Cui Cheng, Researcher of Macroeconomic Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission: Progress and Prospect of Double Carbon Key Technologies

On July 6, the "2023 China Cement Energy Conservation and New Energy Development Conference" sponsored by China Cement Network was held in Chongqing, a mountain city. Cui Cheng, a researcher at the Institute of Macroeconomics of the

National Development and Reform Commission, gave a brilliant speech on the theme of "Progress and Prospects of Key Technologies in the Field of Double Carbon". He said that the proportion of renewable energy in China's primary energy consumption is not high; non-water renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaics is growing rapidly; and the demand for energy storage and regulation will be growing. By 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 25% (from 15.9% to about 20% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period), which means an average annual increase of 0.9 percentage points in the next 10 years, equivalent to an average annual increase of non-fossil energy of about 70 million tons of standard coal.

Cui Cheng said that the high proportion of renewable energy is facing some stage problems, for example, renewable energy is facing peak shaving problems in the short term; the transformation of coal power peak shaving will become the focus; including the burning of ammonia, the use of a small amount of hydrogen energy, etc.; the medium-term energy storage technology will gradually keep up (1:2 expansion relationship), coal power will face the pressure of sunk costs (2:1 narrowing relationship); In the long run, the main problems are seasonal fluctuations and extreme weather effects, and the demand side adjustment must be strengthened. These problems need to be promoted and improved.

Cui Cheng introduced distributed photovoltaic, photovoltaic building integration, perovskite photovoltaic, crystalline silicon photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy, electric vehicle and other related content, he said that wind, light, + energy storage, hydrogen, ammonia, high temperature gas-cooled reactor, small reactor, CCUS and other future technologies are highly uncertain; It is extremely necessary to strengthen R & D and demonstration, but it is not appropriate to carry out construction everywhere. Different stages have different characteristics, so it is necessary to make overall strategic consideration. At the same time, special attention should be paid to the sunk cost of existing equipment and personnel transfer (not only related to cost market competition); early transformation or merger and acquisition of similar industries is a favorable way.