Large base projects have become one of the main supports for the future development of China's new energy industry, but they are still facing three major problems, namely, huge investment, difficulties in absorption and insufficient delivery channels.
On April 27, at the press conference of the National Energy Administration in the second quarter of 2023, the National Energy Administration announced that the third batch of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base projects focusing on desert Gobi desert areas had been identified and the list was officially released.
In the list of the third batch of large base projects, besides the traditional central enterprise power generation group and local energy enterprises, the main investors also appeared in the era of oil giant PetroChina and power battery leader Ningde.
However, it may take some time to see the large base projects of PetroChina and Ningde Times completed and put into operation. On April 26, just before the press conference, the National Energy Administration held a video conference on the situation analysis of renewable energy development and construction in April 2023.
At the meeting, many problems in the construction of the first and second batches of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases were mentioned, including the situation that some projects have not prepared access plans and some transmission projects need to be further accelerated. In addition, the construction progress of supporting electrochemical energy storage and peak shaving facilities for large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases is slow. It is necessary to further consolidate responsibilities, clarify the time limit for rectification, and ensure that large bases are completed and connected to the grid on schedule.
The big base does not seem to be as beautiful as imagined.
After China's energy has entered the "14th Five-Year Plan" development rhythm, the development of new energy will inevitably share the same frequency with the "double carbon" strategy. How to vigorously develop non-fossil energy?
The top leaders have pointed out the direction for the development of new energy. On October 12,
2021, President Xi Jinping attended the 15th Summit of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in Kunming by video and delivered a keynote speech. In his speech, President Xi Jinping proposed that "China will continue to promote the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure, vigorously develop renewable energy, and accelerate the planning and construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base projects in desert, Gobi and desert areas."
Three months later, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System", which clearly put forward the idea of "accelerating the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base projects focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas, and actively promoting the construction of multi-energy complementary clean energy bases in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, Xinjiang and northern Hebei." The construction of
large bases is destined to become the most important part of China's new energy development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
Even earlier in 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the construction of a 10 million kilowatt wind power base in Jiuquan, with a total installed capacity of 10.65 million kilowatts. However, with the construction of large wind power base, the problem of wind power curtailment is also rising, and even once became the main obstacle to the development of wind power. Since 2010, there has been an obvious phenomenon of wind power curtailment in Sanbei area, and then it has been frequent and normalized, with wind power curtailment still exceeding 50% in some areas.
In the past 10 years, the abandonment of wind and light has been an unspeakable pain in the development of China's new energy industry. China has adopted a series of new energy consumption action measures, and the level of renewable energy consumption has been improved. The average utilization rate of wind power in 2021 is 96. However, since 2022, the utilization rate of new energy in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and other provinces has declined.
However, in practice, the negligence of any detail may lead to major mistakes.
1. "A person in charge of a central enterprise investment company told the Energy magazine reporter.".
From 2017 to 2021, the total installed capacity of global power generation increased by less than 10%, but the installed capacity of wind power increased by 55% and photovoltaic power increased by 135%. The average installed capacity of 13 non-Chinese power generation enterprises in the world decreased by 15.2%, and the average power generation decreased by 8.
After entering the new energy era, it is not easy to increase the asset scale of power generation enterprises. The new energy power generation represented by scenery is not only not friendly to the power grid, but also not easy to manage for traditional large enterprises. Compared
with foreign counterparts, China's power generation enterprises can continue to maintain a higher growth rate of installed capacity with the convenience of large-scale centralized development of new energy sources.
"All the enterprises are crowded into the track of the big base." The central enterprise investment company said. On January 30,
2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the Plan for the Planning and Layout of Large-scale Wind Power and Photovoltaic Bases Focusing on Desert, Gobi and Desert Areas (hereinafter referred to as the Plan). The Plan proposes to build a total installed capacity of 455GW in the wind and solar base by 2030. At present, the first batch of 97.05GW wind and solar power bases have been fully started, and some of them have been completed and put into operation; the second batch of projects have been started, with a scale of about 200GW and a direct investment of more than 1.
Huge investment is a huge challenge for power generation enterprises. A person in charge of five major power generation new energy companies said that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the company is expected to invest more than 200 billion yuan in new energy base projects. This is not even the amount of investment that the power generation group with the largest number of projects needs to spend.
"This investment alone is not a small pressure for many companies." The person in charge of the above-mentioned central enterprises told the reporter of Energy magazine, "Some power generation groups have little problems, and some enterprises have poor operating efficiency in recent years, so they do not have such strength." Power generation enterprises that
have spare capacity to invest must also be cautious about the investment of hundreds of billions of yuan. In January 2023, the SASAC held a meeting of the heads of central enterprises. In view of the shortcomings of some central enterprises, such as poor return level, low profit quality, weak market competitiveness and insufficient innovation ability, the meeting decided to adjust the assessment system of central enterprises from "two profits and four rates" to "one profit and five rates".
That is to say, the net profit index is replaced by the return on equity, the profit margin index is replaced by the operating cash ratio, and the asset-liability ratio, the investment intensity of R & D funds and the labor productivity index are retained. Compared
with the net profit index, the return on equity reflects the rate of return on shareholders' investment. The higher the return on equity, the more after-tax profits an enterprise can earn for every 1 yuan invested, which is more in line with the evaluation index of the capital market.
"Such a large-scale investment in a short period of time is unprecedented for an enterprise.". Once the large base project is completed and put into operation, problems may greatly affect the assessment level of the group.
If the large base can only "bask in the sun" there after its completion, there will be no benefit at all. After the completion of the new energy base, the absorption is crucial.
In fact, from a macro point of view, the construction of large bases will greatly improve the installed capacity of new energy power generation in China in the short term, but also put forward higher requirements for absorption.
According to the summary of the Plan, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is planned to build and put into operation a large wind and solar base with a total installed capacity of about 200 GW, including 150 GW for delivery and 50 GW for local self-use, with the proportion of delivery reaching 75%. It is estimated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the total installed capacity of the planned wind and solar base will be about 255 GW, of which about 165 GW will be sent out and about 90 GW will be used locally, accounting for about 65%.
Generally speaking, a DC line can distribute about 10-12 GW of new energy installed capacity at most. Of the 150GW new energy installed capacity in the "14th Five-Year Plan" Wind and Solar Base, about 92GW (accounting for 46%) of the new transmission channel capacity is needed, corresponding to 8-10 DC lines. At present, 4 lines have been planned, with a gap of 4-6 lines. It is assumed that about 50% of the 165 GW installed capacity of the "15th Five-Year Plan" wind and solar base needs to be added to the outgoing channel, that is, corresponding to 7-9 DC lines.
These macro problems may only be the tip of the iceberg of a series of problems in the construction of large bases. The new energy development mode of "centralized development and remote consumption" has encountered serious bottlenecks in China.
2. However, unlike the impression of the public, UHV often has problems such as low utilization rate when transmitting new energy for power generation.
In 2020, the average proportion of renewable energy in 22 UHV transmission channels in China was 46%, a new low in the past five years. On October 24, 2021, the State Council issued the Action Plan for Carbon Peak by 2030, which proposed that "the scale of supporting coal-fired power for trans-regional transmission of renewable energy should be strictly controlled, and the proportion of renewable energy in new channels should not be less than 50% in principle."
For UHV, wind power and photovoltaic power with random fluctuations in power generation as supporting power sources obviously can not meet the safe and stable delivery conditions, so this is the "bundled delivery" of thermal power and new energy.
"Technically speaking, the scenery base is nothing new, but it enlarges the bundled delivery in the traditional power planning." An expert familiar with the power industry told Energy magazine, "The difference is that the installed capacity of large bases is larger now, and the proportion of thermal power and new energy has changed." The supporting power supply scale
of Jiuquan-Hunan ± 800 kV UHVDC transmission project is as high as 15.8 million kilowatts, including 6 million kilowatts of thermal power.
According to the relevant technical documents and the principle of increasing the installed capacity of wind power as much as possible on the premise of meeting the peak regulation balance of the system, a reasonable wind-thermal bundling ratio shall be considered. The reasonable ratio of wind-fire bundling DC transmission in large wind power bases in China is generally 1: 1.5-1: 2. According to the ratio of wind-fire bundling, it is 1:1.
The actual situation is that the 8.4 million kilowatt peak-shaving thermal power project supporting Jiuquan New Energy Base has been included in the power supply construction plan of State Grid Corporation. At present, Guodian 2 × 330,000 kilowatts cogeneration, Datang 803 Power Plant 100,000 kilowatts and Yumen Hydropower Plant 12 have been built.
"According to the original plan, the UHV transmission channel of the large base should achieve a larger scale of supporting power supply, while reducing the proportion of thermal power.". However, from the planning results in recent years, the proportion of thermal power has not decreased. On April 16,
2022, the ± 800 kV UHVDC transmission project from northern Shaanxi to Hubei was officially put into operation. Shaanxi-Wuhan UHV has a rated transmission capacity of 8 million kilowatts, supporting thermal power installed capacity of 8 million kilowatts and new energy installed capacity of 6 million kilowatts. On February 27,
2023, Longdong-Shandong ± 800 kV UHVDC Transmission Project (hereinafter referred to as "Longdong DC Project") was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. The project is the first UHV power transmission project of "integration of wind, solar, thermal and storage" in China. Through the planning, construction and operation of integration of wind, solar, thermal and storage, the outgoing power supply will be expanded and upgraded to 4 million kilowatts of peak-shaving coal-fired power, 6.5 million kilowatts of wind power, 4 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power and 1 million kilowatts (2 hours) of energy storage.
Recently, the Ningxia-Hunan ± 800 kV UHVDC transmission project officially started construction. This is the first UHV transmission channel in China to develop a large desert photovoltaic base and transmit new energy.
Bundling delivery has not been able to make a breakthrough in technology, to a certain extent, it has been limited by the grid-connected mode of the new energy base. Behind this, there is a dispute between power generation enterprises and power grid enterprises in the mode of operation.
As the country's largest "wind, light and fire" bundling transmission base, Hami relies on the established Xinjiang power transmission channel to continuously transmit Hami power to 20 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government). At present, the proportion of new energy generation in Hami's power transmission has reached more than 45%. The ± 800 kV UHVDC transmission project
from Hami to Zhengzhou (hereinafter referred to as "Tianzhong DC") is a major artery of "Xinjiang power transmission" and a classic line of "bundled transmission", from which we can see the characteristics and disputes of grid connection of large bases. The output of thermal power generating units
supporting Tianzhong DC is directly transmitted through Hami Converter Station, while the output of wind power and photovoltaic power supporting thermal power is connected with 750 kV Hami South Substation through 220kV Substation, and then transmitted from Hami South through Hami Converter Station through Tianzhong DC.
"As a result, the operation of wind power and photovoltaic power in large bases actually has an impact on the power flow of the local power grid." The above-mentioned power system experts said, "So even if this wind and solar project is involved in the market transactions in the receiving province, in the sending market, there must be power generation enterprises as virtual trading parties to buy and sell their own electricity."
This creates several problems. First of all, the power grid is fair to all power generation and consumption, including fair access and fair use. However, in the case of trans-provincial new energy transmission, in fact, large base projects (integrated into the local grid) enjoy the priority of using the grid, because they do not bid with the same grid-connected local power sources.
Secondly, because the new energy has turned around in the power grid at the sending end, it means that the power generation enterprises as virtual buyers also need to pay the transmission and distribution fees in the strict sense. "The grid of the sending province is designed according to the maximum output, and the grid of the receiving end is designed according to the maximum load.". Therefore, it is more reasonable for the receiving end user to pay the transmission fee. Relevant personages of power generation enterprises
have publicly expressed the hope that the grid-connected mode of the wind and solar power base will be changed so that wind power and photovoltaic power will not be involved in the local power grid at all, but will be directly connected to the converter station like thermal power. Realize the matching thermal power for their own wind and solar regulation.
Yes, you are right. In fact, under the current grid-connected mode of the new energy base, the supporting thermal power of the project may not be able to adjust its own wind and solar projects. This may lead to the situation that the thermal power of Project B is regulated by the new energy of Project A.
"If all the supporting regulation capabilities are centralized and called by the grid side, it will play a greater role in regulation than decentralized power side, which needs better industrial economic model to support." Wu Jiang, a part-time professor at the School of Applied Economics of the National People's Congress, said.
However, for enterprises, although new energy and supporting thermal power are jointly operated, the actual operation is still subject to others. This is obviously not the most powerful for the maximum economic benefits of enterprises.
On March 21, the "First High-end Forum on Electricity Market" sponsored by China Electric Power Enterprise Federation was held in Beijing. At the meeting, Li Xiangliang, deputy general manager of Huaneng Group, proposed that "through the mode of joint venture + intermodal transport, integrated participation in power grid operation and power market transactions, and the implementation of the main responsibility of balancing large energy bases, we can achieve the overall planning of clean energy development, power grid security and stability support, project economy and other multiple objectives, and achieve the coordination and unification of development and security."
But in the same event, Wang Delin, deputy chief engineer of the State Power Dispatching and Control Center, made it clear when talking about the joint venture of wind, solar, fire and storage, "We encourage overall planning, but the joint venture is not intermodal transport to ensure the safety of the system."
From Wang Delin's statement, we can speculate that the power grid's insistence on "joint operation without intermodal transport" is more from the perspective of safety. For the power grid shouldering the responsibility of UHV security, mastering more thermal power resources will undoubtedly leave more security redundancy for UHV.
However, with the advancement of marketization, the moderate liberalization of dispatching power has become the appeal of more and more enterprises.
"We call on the power grid to be more open and give the right to dispatch small granularity projects to developers." Tian Qingjun, senior vice president of Vision Group, told Energy magazine, "Under the background of more and more and faster development of new energy, too detailed dispatching power is sometimes a burden.". Let developers have certain dispatching rights and be responsible for their own profits and losses, which not only has no impact on system security, but also can improve the investment efficiency of new energy.
However, even if the power generation enterprises get the right to dispatch in a small area as they wish, the operation of large base projects does not mean smooth sailing. In the case of electricity marketization, it may still be unknown whether new energy transactions across provinces and regions really have economic benefits.
4."Insiders who participated in the Longdong DC project to Shandong electric power transaction told the Energy magazine reporter.".
Electricity price is the core link of negotiation between buyers and sellers. Shandong market insiders said that the plan given by Shandong is that all the electricity sent by Longdong DC will follow the market as a spot market price recipient, or according to the curve given by Shandong, only in the period of high demand.
"No way, Shandong is now their own noon time is the negative price period of excess photovoltaic, it is impossible to send photovoltaic." The person familiar with the matter said.
From April 29 to May 3, Shandong's electricity load declined, new energy was developed during the day, and the serious oversupply caused 46 negative electricity prices in real-time spot electricity transactions, of which, from 20:00 on May 1 to 17:00 on May 2, the continuous real-time spot negative electricity price period lasted for 22 hours. The lowest price appeared at 17:00 on May 2, which was-85 yuan/MWh. It is equivalent to that the power generator should use one kilowatt-hour electricity 8.
"The problem is that after the market classification, the superior is the priority.". Then the power is planned and mandatory when it is sent out. Not according to the real market supply and demand. Some power system experts pointed out.
Therefore, in practice, most of the inter-provincial power transactions or power transmission in China are rigid, that is, sometimes the sending place is unwilling to send, and sometimes (more and more often), the receiving place is unwilling to send. Located in the south of Hunan Province
, Huarun Liyujiang Power Plant is a "West-to-East Power Transmission" project, which is connected to Guangdong Power Grid. However, Hunan electric power is in short supply year by year, and there is a serious lack of power supply support in southern Hunan. In 2019, the transfer of Liyujiang Power Plant to Hunan Power Grid has gradually formed a consensus, and has been recognized and supported by the national energy authorities.
It was not until October 2021 that the flexible power supply project of Liyujiang Power Plant was put into operation smoothly. Which province does
a power plant at the junction of two provinces supply power to? This shows the rigidity of trans-regional power transmission.
In fact, China's electricity market is falling into a misunderstanding that the regional market is better than provincial market and the national market is better than regional market, which are all rigid concepts. There is a wide range of markets that allow electricity to flow according to the price, but this market may be composed of many markets, rather than integrated into one.
Integrating into a market and not allowing cross-provincial mobility can not achieve a wider allocation of resources. The way to allow mobility is that inter-provincial power transmission and reception should bear the economic responsibility caused by the province, not the border. The so-called boundary condition = inter-provincial barriers + market fragmentation.
In a sense, the national directive plan and the so-called inter-provincial barriers are two sides of the same coin. Without the mandatory plan, there will be no inter-provincial barriers.
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