Faced with large-scale base projects, many development enterprises are not excited, but worried and anxious.
Under the goal of "double carbon", the double speed development of scenery projects is almost a foregone conclusion in the next 10-15 years. In the first half of 2023, the newly installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power in China exceeded 100 million kilowatts, with a cumulative installed capacity of about 860 million kilowatts, and the power generation capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power reached 730 billion kilowatt H. Wind power photovoltaic industry has become one of the most competitive industries in China. The National Energy Administration predicts that the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power will exceed 160 million kilowatts in 2023. The projects that
support the future growth of new energy sources such as wind and solar energy mainly include the following categories: Shagehuang Base in the Three North Region, Water-Wind-Solar Complementary in the Southwest Region, Offshore Wind Power in the Eastern Region and Photovoltaic Distributed + in the Central Region. Among them, the project of Shagohuang base in Sanbei area is the most important.
At present, the total installed capacity of the three batches of large base projects that have been confirmed is as high as 455 million kilowatts. According to the current plan, almost all of these huge projects will be completed and put into operation by 2030, and these projects add up to trillions of yuan in investment on the power supply side alone. If the power grid, energy storage and other related infrastructure are added, the investment in large base projects is undoubtedly astonishing.
No wonder some executives of power generation enterprises lament that the large base is the largest short-term investment project in the history of power generation enterprises, and the smooth operation of the project can greatly improve the power supply structure of enterprises and speed up the time for power generation enterprises to reach carbon peak and carbon neutralization. If the investment fails or the return is not up to expectations, it may also bring down a large enterprise .
This view is not sensational. Taking the five major power generation companies as an example, except for the relatively low asset-liability ratio of the National Energy Group, the asset-liability ratio of the other companies is about 70%. In the installed structure, the higher the proportion of new energy, the greater the asset-liability ratio of enterprises. The huge investment in large base projects will undoubtedly continue to boost corporate liabilities in the short term, and the overall profitability of power generation enterprises will be greatly affected if there is no good income after the project is put into operation.
In large base projects, the investment of some single projects is as high as tens of billions of yuan, or even hundreds of billions of yuan, and the financial pressure is enormous . Such investment quota, even for the central enterprises with relatively easy financing, is a big challenge, while on the other hand, the marginal space for determining the profit and loss of the project is relatively narrow, so the large base project has a very high requirement for investment control ability, and most companies may not be ready for it.
According to incomplete statistics , at present, more than 80% of the large base projects are in the hands of central or state-owned enterprises, and in order to achieve the expected construction goals, most of these projects have been set various timetables and road maps. In the public statements of many enterprises, it is not difficult to see the degree of tension and anxiety of enterprises about the promotion of large base projects. But in fact, the common expression of "tight time and heavy tasks" is not suitable for large base projects. If we build a large base with the development rhythm of conventional projects, it may bring unexpected huge risks. Compared
with the conventional scenery project, the large base project is a more complex system engineering. It not only needs to build new energy power stations, but also needs to support coal-fired power, energy storage and transmission channels. In addition, it also needs to coordinate the receiving end market and electricity price . Any mistake in any link will affect the normal operation of the whole project.
Taking the transmission channel as an example, as one of the biggest constraints in the construction of large base projects, once the construction of the channel lags behind, after the completion of the large base project, there will be the risk of large-scale wind and light abandonment and "sun bask ing", compared with the planning and construction of power supply. At present, the construction of the corridor is obviously lagging behind .
"Centralized development and remote absorption" is one of the main characteristics of large base projects, which is precisely the biggest weakness of new energy project development, because the biggest competitive advantage of new energy projects is just the opposite- "distributed development and local absorption" .
Therefore, the commencement of large base projects should be based on the timetable determined by the key supporting facilities and the receiving end market conditions, and accurately match the construction schedule, so as to avoid the phenomenon that the power generation units are put into operation on schedule, while the key supporting facilities are idle or lagging behind, and then the power generation facilities are idle for a long time.
There is no doubt that economy is the lifeline of a project, and the decision-making of a project should be carried out around economy. Therefore, we should not neglect the complexity and systematicness of large bases in pursuit of construction speed, which will lead to idle equipment and serious waste of resources.
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