1. Photovoltaic glass is mainly used for the front and rear cover plates of solar cell modules. It has the characteristics of high solar transmittance, low absorption reflectivity, high temperature corrosion resistance and high strength. It can improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency of solar cell modules and protect the modules for a long time.
Compared with traditional glass, photovoltaic glass has the characteristics of low iron content, high light transmittance, high temperature resistance, oxidation resistance and corrosion resistance to meet the harsh environmental requirements of long-term open-air operation of solar cells and to resist the impact of extreme weather. From the production point of view, the main raw materials of photovoltaic glass and ordinary glass are the same, mainly including quartz sand, soda ash, etc., but in terms of raw material quality, material ratio, process system design, furnace structure, operation system, control system and product quality standards, the requirements of photovoltaic glass are higher than those of ordinary glass. Ordinary glass production line can not be easily converted to photovoltaic glass production line; From the product point of view, the demand for photovoltaic glass in terms of transmittance and protection performance is significantly higher than that of traditional glass.
1. According to the statistics and forecast of CPIA, the proportion of 182 mm and 210 mm silicon wafers has reached 82.8% in 2022. Its share is expected to reach 93 in 2023.
, double-glass modules have multiple advantages, such as higher power generation, longer life cycle, stronger weather resistance, wear resistance and corrosion resistance, and their market share is increasing rapidly. According to the CPIA, the penetration rate of double glass modules will be 40% in 2022. The increase in the penetration rate of double glass modules will drive the development of thin photovoltaic glass. With the development trend of large-scale and lightweight photovoltaic modules and the increasing penetration of double-glass modules, photovoltaic glass as a packaging material is also developing towards large-scale and thin on the premise of ensuring the reliability of modules. The thickness of photovoltaic glass is mainly 3.2 mm, 2.5 mm and less than 2.5 mm; Among them, 3.2 mm photovoltaic glass is mainly used in single-glass modules, 2.5 mm and 2. With the increase of permeability of double-glass modules, the thickness is less than
2.1. TCO coated glass is a layer of transparent conductive oxide film uniformly coated on the surface of flat glass by physical or chemical coating method. Mainly comprises indium, tin, zinc and cadmium oxides and composite multi-element oxide films thereof. Because the middle semiconductor layer of thin film solar cells has almost no lateral conductivity, the role of TCO glass in thin film solar cells is not only to transmit light and reduce reflection, but also to collect current.
According to the coating process, TCO glass is divided into online coating and offline coating TCO glass; according to the film composition, it is divided into ITO-TCO glass, FTO-TCO glass and AZO-TCO glass.
Thin film solar cells have the characteristics of low attenuation, light weight, low material consumption, low preparation energy consumption, good weak light effect, suitable for combination with buildings and so on. At present, the commercial thin film solar cells mainly include copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), cadmium telluride (CdTe), gallium arsenide (GaAs) and so on. According to NREL, the best efficiency of cadmium telluride thin film cell (CdTe on glass) is 22.1% in the laboratory, 19.5% in the module laboratory, and 15-18% in the average production line; Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) thin film solar cell laboratory efficiency record is 23.35%, module laboratory efficiency is about 19.
According to CPIA, the global production capacity of thin film solar cells in 2021 is 10.7 GW, and the output is about 8.28 GW. In terms of market share, the output of thin film battery modules accounted for 3% of the total module output in 2021. In terms of product types, cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) are the main types of thin film batteries. CdTe thin film battery yield 8.
The General Code for Building Energy Conservation and Renewable Energy Utilization, which was formally implemented on April 1, 2022, requires that new buildings should install solar energy systems, and that the design of integrated solar building application systems should be completed simultaneously with the architectural design. The implementation of this policy further opens up the incremental market space for the application of BIPV in new buildings.
According to the statistics of China Curtain Wall Network, in 2021, the output value of curtain wall in China will be 122.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 0. We assume that the growth rate of completed area of construction industry in 2022-2025 will be -10%/2%/1%/1% respectively. The growth rate of curtain wall market is 2%/3% respectively. Benefiting from the mandatory requirements of new industry regulations for the installation of photovoltaic in new buildings, the penetration rate of BIPV in the curtain wall market is expected to increase rapidly. It is estimated that the penetration rate of BIPV in building curtain wall from 2022 to 2025 will be 3%/10%/15%/20% respectively, and it is optimistically predicted that the penetration rate of BIPV in curtain wall market will be 5%/15%/25%/30%. It is estimated that the market size of BIPV photovoltaic curtain wall in 2022-2025 is about 37.5/128.8/198.9/27.32 billion yuan. It is optimistically estimated that the market size is about 62.5/193.1/331.5/409.
Perovskite solar cells are solar cells using perovskite structure materials as light-absorbing materials, which belong to the representative of the third generation thin film cells. Compared with crystalline silicon solar cells, perovskite solar cells have the advantages of high limit conversion efficiency, low production cost, simple preparation process, light weight, high flexibility and customization. According to NREL's latest best laboratory cell conversion efficiency chart, the highest laboratory efficiency of perovskite single-junction cells is 25.7%, and the best laboratory conversion efficiency of perovskite crystalline silicon tandem cells is 32. TCO coated glass is an important part of perovskite cells. The demand for TCO coated glass is expected to increase.
2. Supply is relatively excessive, and the price at the bottom of the cycle is under pressure
. 2. From the perspective of application, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China in 2022 is 87.41 GW, an increase of 59.13% over the same period last year. Among them, the newly installed distributed photovoltaic capacity is 51.1 GW, an increase of 74.6% over the same period last year; Centralized installed capacity increased by 36.3 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 41. China's new PV installed capacity ranked first in the world for 10 consecutive years, and the cumulative installed capacity ranked first in the world for 8 consecutive years. From the domestic demand side, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the total planned new photovoltaic installed capacity of each province is 545 GW, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to maintain rapid growth. According to the CPIA forecast, under optimistic circumstances, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China will be about 120 GW in 2023.
From the perspective of manufacturing, in 2022, the national output of PV modules was 288.7 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.8%; the export volume of PV modules was 153.5 GW.The export amount was US $46.38 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 85.22%. In 2022, the supply of silicon, the main material of PV modules, was tight and the price increased significantly, resulting in a slowdown in the pace of production expansion of module enterprises. In 2023, with the release of new production capacity of silicon materials, the supply side of silicon materials turns loose, the price is expected to return to a reasonable range, the upstream cost suppression factors of photovoltaic module enterprises tend to ease, photovoltaic module enterprises are expected to accelerate the expansion of production, and the demand side of photovoltaic glass is supported. Forecast
of global PV glass demand
in 2022-2025 1) According to the forecast of Jibang Consulting, the global newly installed PV capacity in 2023 is 350.6 GW; According to InfoLink Consulting, the growth rate of new PV installations in the world in 2024-2025 is about 17% -20%, and we forecast a growth rate of 15%; From 2023 to 2025, the newly added PV installed capacity will be 350.6/403.2/463.2 respectively.) Capacity ratio: According to the Code for Design of Photovoltaic Power Stations (Draft for Comments) issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the capacity ratio of Class I/II/III solar energy resource areas should not exceed 1.2/1.4/1.8 respectively. We adopt 1.3) The penetration rate of double glass modules in the market is increasing year by year due to its advantages such as power generation gain, anti-PID and long life cycle. According to the forecast of CPIA, the penetration rate of double glass modules in 2023-2025 will be 45%/50%/55% respectively. 2.5 mm and 2.0 mm PV glass are mainly used in double-glass modules, 2023-2025 2.4) Referring to the relevant announcement of CSG A, the consumption of 3.2 mm PV glass in 1 GW single-glass modules is 578 m2. 2.0/2 of 1 GW double-glass modules. Based on the fact that 1 ton is equivalent to 3.2/2.5/
2.2, the continuous boom of downstream photovoltaic modules and the strong demand for photovoltaic glass combined with the excess earnings reserved during the period of tight supply boosted the enthusiasm of photovoltaic glass enterprises to expand production. At the same time, the demand for large-sized and thin-sized photovoltaic glass is increasing due to the large size of silicon wafers and the lightweight requirements of photovoltaic modules. Some of the original small kilns can not meet the production requirements, which drives the technological transformation or new production lines of photovoltaic glass enterprises. As of the end of January 2023, there are 104 photovoltaic glass kilns and 401 production lines in China, with a total production capacity of 79000 T/D, an increase of 91.2022 and January 2023 compared with the same period last year. A total of 36 photovoltaic glass production lines have been put into operation in China, with a total daily melting volume of 37,600 T/D; According to the hearing of photovoltaic glass production line projects under construction and proposed to be held in each province in 2022, the total daily melting volume of production lines planned to be put into operation in 2023-2025 is 9.60/5.36/1.
The contradiction between supply and demand is intensified, and the price is running at a low level. Since 2022, the new production capacity of photovoltaic glass has increased, while the supply of silicon, the main material of photovoltaic modules, has been in short supply, which has led to the low start-up of photovoltaic module enterprises and insufficient demand support, resulting in the aggravation of the contradiction between supply and demand and the low price. As of 2023/2/15, the price of 3.2 mm/2.5 mm coated photovoltaic glass was 26.5/19.5 yuan/square meter, an increase of 6.0/1.6% over the same period last year. Compared with the high price of 43/35 yuan/square meter at the beginning of 2020, the price of photovoltaic glass decreased by 38.4%/44. We believe that the price of photovoltaic glass will remain low and fluctuate under the current situation of abundant supply.
of the supply of photovoltaic glass in China
from 2023 to 2025 1) According to the above forecast of the demand side of photovoltaic glass, considering the finished product rate of the original sheet and the finished product rate of deep processing, it can be calculated that the supply and demand are balanced. From 2023 to 2025, the global supply of photovoltaic glass is 3035/3539/41.21 million tons. 2) According to CPIA, the output of photovoltaic glass in China accounts for about 90% of the global total output, so under the condition of supply and demand balance, the supply of photovoltaic glass in China is about 2732/3185/37.09 million tons in 2023-2025. The corresponding daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.43/9.83/11.3 respectively. Assuming that only the leading industries such as Flat, Xinyi Solar Energy, Luoyang Glass, Nanbo A, Qibin Group and Ancai Gaoke will expand their production in the future, the new ignition capacity is expected to be 3.62/1.88/0 in 2023-2025. It is estimated that the actual production capacity of photovoltaic glass in China in 2023-2025 is about 9.30/12.04/13.22 million T/D, which is higher than 10.2%/22.5%/15 of the production capacity when supply and demand are balanced.
In the current situation that the price of photovoltaic glass is running at a low level and the price of raw materials and fuels is rising sharply, which leads to the pressure on the profitability of photovoltaic glass enterprises, the willingness of photovoltaic glass enterprises to continue to expand production may be weakened. In addition, in November 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments proposed in the Notice on Consolidating the Positive Trend of Recovery and Strengthening the Industrial Economy to carry out early warning of photovoltaic rolled glass production capacity and guide the rational layout of photovoltaic rolled glass projects. It is expected that subsequent provinces will continue to regulate the number, scale and production time of new projects. Based on the production capacity of photovoltaic glass, according to the situation of photovoltaic glass projects under construction in Anhui Province announced by the Department of Industry and Information Technology, the construction rhythm of most projects under construction has slowed down, and the actual production time has been delayed compared with the planned production time. The proportion
of large-size silicon wafers is increasing year by year. According to the statistics and forecast of CPIA, the proportion of 182/210 mm silicon wafers has reached 82.8% in 2022. It is expected that the proportion will reach 93 in 2023. Some photovoltaic glass kilns built earlier can not meet the production requirements of 210 mm large-size modules for photovoltaic glass. We have counted 104 kilns with a total daily melting capacity of 79000 T/D in major photovoltaic glass enterprises, of which 50 kilns have a daily melting capacity of less than 700 T/D, accounting for 28% of the total production capacity. And this part of production capacity is mainly concentrated in small and medium-sized enterprises with limited capital strength in the industry. Under the background of continuous pressure on the profit level of the superimposed industry, we believe that this part of production capacity is expected to gradually withdraw, and the phenomenon of excessive production capacity in the photovoltaic glass industry will be marginally improved.
3 Duopoly pattern is clear, cost advantage is the core competitiveness
of photovoltaic glass industry, based on its investment threshold (the total investment of a new 1200t/d photovoltaic calendering glass furnace is about 1 billion yuan), technical threshold, environmental protection threshold is high, with certain barriers to entry. The industry structure is relatively concentrated. At the end of 2022, the total market share of Xinyi Solar Energy and Flat, the top two in the photovoltaic glass industry, was about 50%. Nanbo A, China Building Materials, Rainbow New Energy, Ancai Gaoke, Amadon and other top ten enterprises accounted for about 85%.
Luoyang Glass completed the equity transfer of three wholly-owned subsidiaries, namely Longmen Glass, Longhai Glass and Bengbu Zhongxian; expanded the business layout of new energy materials and entrusted Triumph Technology Group with the equity related to thin film solar cell business such as Chengdu CNBM, Ruichang CNBM and Triumph Photovoltaic. In 2022, Tongcheng New Energy under Luoyang Glass successfully realized the ignition and commissioning of the first 1200 T/D photovoltaic glass production line, and the production scale was further expanded; At present, the proposed projects of Luoyang Glass Planning, including Luoyang New Energy, Yixing New Energy, Zigong New Energy and Northern Glass, have completed the hearing procedures of construction projects, and the subsequent expansion capacity reserves are sufficient.
By the end of January 2023, Qibin Group has put into operation two photovoltaic rolled glass production lines (Chenzhou Photovoltaic Second Line in April 2022 and Zhangzhou Photovoltaic First Line in January 2023), with a total capacity of 2400T/D.According to the announcement of the hearing on photovoltaic glass held by the company and the relevant provincial office of industry and information technology, it is expected that five production lines will be built in succession in 2023 (Zhangzhou Photovoltaic Second Line, Ninghai First Line and Second Line in Ningbo, Zhejiang, Zhaotong First Line and Second Line in Yunnan), and the production capacity will reach 8400 T/D by the end of 2023; The production capacity is expected to increase to 15600T/D by the end of 2025. The company's photovoltaic rolled glass production line is 1200T/D large kiln production line, which has the production capacity of ultra-thin and large-size glass products, in line with the current development trend of large-size, lightweight and double-glass penetration of photovoltaic modules. The company's photovoltaic glass business relies on its own resources, high-quality ultra-white quartz sand supply, advanced technology of new production lines and other advantages, which is expected to quickly rank in the forefront of the industry and become a new growth pole of the company's performance. In 2022 H1, the gross profit rate of Flat/Xinyi Solar/Luoyang Glass/Rainbow New Energy Photovoltaic Glass Business was 23.02%/26.7%/9.71%/14.97%, respectively, which was 12.68/14.40/10.58/6 lower than that in 2021. The gross profit rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises has declined, but the gross profit rate of first-line leaders such as Flat and Xinyi Solar Energy is still 10% -15% higher than that of second-line leaders.
According to the relevant data in the prospectus of Freite, 745 kg of low-iron quartz sand, 254 kg of soda ash, 120 kg of dolomite, 117 kg of limestone and 14 kg of mirabilite are needed to produce 1 ton of photovoltaic glass; low-iron quartz sand is the most used in the production of photovoltaic glass. Quartzite ore is a non-renewable resource, with the gradual exploitation, the overall resource reserves decline, resulting in an increase in resource prices. With the continuous strengthening of environmental protection and safety production supervision in recent years, enterprises that fail to meet the safety production conditions or environmental protection standards have been closed down and stopped production. In addition, the policy side has tightened the control of mineral development, and the growth of quartzite production is far less than that of the demand side. In 2021, the output of quartz sand in China will be 91.23 million tons, and the demand will be 94.6 million tons; the average price of raw quartz sand (tax included) will be approximately RMB200/ton, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%; the price of raw quartz sand will increase by approximately 20% from 2017 to 2021.
In the current environment of scarcity of high-quality glass quartzite mineral resources, the increase in the purchase price of quartz sand for photovoltaic glass production enterprises has put pressure on the cost side; at the same time, external procurement can not guarantee the stable and continuous supply of quartz sand, and the quality of products produced by processing plants is uneven, which affects the yield and yield of photovoltaic glass production. Therefore, in recent years, photovoltaic glass enterprises have acquired mining rights and built new quartz sand production bases to ensure the safety and quality stability of sand.
In 2022, the prices of petroleum fuels and natural gas increased significantly and fluctuated sharply, and the prices of 2022Q2-Q3 were at a high level. According to iFinD, the annual increase of petroleum coke/fuel oil/LNG reached 87.6%/29.3%/79.3%, and the price fluctuation reached 101.0%/29.5%/118. Glass enterprises such as Qibin Group and Follett have installed dual-fuel systems of petroleum fuel and natural gas on glass furnaces to optimize the allocation and use of natural gas and petroleum fuel. In addition, the production of photovoltaic glass has the characteristics of rigidity, the structural design of the kiln directly affects the production efficiency and production cost, the large kiln has a higher melting rate and chip yield, its internal combustion and temperature are more stable, the required raw materials and energy consumption are less, so that the production efficiency of photovoltaic glass is higher and the production cost is lower. Therefore, the new production line has a certain "advantage of backwardness".
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