At present, soda ash is in a tight balance, but the glass factory takes the initiative to reduce the storage, and the price of soda ash is difficult to exceed the previous high. After that, with the start-up of the plant, the supply will increase substantially, and soda ash will gradually shift from supply and demand pricing to cost pricing. However, at present, the industrial chain is still in a state of low inventory, which may continue for some time.
First, the tight supply situation gradually alleviated
the production capacity, in February, a set of boilers in Haitian was damaged and overhauled for 30-40 days, affecting the production capacity of 15000-20000 tons, Longshan overhauled for 4 days, affecting the production capacity of 5000 tons, Henan Mengzhou overhauled for 9 days, affecting the production capacity of 8000 tons. In March, the planned overhaul of Southern Alkali Industry affected 18000 tons of production capacity. At present, the operating rate of soda ash is maintained at about 91%. As the production profit is very good, it is expected that the plant will maintain a high operating rate before June. Soda ash plants should be overhauled at least once a year, and the overhaul peak is from July to September, so the operating rate will drop dramatically. In terms of new plants, 200,000 tons of Hongsifang production capacity is expected to be put into operation in March, 600,000 tons of Debon production capacity is expected to be delayed to the end of the year, 200,000 tons of Xiangyu production capacity is expected to be delayed to the third quarter, 1.5 million tons of yuanxing first-line production capacity will be put into operation in June, and 1.5 million tons of second-line production capacity will be put into operation in July. Overall, before May, the new capacity was less, the operating rate was more than 90%, and the weekly output was about 610 thousand tons. The operating rate will drop to 75% -85% during the maintenance peak from July to September.
Second, the low inventory state of the industrial chain is expected to continue
in the short term, and the operating load of individual enterprises will increase, which will drive the operating rate of soda ash to continue to increase. At present, the profitability of soda ash manufacturers is good, and the orders are sufficient. It is reported that the orders are basically received until the end of the month or the beginning of next month, and the operating rate is expected to remain high in the middle of next month. On the demand side, real estate boosted market sentiment as a whole, float glass profits improved, production lines originally planned for cold repair began to be postponed, and the ignition resumption plan increased, which will bring incremental demand for soda ash. In addition, the follow-up photovoltaic ignition plan is still more, the demand increment of photovoltaic glass for soda ash is expected to continue, the recent purchasing supply of traders is tight, the soda ash inventory continues to decline, and the low inventory state of the soda ash industry chain is expected to continue in the short term.
Third, the willingness of traders to sell the market is relatively strong, and the glass factory has a high degree
of participation in receiving goods. At present, there are 20,000-30,000 tons of soda ash in the warehouse, which has increased since the end of December last year. Compared with 110,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory is still at a low level. Similar to the situation in previous years, the Qinghai-Xizang Railway and Beijing Bureau completed their transportation tasks in October last year, and in order to control the shipment safely, the inventory of the delivery warehouse declined at an accelerated pace. An important change is that last year, soda ash enterprises used the delivery warehouse as the frontier warehouse, and this year, the amount of direct delivery of docking downstream increased. Last year, it was necessary to pay a deposit of 30 yuan/ton in advance to lock in the storage capacity. This year, it can be ordered at any time. Traders have a strong willingness to sell the market, and glass factories have a high degree of participation in receiving goods.
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