valuation side, From the driving point of view, glass is a typical variety under the current macro and micro demand resonance, after the early real estate sales repair, developers'funds have eased, micro survey data show that the construction of uncompleted buildings around the country has also improved significantly. With the benign transmission of "sales recovery-capital flow improvement-guaranteed delivery", the overall demand for glass continues to rise and is still not over. The seasonal weakening of the production and sales rate in the short-term mainstream sales area is affected by holidays and seasonal factors, and the short-term enthusiasm for glass delivery may be weakened to a certain extent, or bring about a stage correction of the market, but the certainty of maintaining a high demand for completion throughout the year is greater, and the medium-term upward drive remains unchanged. In respect of soda ash, the production of yuanxing Energy will be maintained as planned, and the supply and demand pattern of soda ash will be gradually relaxed in the future. High-frequency data show that the operating rate of soda ash is still at a historical high of 94%, although float + Research Report Text 1. Glass soda ash industry chain profits are gradually redistributed to glass." As of May 4, 2023, the transaction price of the corresponding delivery products of Shahe Glass was 2084. According to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong, in the week at the end of April, the average weekly profit of float glass fueled by natural gas, coal gas and petroleum coke was 285,272 and 577 yuan/ton. With the increase of spot price and the decrease of cost, the profit of each glass production line was significantly restored. The current 05 contract basis is 69, the 09 contract basis is 346, and the May-September contract basis is 277. As for soda ash, as of May 4, 2023, the theoretical profit of ammonia-soda process was 877 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of combined soda process (double tons) was 1378. At present, the price of heavy alkali from mainstream manufacturers such as Haihua has dropped to 2650-2700 yuan, and the negative feedback is still continuing. Glass soda ash 05 price difference -555, 09 price difference -313. It can be seen that the price difference between spot and futures of glass soda ash has been greatly reduced, the profit of glass has been significantly restored, while the profit of soda ash has been greatly reduced. Glass is a typical variety under the current macro and micro demand resonance. According to our previous report, due to the delayed delivery of a large number of construction projects accumulated last year and the new start-up data which are not low in 2020, if the completion demand for delayed and normal delivery is released centrally, the completion volume in 2023 will still be considerable, and referring to the completion level in 2021, we believe that the growth rate of glass demand in the whole year is between 1. Housing completion increased significantly in the first quarter of this year, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 14.7% in the first quarter, including a year-on-year increase of 32% in March. In fact, since last year, local governments have introduced continuous easing and incentive policies from the demand side. Since mid-November, the supply side policy has been further increased, and the financing environment of real estate enterprises has ushered in a turning point. After the improvement of cash flow of private enterprises, the primary task is to guarantee the delivery of buildings. In the first quarter, real estate sales improved significantly, and the decline in real estate sales area in the first quarter narrowed sharply to -1. After the previous sales repair, the current developers'funds have eased, the heat of the land market in first-tier cities has rebounded, and the micro-survey data show that the construction of uncompleted buildings around the country has also improved significantly. With the benign transmission of "sales recovery-capital flow improvement-guaranteed delivery", the overall demand for glass continues to rise and is still not over. Recently, especially during the May Day holiday, the production and sales rate of the mainstream sales area has weakened seasonally. On the one hand, the inventory of the downstream deep-processing original glass was basically replenished to 7-8%, and some downstream began to have a psychological resistance to high-priced glass, and the enthusiasm for chasing up the original glass was reduced; on the other hand, from the perspective of capital return and orders, the overall recovery of the downstream remained neutral, and there was a disturbance to the construction demand in the subsequent rainy season, so the enthusiasm for taking glass may be weakened to a certain extent. However, considering the certainty of maintaining high demand for completion throughout the year, it is difficult for the market to fall deeply under the background of strong spot. As of the 20230504, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in China was 2.264 million tons, a ring-to-ring ratio of-1.04%. Overall, the current negative feedback of soda ash is still continuing. Although we still need to pay attention to the fact that the supply release caused by the slight delay of yuanxing's production and the high temperature power limitation in summer is less than expected, and the rebound of futures prices caused by the spot stabilization-inventory phase, the loose expectation of soda ash supply and demand pattern is more certain, and the medium and long-term bearish pattern remains unchanged. From the cost side, There is a strong certainty that the glass cost is strong before and weak after. From the driving point of view, the second half of the year is the peak season for glass demand, and the third quarter replenishment drive can still be expected under the background of continuous real estate repair, while the 01 contract is the off-season glass contract, the long-term demand for real estate is difficult to sustain optimism, and the 01 market will maintain a low valuation state.
. In addition, Jiangsu Debang's production capacity of 600,000 tons is expected to be put into operation in June, Jinshan Chemical's production capacity of 2 million tons is expected to be put into operation from the end of September to the beginning of October 2022, and the supply and demand pattern of soda ash will be gradually relaxed in the future. </p><p style=)
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