According to the market news, the price war in Guangdong market is about to start, China Resources Cement has taken the lead in reducing the price by 20 yuan/ton, Conch Cement will follow up the downward adjustment, the "shopping" of both sides is about to be staged, other cement enterprises in the region are also difficult to stand alone, the probability of follow-up, a "melee" is about to begin.
However, the Guangdong side of the "fight" is happy, can harm the Guangxi market.
According to the market news, while the price war in Guangdong started, the cement enterprises in Guangxi also made some moves. Some private tycoons in Guangxi said that the Guangdong market was blocked and that they should try their best to grab the market share of Guangxi at all costs. In addition, according to local cement enterprises in Guangdong, "China Resources has been very fierce recently. After the price reduction, it is indeed very competitive. It is estimated that it will be very difficult for cement enterprises in Guangxi to come down this time.".
Guangdong cement market "warlord chaos"
, "this year's Guangdong cement industry market situation or more severe than last year", after China Cement Network survey of the Guangdong market, local industry veterans said.
It is understood that the annual demand for cement in the real estate industry in Guangdong exceeds 50 million tons, accounting for more than 40% of the total demand for cement in Guangdong. In recent years, the development trend of the real estate industry has declined and the market demand has shrunk, which has a great impact on the cement market in Guangdong.
In the context of declining real estate demand, the industry will pay more attention to the field of large infrastructure, but the promotion of large infrastructure is difficult to change the downward trend of the cement industry.
On the one hand, the pull of infrastructure on cement is limited, and there are obvious regional restrictions; on the other hand, large infrastructure is also facing financial difficulties, if the problem of funds can not be effectively solved, the implementation of large infrastructure is also difficult. In addition, large infrastructure overdraws future cement demand to a certain extent, and in the long run, it can not change the industry dilemma.
Local industry insiders said that from a worldwide perspective, the cyclical development of the cement industry determines that after experiencing the peak demand, it will inevitably fall back, which is an objective law, and it is difficult to change artificially.
In addition, Guangdong's cement industry plans to stop kilns for at least 60 days this year. However, according to the current market situation, 60 days of off-peak time may be difficult to have a fundamental impact on the contradiction between supply and demand of cement in Guangdong.
Guangdong is a province with large cement production capacity. Data from China Cement Network show that Guangdong's clinker production capacity has reached 106.22 million tons, ranking second in the country, second only to Anhui Province. The region also has Conch Cement, China Resources Cement, Taiwan Cement, Tapai Cement , Zhongnan Cement, Everbright Cement and other large enterprises with strong strength.
Next, the Guangdong cement market "warlord chaos" I am afraid it is difficult to avoid. It is
interesting that even if the price war starts in Guangdong cement market, it will be difficult to hurt the root in the short term because of the strong strength of the major enterprises in the region. On the contrary, the upstream Guangxi market will not be so "lucky", and the smoke of Guangdong market will probably hit the Guangxi market first.
It is understood that the demand for cement in Guangxi has declined significantly since this year due to the decline in real estate situation and insufficient capital construction. The overall decline in the first half of the year may reach 2-3%, and the annual demand is expected to be less than 70 million tons. In sharp contrast
to the downward trend of the demand side, the supply side of Guangxi cement has continued to increase in recent years. According to the data of China Cement Network, in 2022 alone, 11.873 million tons of new cement clinker production capacity will be put into production in Guangxi, and the total production capacity of cement clinker in Guangxi will reach 103 million tons, ranking fourth in the country.
Unlike other places, the cement industry in Guangxi is dominated by large-scale production lines, with 75 production lines in the whole region, only 11 below 2500 t/d, most of which are 5000 tons or more, and the actual cement production capacity is more than 170 million tons, but the demand for cement in the whole region in 2022 is only more than 70 million tons. In addition, the export of cement is more than 90 million tons, and the production capacity is seriously excessive.
"After the new production line is put into production, market space is needed, but the overall market demand is shrinking, and pressure at both ends leads to great downward pressure on the market," said local industry insiders. Once the price war in Guangdong market starts in an all-round way, the Guangxi market may fall into more serious price competition.
Recently, many large cement enterprises, including Conch Cement, have made it clear that in order to stabilize or even increase market share, in the context of declining market demand, it means that the market competition in the later period may be more cruel. Guangdong has always been a hot market for domestic cement, and now it is difficult to avoid falling into a price war. In the future, including the East China market, the pressure of competition may further increase.
However, market competition is also a process of survival of the fittest, "killing a batch", perhaps the industry can better unite, better face the future development, where the market will go in the later period, we will wait and see.
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