2022, Within https://price.ccement.com/Price_list-1-s0-e0-p0-c0-k100059-b0. months, the price of cement in the Yangtze River Delta not only fell below the "3" prefix, but also hit a five-year low. The current price is undoubtedly running on the cost line, and some enterprises may suffer losses. If the unfavorable situation is not reversed in time, the cement market in the Yangtze River Basin may fall into the abyss in the first half of 2023.
In the second half of the year, the price of clinker fell more or rose less than "flameout"
of imported clinker, which was still hot in 2021, and the import of foreign clinker in the second half of the year decreased by more than 90% compared with the same period last year. Domestic clinker prices fell more or rose less, and the price gap between inside and outside narrowed until it was upside down. In less than
a year, the market is surprising with lightning speed. In addition to the two consecutive rounds of 20 yuan/ton increase in the price of clinker in the Yangtze River Delta in July last year, the peak season expected by the market did not come, but the price was more freezing.
the multi-party game, we should think calmly and work together to maintain the ecological
industry. The Yangtze River Basin is the core battlefield of domestic cement giants. The gathering of tycoons has both advantages and disadvantages. The plasticity of the market is enhanced under high concentration, but the game can also be more cruel under sudden change of demand.
With Hubei in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as the center, upstream and downstream enterprises are colliding fiercely in the downward demand period. Over the past five years, focusing on supply-side structural reform, cement enterprises in the Yangtze River Basin have set a national model in strictly controlling new production capacity, eliminating backward production capacity, promoting mergers and acquisitions, and strictly implementing peak staggering production.
How to avoid the current collision to plunge the market into the abyss?
Firstly, the policy side should make further efforts to optimize the measures
of peak staggering production. From the perspective of major regions in the country, the main clinker producing areas in the Yangtze River Basin (Yangtze River Delta, Hubei) have become the areas with the shortest time and the most relaxed implementation of peak staggering production. In 2021, the main producing areas accounted for a quarter of the national clinker output, which is the core producing area of domestic cement clinker.
According to the implementation plan of peak-shifting production announced by each province, the peak-shifting production time of the main producing areas in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 is generally 60-70 days, and some enterprises can even stop half of the peak-shifting production period due to the high energy efficiency ranking or the ability of co-disposal. At the same time, some provinces have even reduced the planned shutdown time, which is obviously different from the practice in most parts of the country.
According to the data of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, in 2022, except for the main producing areas in the Yangtze River Basin, the peak staggering production time in most parts of the country has been significantly extended, and some regions have even established a cross-regional joint peak staggering mechanism. The strengthening of policies depends not only on the promotion of government departments, but also on the response of enterprises.
On the contrary, in the Yangtze River Basin, taking Hubei as an example, the production time of staggered peak in some neighboring provinces, such as Henan, Hunan, Chongqing and Shaanxi, has reached more than 100 days, while the 55 clinker production lines of Hubei Cement Production Enterprises Staggered Peak Production Plan for 2022 issued by Hubei Province have stopped kilns for 3128 days. On average, each line has been shut down for less than 60 days, and about 12% of the production lines have been shut down for less than 30 days. Most " in 2022 In addition, it is reported that the production plan for peak staggering in Hubei Province in 2023 is basically the same as that in 2022. If considering the actual implementation of 20 days more kiln shutdown time in 2022, the peak staggering time in Hubei will be reduced by about 20 days in 2023. According to the data of China Cement Network, Hubei Province has 6444 clinker production capacity.
There is a huge difference in kiln shutdown time between adjacent provinces, coupled with the lack of communication with downstream Anhui and other places on peak staggering arrangements, which is bound to aggravate the imbalance of policy implementation.
The author believes that it is necessary for similar provinces to maintain a relatively fair time arrangement for peak staggering production, while the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (Hubei, Jiangxi, Yangtze River Delta) should establish a linkage mechanism for peak staggering production, further strengthen regional communication, rationally adjust the time of peak staggering production, avoid falling into disorderly peak staggering, and avoid falling into disorderly peak staggering. Cause market chaos.
At present, the ratio of clinker and cement storage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is over 70%, reaching a high level in the same period. As the core market of the whole country, the cement market in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has an important impact on the national trend. If the problem of high inventory can not be solved in time and effectively under the pressure of huge decline in demand in the first quarter of 2023, The industry may fall into a state of insecurity.
The author believes that cement enterprises, especially regional leading enterprises, should strengthen dialogue, coordination and communication mechanism, take all feasible and reasonable measures, resolutely accelerate the industry's de-inventory speed, hold back the bottom line of prices, avoid falling into persistent vicious competition, repeat historical mistakes, and open a good year for 2023.
According to the statistics of Cement Big Data Research Institute, the planned new production capacity in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 2023 is nearly 10 million tons. Under the current contradiction between supply and demand, if the new production capacity is released as scheduled, it will inevitably aggravate the pressure on the operation of the industry, and the loss of the industry may expand.
The author appeals that the leading enterprises in the Yangtze River Basin should play an exemplary role in the long-term interests of the whole industry, take the lead in the work of capacity removal, resolutely consolidate the achievements of supply-side reform, and be cautious in new projects, so as to jointly create a new ecological environment for the industry.
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