供需矛盾持续激化!2023 年长江流域水泥市场恐有一“劫”!

2023-01-16 09:01:00

如何避免当前这种碰撞令市场陷入深渊?笔者认为,水泥企业、市场管理者、上下游企业等多方市场参与者应冷静思考,携手维护行业生态,在 2023 年重新形成共识,再度发挥提质增效的全国性引领作用。

2022 年 12 月,长三角水泥熟料价格连续三轮下挫,累计降幅达 80——90 元/吨,离岸报价跌至 280——290 元/吨,同比跌幅超过 40%。月内价格不仅跌破“3”字头,而且创五年新低。目前的价格无疑是贴于成本线运行,部分企业或存在亏损。若不及时扭转不利局面,2023 年上半年长江流域水泥市场恐陷入深渊。

下半年熟料价格跌多涨少 进口熟料“熄火”

2021 年仍火热的进口熟料贸易在 2022 年早已哑然熄火,下半年进口国外熟料同比减少90%以上,国内熟料价格跌多涨少,内外价差缩窄直至倒挂。

一年不到,市场以迅雷不及掩耳之势令人大跌眼镜。除了去年 7 月长三角熟料价格连续两轮上调各 20 元/吨以外,市场所期待的旺季并没来临,等来的却是更冰点的价格。

价格持续新低,熟料成本却高位运行。去年下半年,5500 大卡动力煤平均价格为 1400元/吨,高于 2022 年上半年 150 元/吨左右。尽管 2021 年四季度以来,煤价价格高位回落,到目前价位同比仍高出不少,仍处于高位运行。

根据中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院测算,厂家熟料生产成本在 240-270 元/吨左右,部分企业已低于成本线销售。我们预计,2023 年市场一季度仍将面临需求端的极大压力,形势已异常严峻。

多方博弈下应冷静思考 携手维护行业生态

长江流域是国内水泥巨头的核心战场。巨头云集,有利有弊。高集中度下市场的可塑性增强,但需求突变下博弈也可以更为残酷。

以长江中游湖北为中心,上下游企业在需求下行期正激烈碰撞。过去五年,围绕供给侧结构性改革,长江流域水泥企业在严控新增产能、淘汰落后产能、推进并购重组、严格执行错峰生产方面为全国典范。

如何避免当前这种碰撞令市场陷入深渊?笔者认为,水泥企业、市场管理者、上下游企业等多方市场参与者应冷静思考,携手维护行业生态,在 2023 年重新形成共识,再度发挥提质增效的全国性引领作用。

第一,政策端要进一步发力 优化错峰生产举措

从全国各大区域来看,长江流域地区熟料主要产地(长三角、湖北)已成为全国执行错峰生产时间最短及力度最宽松的地区。2021 年,主要产地占全国熟料产量的四分之一,是国内水泥熟料的核心产地。

根据各省公布的错峰生产实施计划,2022 年长江流域主要产地错峰生产时间普遍在 60-70 天,部分企业由于能效排名靠前或具备协同处置能力,错峰生产期间甚至可以少停一半。同时,部分省份甚至减少了计划停窑时间,这与国内大部分地区的做法存在明显差别。

根据中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院数据,2022 年,除长江流域主要产地外,全国大部分地区错峰生产时间均得到了明显的延长,部分地区甚至建立了跨区域联合错峰机制。政策的加强既依赖于政府主管部门的推动,也依赖于企业的呼应。

反观长江流域,以湖北为例,周边临近的部分大省如河南、湖南、重庆、陕西错峰生产时间均达到了 100 天以上,而湖北省发布的《2022 年度湖北省水泥生产企业错峰生产计划》55 条熟料生产线停窑 3128 天,平均每条线停窑不足 60 天,12%左右的生产线停窑不足 30 天,当然实际执行中,2022 年多数湖北水泥企业比原计划多停窑 20 天。

另外,有消息称,湖北省 2023 年错峰生产计划时间与 2022 年基本一致,如考虑到 2022年实际多执行了 20 天停窑时间的话,2023 年湖北错峰时间将减少 20 天左右。据中国水泥网数据,湖北全省拥有熟料产能 6444.28 万吨,因此 2023 年湖北或将增加熟料供应量 400多万吨。

相邻省份停窑时间差异巨大,加之与下游安徽等地错峰安排上缺乏沟通,势必加剧政策实施力度的不平衡性。

笔者认为,相近省份应有必要保持相对公允的错峰生产时间安排,同时长江流域中下游(湖北、江西、长三角)应建立错峰生产联动机制,进一步加强区域沟通,合理调整错峰生产的时间,避免陷入无序错峰,造成市场混乱。

第二,加速行业去库存 避免陷入持久恶性竞争

2022 年已告一段落,信心跌入谷底之时,更应不忘提前筹谋未来。

2023 年,水泥行业开年的高库位急需得到有效缓解,连续下挫的熟料价格并未迎来下游积极的采购,一季度成为行业扭转不利的关键节点。

目前长江中下游地区熟料、水泥库容比均超 70%,达到同期高位水平,长江中下游地区水泥市场作为全国核心市场,其市场表现对全国走势具有重要影响,在 2023 年一季度需求端面临巨大下滑压力下高库存问题若不能及时、有效解决,行业或将陷入人人自危状态。

笔者认为,水泥企业,特别是区域龙头企业应加强对话协调沟通机制,采取一切可行、合理办法,坚决加速行业去库存速度,拖住价格底线,避免陷入持久恶性竞争,重蹈历史覆辙,为 2023 年开好年。

第三,坚决推进去产能工作 新增项目慎之又慎

水泥行业属于产能严重过剩行业,各区域均存在一定过剩问题,在行业需求尚可、利润较佳时这一矛盾暂时得到一定缓解,如今行业景气度下移,需求陡然下滑下产能严重过剩问题不得不引起行业的高度重视。

近年来长江中下游地区在行业去产能工作方面卓有成效,熟料产能稳中有降,在一定程度上缓解了行业产能过剩矛盾。

根据水泥大数据研究院统计,2023 年长江中下游地区计划新投产能近千万吨,在当前供需矛盾进一步凸显下若新增产能如期释放,势必加剧行业运行压力,行业亏损面可能会扩大。

笔者呼吁,长江流域龙头企业要担当作为,从全行业长远利益出发,发挥垂范作用,牵头做好去产能工作,坚决巩固供给侧改革成果,新增上马项目要慎之又慎,共同营造行业新的生态环境。

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Correlation

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.

2024-11-08 17:41:17

Under the current supply and demand situation of the industry, strict implementation of off-peak production is still the key to maintain the stable development of the industry. According to its introduction, the number of off-peak production days in Chongqing this year may reach nearly 200 days, about 20 days more than last year. However, from the implementation of this year, two key problems need to be solved to promote off-peak production. 1、 Some small enterprises are not enthusiastic about participating. According to its introduction, large enterprises and some small enterprises in the region can strictly implement the peak-staggering production plan, but some small-scale cement enterprises, especially single-line enterprises, have poor enthusiasm for the implementation of peak-staggering production, which makes it difficult to implement the regional peak-staggering production as a whole.

2024-10-15 14:42:58

It is understood that the total investment of the project is 10 billion yuan, including limestone ore for building stone, limestone ore for symbiotic flux and limestone ore for symbiotic cement, which provides sufficient resources for large-scale production of building stone, flux and cement. High-quality ore in the mining area helps to improve the performance and quality of related products in downstream industries and enhance the market competitiveness of products. It can meet the long-term and stable production requirements.

2024-10-14 11:16:31

The establishment of OCC is highly recognized by cement enterprises. Under the current complex and changeable market environment, the cement industry urgently needs such an authoritative organization to lead the industry to a healthy development path of "anti-involution" and "anti-dumping".

2024-09-30 11:32:39

Anti-involution is not only a countermeasure to the current predicament, but also the only way for the long-term development of the cement industry. It means that the industry should withdraw from the quagmire of disorderly competition and move towards an orderly, healthy and sustainable development path. Cement enterprises are required to strengthen industry self-discipline, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, actively respond, maintain strategic strength and firm confidence in development.

2024-09-29 14:54:09

Anti-involution is not only a countermeasure to the current predicament, but also the only way for the long-term development of the cement industry. It means that the industry should withdraw from the quagmire of disorderly competition and move towards an orderly, healthy and sustainable development path. Cement enterprises are required to strengthen industry self-discipline, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, actively respond, maintain strategic strength and firm confidence in development.

2024-09-29 11:06:16

Recently, the local weather conditions in China are not good, the recovery of market demand is insufficient, the price of concrete is mainly stable, and the local pressure is falling. From September 12 to September 18, the national concrete price index closed at 112.93 points, down 0.21% annually and 10.83% year-on-year.

2024-09-20 17:55:34

All regions of China's cement industry will enter the new normal in which the production days are less than days of kiln shutdown. The industry should assess the market demand, reasonably determine the production time, and achieve a balance between production and marketing. It is suggested that the relevant departments of the state should implement the anti-involution measures to the production days of the traditional industries in different regions, and adjust the production days according to the real market price, that is, when the market price breaks through the price ceiling, the production days should be increased appropriately, and when the market price breaks through the price floor, the production days should be reduced appropriately, so as to achieve the relative stability of the market price.

2024-09-19 17:31:23

The Yangtze River Economic Zone is one of the most dynamic economic regions in China. There are 168 enterprises and 608 production lines in ten provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Basin, with a total clinker production capacity of 720 million tons. If we can take the lead in realizing the high-quality and healthy development of the cement industry in the Yangtze River Basin, the cement industry in other regions can also embark on the road of sound development.

2024-09-10 10:03:17

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

Domestic construction conditions have not been significantly improved, coupled with insufficient new projects in most regions, the concrete market is still flat. From July 25th to July 31st, the national concrete price index closed at 115.36 points, down 0.59% from the previous month.

2024-08-02 17:29:53

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in central and southern China has recovered by 10-15 yuan/ton, and the quotation in Guangxi is temporarily stable. Prices in some areas of the two lakes have fallen in the early stage, and the overall market is mainly stable this week.

2024-08-02 17:16:26

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the intensity of peak staggering has been increased, and the price of cement in Yunnan-Guizhou region has been raised by 30-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. Cement prices in some markets in Sichuan and Chongqing have dropped by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-07-26 16:56:03

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the price of cement in Guangdong and Guangxi markets has been stable this week, and the price in Hainan has fallen sharply. Prices in Hubei are mainly stable, while prices in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan are falling.

2024-07-12 17:23:24

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the price of cement in Guangdong and Guangxi markets has been stable after rising in the week. At present, the overall price of the two lakes region is mainly stable, and there is a decline in some areas.

2024-07-05 17:16:30

The recent rainy weather is still continuing, the downstream construction progress is slow, local shutdown occurs, and the price of concrete is stable and small. From June 20th to June 26th, the national concrete price index closed at 117.92 points, down 0.19% from the previous month.

2024-06-28 18:10:43

The contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, and the price prospect of natural sand is worrying.

2024-06-26 15:22:12

Many places in China reported that the rain weather increased, the market demand was weak, and the price of concrete was weak. From June 13th to June 19th, the national concrete price index closed at 118.15 points, down 0.20% from the previous month.

2024-06-21 17:53:57

For a long time, cement has been recognized as a "short-leg" product. With the advancement of water transport construction, the capacity of major transport channels such as the Yangtze River and the Xijiang River has been improved. With the implementation of rail-water intermodal transport and river-sea intermodal transport, the radius of cement transport has been increasing.

2024-06-18 15:57:19

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the high temperature weather continues, the demand is flat, and the price has stabilized in many places.

2024-06-14 19:37:39

After the Meiyu season, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River immediately enter the high temperature season from July to August, which is also not conducive to outdoor construction. Therefore, the arrival of the Meiyu season every year basically means that the cement off-season begins, and the market needs to wait until September to start again.

2024-06-03 10:41:06

According to the incomplete statistics of China Cement Network, there are about 24 companies with aggregate business in A-share motherboard and Hong Kong listed companies, of which 16 listed companies disclose specific aggregate income..

2024-05-28 16:59:57

Illegal Sand Mining Incident in Dongting Lake Reserve Caused More than 2000 Mu of Mengjiang Beach to Be Hollowed Out..

2024-05-28 13:41:21

How is the cement industry in Hubei? Faced with the current situation, what are the views of cement enterprises in the region?

2024-05-23 13:38:17

China Cement Network Market Data Center News, the recent rise in raw material prices in central and southern China, the rise in cement production costs, the local market in Guangdong and Guangxi cement prices increased by 15 yuan/ton, the implementation remains to be observed. Prices in the two lakes, Henan and other markets fluctuated little during the week.

2024-05-17 17:17:38

In Zhou Shanjian's view, as a resource-intensive product, cement's consumption of natural resources and energy should be transformed into equivalent economic and social values to maximize the value of resource utilization.

2024-05-17 13:55:14

In the future, Huaxin Cement will continue to take green development as the core, continue to increase investment in pollution reduction, carbon reduction, energy saving and consumption reduction, promote the national "double carbon" work with practical actions, and provide Huaxin samples for traditional industrial enterprises to practice the road of green sustainable development.

2024-05-16 10:58:59

In the market with low concentration, we need to adopt the price competition strategy boldly, fight on the fight, but also thoroughly hurt, forcing the production capacity with weak competitiveness to be completely eliminated.

2024-05-16 09:26:05

Recently, the price of natural sand along the Yangtze River has dropped slightly, and the Cement Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network has conducted online research on some sand and gravel enterprises..

2024-05-14 16:18:11

China Cement Network Market Data Center News, Chongqing continues to stagger the peak kiln, the enterprise notice to raise the price of cement 30 yuan/ton, the implementation is not yet clear. The overall market in Sichuan and Yunnan is weak, and the price of cement in some markets has dropped by 10-30 yuan/ton.

2024-05-11 16:46:29

By the end of April 2024, the National Gravel Price Index (CSPI) closed at 82.95 points, down 0.73% annually and 4.24% year-on-year. The National Machine-Made Sand Price Index (MSPI) closed at 85.95 points, down 1.34% month-on-month and 7.87% year-on-year..

2024-05-08 16:53:52

The voice of cement price is not decided by small enterprises, nor in the hands of large enterprises.

2024-05-07 13:59:52

Asia Cement (China) has favorable conditions to fully participate in the market competition along the Yangtze River.

2024-05-06 09:33:35

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, since the middle of the year, many enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing have notified the price of cement to be raised by 15-30 yuan/ton. At present, the implementation is mostly around 10-20 yuan/ton. The market demand and sales volume in Yunnan-Guizhou region is low, and the price of cement in some markets has dropped by 10-20 yuan/ton in the week, and the range in some regions is about 40 yuan/ton.

2024-04-19 16:50:45

According to the data center of China Cement Market, or driven by the rising prices in the peripheral market, the price of cement in some areas of the two lakes has been raised by 30 yuan/ton since the middle of the year, and the implementation remains to be observed. The price of bulk cement of some enterprises in the Pearl River Delta of Guangdong has been slightly reduced by about 20 yuan/ton, while the quotation of other enterprises in the same industry is temporarily stable.

2024-04-19 16:32:07

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, this week, all regions basically completed a round of general rise, but the implementation of individual regions is not good.

2024-04-19 15:53:19

Not only in Hunan, but also in the whole Yangtze River Basin, the prospect of this round of price increases is worrying. According to the analysis of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, the current supply and demand situation is still poor, the foundation of price increase is not solid, and the serious shortage of demand may be the main factor that makes this round of price increase difficult to implement.

2024-04-19 09:17:10

The cement market along the Yangtze River has always been the core market of the cement industry, which plays an important role in stabilizing the national cement market.

2024-04-17 17:40:05

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.