In the whole year, the total supply of domestic production capacity is 810,000 tons, the import is 90,000 tons, and the total supply of domestic silicon materials is 900,000 tons (excluding the consumption of crystal pulling plants in Southeast Asia). Corresponding to the installed capacity of nearly 250GW on the global exchange side in 2022, the supply of silicon materials has exceeded the demand in the whole year. In the fourth quarter of
2022, the total supply of domestic silicon materials was 275,000 tons, of which the domestic production capacity was 96,700 tons in December (excluding imports of 8,000 tons), and the supply has obviously exceeded the demand in the off-season. At the beginning of
2022, the production capacity of domestic silicon materials has reached 520,000 tons, and by the end of that year, the production capacity of domestic silicon materials has reached 1.187 million tons. In the
first quarter of 2022, the production capacity is expected to increase by 200,000 tons, and in the second quarter, it is expected to increase by 258,000 tons. Since the fourth quarter of 2022, the output of silicon materials in that month has been able to fully meet the downstream demand in that month, and the surplus has increased month by month.
With the end of shutdown and overhaul in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the continuous production of new silicon materials in the first and second quarters of this year, the situation of oversupply of silicon materials will deteriorate in an all-round way. Falling to the industry average cost line of 60 yuan (excluding tax) will be much earlier than any expert, professional seller, big V forecast analysis and judgment!
From a number of professional organizations seller report summary, by the end of December last year, silicon production enterprises have a backlog of nearly a month of output inventory, estimated at more than 70000 tons; By the end of this month, it is estimated that the backlog of silicon material factories will be about 120000 tons, and the deterioration of silicon material enterprises'inventory will be further aggravated.
Only at the end of last year, 1.187 million tons of domestic silicon materials have been put into production (the real output will exceed 2-3% after actual production), which has fully met the total demand of 350GW installed capacity on the AC side of global components throughout the year. Considering the factors such as the carry-over of more than 70,000 tons of inventory in the previous year, the import of 90,000 tons in the current year, the consumption of nearly 20,000 tons of silicon materials in Southeast Asia, the continuous production of more than 458,000 tons of new production capacity of silicon materials in the first to second quarters of this year, and the difference in demand between the off-peak and peak seasons in the year, in fact, since the fourth quarter of last year, there has been an obvious oversupply of silicon materials, and there will be a serious surplus of silicon materials in the first quarter of this year.
According to a conference call organized by the seller at the beginning of the week, the actual transaction price of silicon materials in Central this week has fallen to the upper limit of 120 yuan/kg. It is expected that the silicon materials will fall further next week, and it is estimated that it will fall to about 80 yuan around the Spring Festival.
At present, silicon material enterprises have set up warehouses in the crystal pulling plants of leading silicon wafer enterprises, with sufficient inventory, and only when they are used up can they settle according to the latest "seafood price", also known as "escrow material" or "consignment material". Silicon material enterprises have completely lost their bargaining power.
From the end of the year to the beginning of 2021, there were more than 20 silicon production enterprises in the world. After years of vicious price war below the cost line, there were five leading enterprises left, which also led to the current cycle of rising silicon materials. These five leading enterprises of silicon materials can hold together calmly under the guidance of the association, and the price of silicon materials will rise all the way to the sky again. And silicon material enterprises vigorously support the second and third-line crystal pulling and silicon wafer enterprises, as well as the root of integrated component factories outside Longji. Looking forward to the competition pattern in the
later period, the two leading silicon wafer enterprises, Zhonghuan and Longji, must adopt the principle of "doing the same as the other", just as the leading silicon wafer enterprises have supported crucible factories and diamond wire factories, and turn to vigorously support the second-line silicon material factories, which will not let history repeat itself. That is to say, even if your five leading silicon material enterprises have a slightly lower cost advantage, it will also make you hungry, always less than full production, artificially pull up your actual cost line, and then go to the second-tier silicon material enterprises to achieve balanced competition, can not earn the money of real low-cost strength!
When this year's silicon material falls to 80 ~ 100 yuan in one step, The corresponding component price can reach 1.4 ~ 1.5 yuan, and the corresponding component price can reach 1.3 ~ 1.4 yuan when the industry average cost line falls to 60 yuan through the continuous vicious price war of silicon material enterprises.
(1) Affected by this low-cost component, the rate of return of downstream power plants will generally exceed 10%, and the downstream demand is bound to be concentrated blowout, especially the centralized global power plant projects with a serious backlog of two years will increase the release this year.
(2) Due to the dual constraints of imported high-purity sand and high-cost crucible, the annual output of low-cost silicon wafers can only meet the demand of less than 300GW of AC side installed capacity, and the part exceeding this low-cost needs to be supplemented by doping a higher proportion of domestic sand. After calculation, it is expected that doping with a higher proportion of domestic sand will lead to an increase of 0.08-0.10 yuan per watt in the comprehensive cost of silicon wafers. Judging from this, the most scarce link this year must be low-cost large silicon wafers, so for Zhonghuan and Longji, which have imported sand crucibles to guarantee supply, it is undoubtedly the God of Wealth coming this year.
浙公网安备33010802003254号