2023, the global new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to exceed 400GW, an increase of nearly 70% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in many years, and the annual installed capacity has reached a record high. Among them, China, the European Union, the United States, India and Japan have become the countries and regions with the largest installed capacity in the world, accounting for about 68% of the world's newly installed capacity. Although the scale of installed demand continues to expand, the decline in growth rate may lead to the aggravation of the global photovoltaic supply chain surplus. In
2023, the EU remained the second largest PV market in the world, with installed PV capacity exceeding 260GW. According to the data of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2023, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the EU reached 55.9 GW, an increase of 40% over 2022. Since the second half of 2023, the demand for residential solar energy installation in the EU has slowed down. The association predicts that the new installed capacity of the European Union will increase by 11% to 62 GW in 2024, slowing down from 2023, and the weakness of wholesale electricity prices has weakened concerns about energy constraints. After experiencing a growth rate of more than 40% for three consecutive years (mainly due to the impact of the energy crisis), the new PV installed capacity in the EU will bid farewell to the high growth rate in the future, because with the growth of installed capacity, further investment in grid and energy storage is needed, and the progress of investment will restrict the growth of the PV market. The association also warned that if tariffs are increased and trade barriers are further raised, demand growth may slow down or even shrink. On the supply side, rising component inventories and slowing demand in Europe may lead to further oversupply in 2024.
Figure 1: New PV installed capacity
in the EU since 2014 Source: European Photovoltaic Industry Association
In 2023, Germany was the largest PV market in the EU, with a new installed capacity of 14.1GW, a record high. This year, German renewable energy will meet 52% of German electricity demand, which is the first time in history to exceed 50%, and the future goal is to increase to 80% by 2030. Germany has pledged that it will not cut subsidies for solar power systems in 2024, which is expected to contribute to further growth in installed capacity.
2. The United States: Demand growth slowed down to 10%
In 2023, driven by utility projects, the new installed capacity of PV in the United States reached a record high, which is expected to reach 33 GW, a record high, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%, of which utility projects increased by more than 80%. Texas has become the state with the largest new PV installed capacity in the United States, accounting for more than 1/5.
Figure 2: New PV installed capacity
in the United States since 2014 Source: Solar Energy Industries Association
of America As of the end of September 2023, The total installed photovoltaic capacity in the United States has reached 161 GW, and the American Solar Energy Industry Association predicts that this figure will increase by 377 GW by 2028.
The United States, through its Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), is attracting private investment to build a domestic PV industry chain. The Inflation Reduction Act encourages global PV manufacturers to invest and build factories in the United States. The United States also signed the Global Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Commitment on December 2, which specifies that global renewable energy generation capacity will triple to 11 terawatts by 2030.
Due to the high growth rate in 2023, the growth rate of the U.S. photovoltaic market is expected to slow down next year due to the impact of the domestic economy, and the new installed capacity is expected to grow by about 10%.
3. India: Expected to resume growth
From January to November 2023, the newly installed PV capacity in India reached 9 GW, down 25% from the same period last year, and the installed capacity of residential and public construction projects declined. According to the forecast of JMK Research, in 2023, the new installed capacity of PV in India is expected to be around 11 GW, of which the scale of public utility projects is 7 GW, the rooftop PV system is 3.5G W, and the off-grid installed capacity is 500MW. This forecast is less than previous market expectation of 15-17GW. Developers postponed some projects in 2023
due to falling module prices, land, transmission and other issues, which is the main reason for the year-on-year decline in photovoltaic installed capacity. This means that in the first half of next year, India's photovoltaic market is expected to see good growth again, and it is expected to be more than 15GW for the whole year. India's Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) also said it would resolve the grid connection application process in the coming quarters.
By the end of September, India's photovoltaic installed capacity had reached 69 GW, making it the fifth largest photovoltaic application market in the world after China, the European Union, the United States and Japan. Rajasthan in western India is the region with the largest installed capacity, followed by Karnataka and Gujarat, which account for more than half of the installed photovoltaic capacity in India. India aims to have 280GW of installed capacity by 2030, which is four times the current size. At present, the per capita PV capacity in India is less than 100 W. The PV market in India has great potential, but the government may put more emphasis on the use of domestic solar cells and modules in the future.
Figure 3: New PV installed capacity
in India Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
IV. Japan: Steady development and slow
progress In recent years, the annual new PV installed capacity in Japan has been relatively stable. It has not grown as much as the major photovoltaic markets. From January to October 2023, PV module shipments in Japan were 3.8GW, down 6.7% year-on-year. Due to the limited land resources in Japan, distributed photovoltaic is the main force driving the installed capacity of photovoltaic in Japan. Previously, the domestic installed capacity is expected to reach 6-7 GW in 2023, but now it seems that the whole year is obviously less than expected, and it is expected to be less than 5G W.
According to Japan's latest development goals, the installed capacity of photovoltaic in Japan will reach 125GW in 2030, doubling from 2020, which is obviously slow. In the future, Japan is expected to strengthen subsidies for photovoltaic power generation to accelerate the process of carbon reduction. However, due to the small number of large-scale power plant projects and the high cost of photovoltaic modules, it is difficult for Japan's photovoltaic installed capacity to have a higher growth opportunity.
Figure 4: Newly
installed PV capacity in Japan Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com.
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