Development situation
1. The global photovoltaic industry has high development potential. Support While the global PV application market maintains strong demand, the international competition in the PV manufacturing industry is intensifying. Development of global PV industry and key countries/regions From the perspective of the manufacturing end of the PV industry chain, the production scale of the manufacturing end of the global PV industry chain continued to expand throughout 2022, driven by the demand of the application market. According to the latest data released by China Photovoltaic Industry Association in February 2023, the global installed capacity of new photovoltaic in 2022 is expected to be 230 gigawatts, an increase of 35. In the whole year of 2022, China produced 806000 tons of photovoltaic polysilicon, an increase of 59% over the same period last year. In 2022, the corresponding module output of available polysilicon in China is about 332.5 gigawatts.
From the perspective of focused countries/regions:
Europe: According to the data released by the European Photovoltaic Association, the newly installed PV capacity in the 27 EU countries in 2022 was 41. Among them, Germany ranked first with 7.9 GW of newly installed PV capacity in 2022; Next is Spain, with new installed capacity 7. Germany is expected to add more than 10 gigawatts of new installed capacity in 2023 and 62 in 2023-2026. Spain is expected to add 51.2 gigawatts of new installed capacity between 2023 and 2026, with cumulative installed capacity increasing from 26.4 gigawatts in 2022 to 77 in December 2022. The German parliament has approved a new tax break for rooftop photovoltaics, including an exemption from value-added tax for photovoltaic systems up to 30 kilowatts. The newly amended German Renewable Energy Act (EEG) stipulates that from 2023, Germany will allow all photovoltaic components, including components and inverters, of the original photovoltaic power plants to be replaced with new ones, without a lengthy approval process as long as land is not increased. It is expected that the total photovoltaic installed capacity in Germany will double after the implementation of the new policy.
Figure 2 PV Installed Capacity
in Some European Countries in 2021-2022 Source: EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2022-2026
Brazil : According to statistics from the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy quoted by Fitch, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic in Brazil reached 22 gigawatts in 2022, with an additional capacity of 9.0 gigawatts. The newly installed capacity increased significantly by 73. Influenced by the distributed generation bill introduced in January 2022, Brazil will begin to levy grid usage fees on small distributed projects in 2023. As the local distributed projects in Brazil account for more than 65% of the total installed capacity, this bill has significantly affected the market and formed a large-scale rush to install. Brazil has become one of the hottest markets for photovoltaic installation in 2022.
India: According to the survey data of JMK, a photovoltaic consultancy in India, in 2022, 13. Utility-scale PV installed in India 11.
Japan: According to statistics from Fitch and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the installed PV capacity in Japan reached 77.6 gigawatts in 2022, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. In January 2023, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly of Japan voted to pass the revised regulations on "requiring new residential buildings in Tokyo to install solar panels from April 2025", stipulating that owners of large residential buildings and one-family residential buildings less than 2000 square meters are obliged to install solar panels on their roofs. In addition, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan will implement a policy from 2024 to purchase electricity generated by enterprises through rooftop photovoltaic at a high price. It plans to adopt a fixed price acquisition system (FIT). The purchase price is expected to be 2 to 30% higher than purchase price of ground photovoltaic power.
China: According to the National Energy Administration, in 2022, China's PV installed capacity increased by 87.41 gigawatts, a significant year-on-year increase of 59. It is expected that the cumulative installed capacity of PV will surpass hydropower for the first time in 2023, becoming the largest source of non-fossil energy power generation. According to the incomplete statistics of the photovoltaic industry association, a total of 18 photovoltaic related policies were issued in January 2023. Among them, there are 3 national policies and 15 local policies. The content of the policy involves promoting the progress of smart photovoltaic technology and industrial application, encouraging and supporting industrial and commercial users of 10 kV and above to directly participate in the electricity market, guiding the balanced development of solar photovoltaic, energy storage technology and products, and avoiding overcapacity and vicious competition.
PV industry chain products China: In December 2022, China's PV module exports rose slightly against the trend, ending the downward trend since the export peak in July. The annual export data showed a bright performance, with the export volume of photovoltaic modules reaching 154.8 gigawatts in 2022, an increase of 74% compared with 2021; The export volume was 42.375 billion US dollars, an increase of 65% over the same period last year. The peak of export was from May to July in the middle of the year. After that, the overseas market increased its inventory level due to a large number of imports in the first half of the year, and the strength of pulling goods slowed down. The export volume of components continued to decline until November, and stopped falling and rose in December.
Figure 4 Export of
PV modules in China from January to December 2022 Source: PV Infolink
Europe: Full year of 2022 European countries imported 86.6 gigawatts of photovoltaic modules from China, accounting for 56% of China's exports of photovoltaic modules in the whole year, and compared with 40.2022 in 2021, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of traditional energy rose rapidly, which prompted European countries to actively promote energy transformation, and the demand for installation of photovoltaic equipment increased greatly. In major countries such as Germany, Spain, Poland and the Netherlands, demand has increased significantly, and many countries with smaller demand in the past have also experienced multiple growth.
Asia Pacific: Asia Pacific imports PV modules from China in 2022 28. Major demand countries include India, Japan and Australia.
Americas: The total number of modules imported from China in 2022 reached 24.
Middle East: Typical countries are the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, both of which showed a significant increase in the number of PV modules imported from China in 2022. Among them, the United Arab Emirates imported 3.6 gigawatts of PV modules from China, an increase of 340% compared with 2021, making it the largest importer of Chinese modules in the Middle East; Saudi Arabia imported 1.2 gigawatts of PV modules from China, less than 0.In
addition to modules, in 2022, China's accumulative export of solar cells amounted to US $4.003 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.66%; the accumulative export of inverters amounted to US $8.975 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.The
development trend of the photovoltaic industry in 2023 is predicted
to continue the trend of high opening and high going throughout the year. Although the first quarter is usually the off-season of installation in Europe and China, recently, the new production capacity of silicon materials has been released continuously, which has led to the downward price of the industrial chain, effectively alleviated the downstream cost pressure and stimulated the release of installation. At the same time, overseas photovoltaic demand is expected to continue the trend of "off-season is not weak" in January from February to March. According to the feedback from head component enterprises, after the Spring Festival, the trend of component production scheduling is clear, with an average increase of 10% -20% in February and a further increase in March. From the second and third quarters, with the continuous decline of supply chain prices, it is expected that demand will continue to rise until the end of the year or large-scale grid-connected tide will appear again, driving the installed capacity in the fourth quarter to the peak of the whole year.
Industrial competition is becoming more and more fierce. In 2023, the intervention or influence of geopolitics, big power game, climate change and other factors on the supply chain of the entire industrial chain will continue, and the competition in the international photovoltaic industry will become more and more fierce. From the product point of view, enterprises increase the research and development of efficient products, which is the main grasp to improve the global competitiveness of photovoltaic products; From the perspective of industrial layout, the trend of PV industry supply chain from centralization to decentralization and diversification is becoming more and more obvious in the future. Scientific and rational distribution of overseas industrial chain and overseas market according to different market characteristics and policies is a necessary means for enterprises to enhance global competitiveness and reduce market risks. The development situation
of the photovoltaic industry in the
medium and long term The global photovoltaic industry has high development potential, which supports the high demand for products in the photovoltaic industry chain. From a global perspective, the transformation of energy structure to diversification, cleanliness and low-carbon is an irreversible trend, and governments actively encourage enterprises to develop solar photovoltaic industry. Under the background of energy transformation, China's photovoltaic products have the advantages of industrial chain linkage and high competitiveness in export. China's photovoltaic industry has the advantages of the most complete photovoltaic industry supply chain in the world, complete industrial support, linkage effect between upstream and downstream, and obvious capacity and output advantages, which is the basis for supporting the export of products. At the same time, China's photovoltaic industry continues to innovate, leading the world in technological advantages, laying the foundation for seizing international market opportunities. In addition, digital technology and intelligent technology have accelerated the digital transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry and greatly improved production efficiency.
Photovoltaic core devices are developing in the direction of high efficiency, low energy consumption and low cost, and cell conversion efficiency is the key technical element to break through the bottleneck of photovoltaic industry. On the premise of balancing cost and efficiency, once the battery technology with high conversion performance breaks through to achieve mass production, it will quickly occupy the market and eliminate low-end production capacity. The product chain and supply chain balance between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will also be reconstructed. At present, crystalline silicon batteries are still the mainstream technology in the photovoltaic industry, which also constitutes the high consumption of upstream raw material silicon. Perovskite thin film batteries, which are considered to be the representatives of the third generation of high-efficiency thin film batteries, have significant advantages in energy saving, environmental protection, design and application, and raw material consumption. At present, the technology is still in the laboratory stage. Replacing crystalline silicon batteries will become the mainstream technology, and the bottleneck of raw materials in the upstream of the industrial chain will be broken.
We need to pay attention to the risk of international competition. While maintaining strong demand in the global photovoltaic application market, the international competition in photovoltaic manufacturing industry is intensifying. Some countries are actively planning to localize the production and manufacturing of photovoltaic industry and supply chain, and to raise the development of new energy manufacturing to the government level, with goals, measures and steps. For example, the US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 plans to invest $30 billion in production tax credits to promote the processing of solar panels and key products in the United States; the European Union plans to achieve the goal of 100 gigawatts of complete photovoltaic industry chain by 2030; India announced the National Plan for High-Efficiency Solar Photovoltaic Modules, which aims to increase local manufacturing and reduce import dependence in the renewable energy sector. At the same time, some countries, out of their own interests, have introduced measures to restrict the import of photovoltaic products in China, which has a certain impact on the export of photovoltaic products in China. However, in terms of time cycle, it will take at least two to three years for these countries to establish a sound photovoltaic industry chain, during which they still need to import overseas products to support the development of domestic infrastructure. At the same time, considering the matching factors of market supply and demand, 2025 will be the golden period for the development of domestic photovoltaic industry, and also the window period for enterprises to expand production. Summary
of the development situation of
China's photovoltaic industry On the whole, the development situation of China's photovoltaic industry can be summarized as follows: high prosperity on the demand side, advantages on the supply side, vigilance against policy impact, and seizing window opportunities. The demand side is booming. Three factors drive the external PV demand to maintain high prosperity: the reduction of electricity cost enhances the core competitiveness of PV; the transformation of low-carbon energy promotes the penetration of PV; and the challenge of energy security will enhance the long-term demand for PV in Europe.
The supply side has advantages. Three characteristics determine the export advantages of China's photovoltaic products: the technological advantages of China's photovoltaic products are leading in the world; the supply chain of photovoltaic industry is highly concentrated in China, and the advantages of production capacity and output are obvious; the vertical integration of China's photovoltaic enterprises drives to reduce costs.
Be alert to policy implications. Trade policy is the most important variable affecting the export of photovoltaic products in China, so it is necessary to keep a close eye on the trade policies related to the photovoltaic industry chain in various countries, and guard against the sanctions imposed by India, the United States, South Korea and some European countries on the export of photovoltaic products in China through anti-dumping investigations, basic tariffs and carbon footprint standards, so as to protect the healthy development of local photovoltaic enterprises.
Grasp the window opportunity. Considering market absorption, supply-demand matching, international competition and other factors, it is expected that 2025 will be a watershed for the development of the industry. Before 2025, enterprises are facing a window period of development, and there is a window period of opportunity; after that, the market growth will gradually slow down, and the industry will enter a shuffle period, and achieving technological breakthroughs in the industrial chain is one of the main conditions to improve the core competitiveness of enterprises and products. Outlook for
Global PV Market Trends in
2023 
Looking ahead to 2023, what challenges and opportunities will the global photovoltaic market face? After
China defined the goal of "double carbon", a series of incentive schemes were introduced around the country, and China's photovoltaic market ushered in rapid development. It is expected that the installed capacity will increase substantially in 2023. The United States also passed the "Inflation Reduction Act" a few days ago to welcome the photovoltaic industry. With the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the extreme weather, Europe is now deeply troubled by the energy crisis and is more determined to transform its energy.
In addition to the policy-driven increase in demand for installed capacity, At present, the global PV market as a whole presents the following trends:
the industrial focus continues to shift
to China, the new installed capacity increases
, the scale of the manufacturing side continues to expand
, the price of PV electricity shows a downward trend
, and the development of distributed PV power generation is strong. In the
first half of this year, 30.88 GW of new installed capacity was added, of which distributed photovoltaic reached 19.Distributed photovoltaic is mainly used in the roofs of household and industrial and commercial buildings, which has the characteristics of small investment, fast construction, diverse forms and small footprint, and is an important way to achieve the goal of double carbon.
According to the distributed full-scene solution launched by Guruiwatt, we can see that specific photovoltaic system solutions can meet the needs of different users for different buildings and scenarios. In 2023, distributed photovoltaic will be an important breakthrough in the photovoltaic incremental market.
From the point of view of the industrial chain, the current price of silicon materials has been at the top position, and the upward space is limited. In 2023, with the release of new production capacity of silicon materials, the price will return to a reasonable location, and the profits of all links in the industrial chain will be redistributed, which will stimulate the outbreak of domestic ground demand.
At the present stage, the photovoltaic industry is experiencing an important transition period, with technology updates in all aspects of the industrial chain, and " cost reduction and efficiency enhancement " has become the core concern of enterprises. Technological upgrading has become an important driving force for reducing costs and increasing efficiency.
Looking ahead, which technology will become the next mainstream technology? Which is more economical? Which can withstand the market's verification? The important carrier of
photovoltaic power generation is photovoltaic cells and components. From the point of view of battery technology, every iteration of technology is constantly improving the conversion rate of photoelectric effect and reducing the cost of enterprises, that is, "reducing costs and increasing efficiency". The new battery technology bears the important mission of reducing costs and increasing efficiency and moving towards parity in the photovoltaic industry, and the technology and products in the industrial chain are constantly "eliminating the fittest".
The past few years have witnessed the rapid expansion of P-type batteries. As the efficiency of PERC batteries approaches the "ceiling", the N-type battery technology led by HJT, TOPCon and IBC is expected to become the mainstream in the future. Compared with P-type batteries, N-type batteries have the advantages of high conversion efficiency and low component attenuation. At present, many enterprises have strategically laid out high-efficiency N-type technology to optimize the overall layout of the upstream and downstream of the N-type industrial chain.
In 2022, the mass production conversion efficiency of HJT and TOPCon has reached 24.5% -24. 2022 is known as the first year of TOPCon, with Trina Solar 8GW and Jing
ao 6.HJT. Relevant manufacturers are actively carrying out relevant technical reserve layout, and the downstream client has been verified by mass production data. With the maturity of domestic equipment and the improvement of production economy, HJT will accelerate its penetration in the future. Dongfang Risheng is expected to have more than 15GW capacity expansion in 2023, and has become the first enterprise of HJT shipment for many years. In addition to Dongfang Risheng, Huasheng, Longji, Tongwei and other enterprises have also announced HJT capacity planning, which will accelerate the promotion of cost reduction and efficiency. In terms of
components, high efficiency and low cost are the goals pursued by many enterprises, and the focus of the industry is shifting to larger silicon wafers and higher power components. From the current point of view, the 600W + module launched by Trina Solar has exceeded expectations, providing a more complete solution for distributed photovoltaic application scenarios through continuous innovation and upgrading of module technology. As a "new player" in the component sector, Tongwei's mature technology of imbricated components has also become a prominent advantage for it to enter the component sector.
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