Nowadays, China's photovoltaic glass is in a stage of rapid expansion of production capacity. Before 2021, due to the environmental pollution problems in the production process of photovoltaic glass, the new production capacity has been limited and the growth rate is relatively slow. Since the "Cement Glass Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures" was put forward, the photovoltaic glass industry has formally entered the stage of rapid expansion. In 2022 and 2023, the new photovoltaic glass production capacity will be 33360 tons per day and 67560 tons per day, respectively.
Due to the rapid expansion of photovoltaic glass production capacity, the market supply and demand pattern has suddenly changed. Nowadays, the overall performance of photovoltaic glass is that supply exceeds demand, the price of photovoltaic glass has also fallen as a whole, and the profit margin of enterprises has been greatly suppressed. For the "new players" with production planning, it is not a good choice to enter the photovoltaic glass industry at this stage, and the willingness of some enterprises to ignite has also been reduced. According to SMM statistics, the planned production capacity in 2022 is 72,400 tons per day, and the actual production capacity is 33360 tons per day, with the production capacity shrinking by 53.93%.
In addition to new domestic production capacity, China's leading photovoltaic glass enterprises have begun to lay out overseas production lines in recent years due to tax restrictions such as double-reaction + 201 + 301. By the end of 2022, China has a total production capacity of 3900t/d in overseas photovoltaic rolled glass layout, and Fuyao Glass also has a production capacity of about 180t/d photovoltaic module backplane glass.
From the perspective of demand , the demand and production scheduling of PV modules provide greater support for glass. By the end of 2022, the domestic module production capacity is 582 GW, an increase of 62.11% compared with 2021, and the total module production capacity will reach 1084 GW by the end of 2026.
Module production capacity and output (GW):
Based on the current proportion of single and double glass modules, 1GW PV modules require about 60,000 tons of PV glass. Proportion of
single and double glass modules:
Double glass modules have the following advantages: ① the life cycle is about 5 years longer than that of single glass modules; ② the power generation efficiency of modules is about 4% higher than that of single glass modules; ③ the structure of double glass modules is simple and the consumption of consumables is less; ④ the insulation of glass is better than that of backplane. The double-glass module can meet the higher voltage and save the cost of the power station. It is widely used in centralized power stations and new power stations such as BIPV.
For the current glass price , the price of photovoltaic glass is divided into four stages.
The first stage: from March 2022 to the middle of May 2022, due to the increasing demand at home and abroad, the domestic supply growth slowed down slightly, the supply of photovoltaic glass was tight, and the price rose;
The second stage: from mid-May 2022 to October 2022, due to the outbreak of the epidemic at home and abroad, the logistics is limited, the start-up of downstream enterprises is reduced, the demand is significantly reduced, and the price is reduced;
The third stage: from October 2022 to December 2022, affected by the rush installation of domestic terminals, the demand suddenly increases and the price rises;
The fourth quarter: from December 2022 to now, the domestic consumption has been quiet again after the rush to install. At the same time, the number of new production lines in China has increased. The production of ignition kilns in the early stage has been completed and the output has been released. The market shows that supply exceeds demand and the price has been lowered again.
For the follow-up price forecast, SMM analysis is affected by the continuous increase of component production in the second quarter, and the demand for glass will further increase, while the growth rate of photovoltaic glass production in the second quarter is expected to be less than that of demand side, and the balance between supply and demand of photovoltaic glass is slightly scarce, and the balance between supply and demand of photovoltaic glass in 2023Q2 is expected to be-468300 tons. Equivalent to about 7 days of glass industry output, under the two-way support of cost and demand, the price of photovoltaic glass will be strong.
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