Soda ash yellow flower no longer, glass future can be expected

2023-04-11 13:24:45

Compared with the forecast at the end of 2022, the time for maintaining high production of soda ash exceeds expectations, which may also indicate that the overhaul of soda ash plants this summer may exceed expectations.

Viewpoint summary

, valuation neutral, the lowest spot price is 1620 yuan/ton, coal in Shahe area has a profit of nearly 200 yuan, natural gas is still a loss, and the profit in Hubei area is more than 200 yuan.".

3. Upward driving force: the output of glass is low, with a decrease of nearly 10% compared with that of last year. After the Spring Festival, the pressure of glass inventory is very high, and the production has not continued to be reduced, which may limit the space for the current reduction of glass production. The inventory has been greatly reduced in the last month, especially in Central China and North China, which are the traditional delivery areas; The original stock of glass processing enterprises is very small, and the new orders of glass processing enterprises have improved.

Soda ash:

1. The current basic state of soda ash is very good. The soda ash stocks of alkali plants, delivery warehouses and glass plants are at a low level. The production bottleneck position, the industry operating rate and heavy rate are also at the limit position. There is little room for increasing production, and even more maintenance may be needed later. Recently, there has been a sharp improvement in glass production and sales, as well as the recent surge in crude oil, but they have not pushed up the price of soda ash, but a new low.

2. Soda ash is easy to receive goods, but the settlement price of 02-04 delivery is gradually declining, indicating that there may be some factors in the market.

3. For 09 contract and later, it is not recommended to go long due to the certainty of nearly 30% of the production capacity; 05-06 contract has the possibility of closing basis, especially 06 contract. If the spot price does not fall any more, but from March contract, the settlement price of soda ash delivery continues to fall, which is not conducive to receiving goods by bulls.

4. Weakening of soda ash price may be due to the following two reasons: 1) The price of soda ash is at a historical high, while the price difference between light and heavy soda ash is at a historical extreme, while baking soda and liquid soda ash continue to fall. 2) In the second half of the year, there will be a large number of new production capacity, and the price will be difficult to maintain the current level of nearly 2900. Glass factories are not in a hurry to replenish and maintain low inventory.

This year is the year of intensive production of soda ash. If the production capacity of Lianyungang in January next year is included, the total production capacity will increase by 8.9 million tons, and the production capacity will increase by 28%. For any industry, the production capacity will increase by so much in a year. This is also the reason why the glass factory still maintains the low inventory operation of soda ash in the case of better profits, continuous good shipments and low inventory of soda ash and glass.

If Lianyungang's 1.1 million tons of production capacity is delayed, there will be 7.8 million tons of new production capacity, an increase of 25%.

are North China and Central China, and there is basically no maintenance;"; The northwest region still maintains the traditional low maintenance because of the lowest cost, while the maintenance change in East China is the least obvious.

light alkali.".

Source: Wind, General Administration of Customs Zijin Tianfeng Futures

Declined

in Imports of Soda Ash in Most Countries from January to February Even though the flat glass industry was in a difficult situation in the first quarter, the output of flat glass did not decrease significantly this year.".

that this year, the time for the glass factory to go to the warehouse is earlier than in previous years, and the extent of going to the warehouse is also very fast.". According to the statistics of Longzhong Chemical Industry, the production of

photovoltaic

glass in

central and northern China has continued to reach a new high

. The daily melting volume has reached 8.

The utilization rate of PV glass production capacity has been maintained at 95%. At present, there is less production this year. 0 in the first quarter.

Last year, we estimated that the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass will be 20,000 tons in 23 years. Now down to 1.

Data source: Zhuo Chuang, Zijin Tianfeng Futures

Soda Ash Inventory

The whole industry is in a low inventory state

, and the soda ash inventory in all regions is at a low level

that the price of liquid caustic soda has rebounded recently with the resumption of alumina production.".

Open interest

Compared to the end of 2022, we revised upward the demand for flat glass." The demand for photovoltaic glass was lowered, and the overall demand for heavy alkali was maintained at the end of 2022.

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Correlation

Compared with the forecast at the end of 2022, the time for maintaining high production of soda ash exceeds expectations, which may also indicate that the overhaul of soda ash plants this summer may exceed expectations.

2023-04-11 13:24:45