山西:预计2022年水泥需求稳中有降 价格或维持现有水平

2022-01-24 17:21:57

2021年全年山西水泥价格呈现出“前平后涨”态势,那么去年当地市场需求表现如何呢?2022年山西水泥市场行情又将是怎样的走势呢?

中国水泥网数据显示,2021年前10月山西水泥价格波动平缓,整体行情较为稳定。临近10月市场需求旺季,煤炭等原材料价格持续走高,水泥生产成本增加,加之周边市场水泥价格普遍上调,山西水泥市场“涨”势难挡,一直延续至四季度传统需求淡季。

2021年全年山西水泥价格呈现出“前平后涨”态势,那么去年当地市场需求表现如何呢?2022年山西水泥市场行情又将是怎样的走势呢?

一熟悉山西水泥行业的人士向中国水泥网表示:“2021年山西市场需求基本与2020年持平,年需求在3000万吨左右。因为煤炭等原材料成本上升,去年水泥价格总体比2020年高,然而,去年全年效益较之前相对差一些。”

除此之外,2021年山西水泥行业市场格局也有所变化。根据中国水泥网发布的水泥熟料产能百强榜,唐山冀东水泥公司水泥熟料年产能由2020年的713万吨增长至2021年的1162.5万吨,一举“跃”居山西省水泥熟料产能排行榜第一。

去年8月,冀东水泥联合台泥收购山西代县宏威水泥,12月冀东水泥通过公开摘牌的方式受让华润水泥持有的福龙水泥72%股权,持有福龙水泥的股权由28%增加至100%。冀东水泥对此表示,这有利于优化山西区域的产能结构,提升在山西省的市场份额和集中度。

上述行业人士透露:“目前冀东水泥已经完全接手代县宏威水泥,华润福龙收购尚未完成。大企业通过收购进一步巩固市场份额有利于行业高质量发展,整体效益有望提高,无序竞争或将减少。”

近两年山西多条水泥熟料生产线已经通过产能置换公示,后续新增产能会否影响当地市场?

山西省2020年-2021年已通过公示的产能置换项目(信息来源:山西省工信厅)

该人士向中国水泥网表示:“多条规划建设的熟料生产线尽管已经通过产能置换,受双控政策影响后续手续审批难度增加,预计2022年山西没有新线投产,初步统计当地产能利用率在50%左右。”

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

数据显示,近年来山西省房地产开发投资稳步增长,但增长幅度有限。城镇固定资产投资自2016年显著下滑后,增势也趋于缓慢。那么,2022年水泥需求表现将如何?价格走向又将如何?

该人士对2022年山西水泥行业市场走向作出判断:“山西房地产情况一般,重点工程基建项目情况与往年差不多,2022年整体需求预计稳中有降,价格预计会维持现有水平。”

另外,去年10月,山西省工信厅发布2021-2022年秋冬季错峰生产的通知。要求2021年11月1日-2022年3月31日水泥熟料企业实施秋冬季错峰生产。分两个阶段实施,第一阶段:2021年11月1日-2021年12月31日;第二阶段:2022年1月1日-2022年3月31日。严格执行错峰生产也将为稳定当地水泥行情发挥积极作用。

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