浙江降100元!水泥进入普跌模式!下半年行情怎么走?

2021-06-25 09:27:43

以浙江为例,6月以来,浙江完成三轮普降,幅度在90-100元/吨。

6月24日,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)下跌0.23%,报收148.09点。从近期市场表现来看,自6月3号以来,该指数一路下跌,16个工作日跌幅达5.6%。

水泥价格进入普跌模式浙江降幅达100元

据市场反馈,六月水泥行业进入传统淡季,各地需求趋弱,厂家库存有所走高,全国水泥价格整体呈现下行状态。以浙江为例,6月以来,浙江完成三轮普降,幅度在90-100元/吨。

浙北杭嘉湖绍地区:

6月1日起浙江杭州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴等地主要厂家通知下调各品种水泥价格30元/吨。

16日浙江地区主要企业对浙北杭州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴等地陆续通知下调各品种水泥价格30元/吨。

22日起浙江地区一些主要厂家对浙北杭州、绍兴、湖州、嘉兴地区再次通知下调各品种水泥价格30元/吨,区域其余同业预计稍晚几日跟进下调。

至此六月以来浙北杭嘉湖绍地区水泥价格已普降三轮,累计幅度达90元/吨。

浙中南及沿海地区:

6月4日浙中南金华、建德、衢州、丽水及沿海甬温台地区水泥价格下调30元/吨,部分袋装下调40元/吨。

18日起浙中南金华、建德、衢州、丽水及沿海温州、台州、宁波、舟山等多地主要厂家大幅通知下调各品种水泥价格50元/吨。

24日起浙中南金华、建德、衢州、丽水及沿海宁波、温州、台州等地主要厂家继续通知下调各品种水泥价格20元/吨。

经过三轮普降,浙中南及沿海地区累计降幅达100元/吨。

整体来看:

六月以来浙江地区水泥价格已完成三轮普降,幅度90-100元/吨,降后浙江地区P.O 42.5级水泥出厂价在400-420元/吨左右。

此外,上海、江苏、广东、福建等地不少水泥厂家近期也纷纷下调水泥价格,下调幅度不等。多重因素作用下,水泥价格进入普跌模式。(详情:骤降150元!42.5水泥价格跌破200!东北水泥南下第四轮降价开始

行业盈利极值或难突破

2016年下半年以来,随着供给侧结构性改革的持续推进,水泥行业逐步迎来持续数年的高景气行情,不仅水泥价格刷新历史极值,行业利润也连年创下新高。

在2018年水泥行业总利润达到1545亿元,盈利能力和毛利水平都创出历史新高后,2019年全年水泥行业利润更是达到1867亿元,同比增长19.6%。2020年,虽然受新冠肺炎疫情影响,水泥行业一季度处于产销停滞状态,但全年依然实现了9960亿元的营业收入和1833亿元的利润总额,再度刷新了市场对水泥盈利能力的认知。然而进入2021年后,这种不断向上突破的景气行情,是否还有望延续?

水泥大数据统计显示,2021年1-4月,全国规模以上水泥行业实现营业收入2900亿元,同比增长24.4%,利润总额365亿元,同比增速3.3%。和营收、利润总额双增加截然相反的是,2021年1-4月水泥行业利润率为12.6%,比2020年1-4月水泥行业利润率下滑2.6个百分点,较2019年前4个月下滑3.6个百分点,反映了水泥单位营业收入的盈利能力在下降。

“2020年1-3月份水泥行业受疫情影响基本是停摆状态,所以今年1-4月份这样的利润表现是大幅下滑的。今年水泥行业整体是量价下滑,成本上升的情况,企业利润空间已经压缩。”卓创分析侯林林认为,2021年水泥行业的盈利能力不会超过2020年。更重要的是,在既没有采暖需求,又没有迎峰度夏的4-5月份,煤炭价格也处于高位,今年煤炭价格一直比去年同期高出300-400元/吨,到10月份以后,煤炭采暖需求会进一步推涨煤炭价格。全年水泥盈利水平不容乐观。

不过,中银证券认为,当前水泥行业龙头企业海外战略布局稳步推进;错峰生产执行情况整体较好,行业自律水平较高;监管强化有利于进一步优化市场格局。今年仍有望迎来水泥行业大年行情,看好雨季过后的行情反弹。

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Correlation

Recently, the overall domestic demand has declined steadily, coupled with the weakening of local cost support, and the price of concrete has been stable and small. From November 14 to November 20, the national concrete price index closed at 112.35 points, down 0.13% annually and 10.08% year-on-year.

2024-11-22 18:03:03

Demand declines year on year, concrete prices are weak and stable..

2024-11-22 16:48:10

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center news, Fujian cement prices in East China once again pushed up, while the rest of the region was mainly stable in the week. This week, the Yangtze River Delta region is dominated by rainy weather, and the overall market demand is relatively stable, but some leading enterprises in the region still insist on selling at high prices, resulting in sales hovering at a low level.

2024-11-15 17:43:44

Recently, the concrete market demand has weakened, coupled with the cost-side support has not been further strengthened, enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, with a slight increase in individual regions. From November 7 to November 13, the national concrete price index closed at 112.50 points, up 0.03% annually and down 10.07% year-on-year.

2024-11-15 17:37:41

This week, the demand is insufficient, and the price of concrete is stable.

2024-11-15 16:48:55

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

Recently, the domestic temperature has dropped, local demand has dropped compared with the previous period, and the price of concrete market is mainly in a narrow range. From October 24 to October 30, the national concrete price index closed at 112.12 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.33% year-on-year.

2024-11-01 01:06:33

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

On October 24, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" was held in Wuhu, Anhui Province. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology, Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Century Xinfeng, Hubei, Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center.

2024-10-24 16:55:38

According to the data center of China Cement Market, cement prices in many places in East China continue to rise, and prices in some areas show signs of falling, and the specific situation needs to be tracked. For example, cement prices in Jiangxi are basically stable this week. Since the 8th, all parts of Jiangxi have been notified to push up the cement price by 20-30 yuan/ton. At present, the market is generally in a stable state after the price increase, and the price has not fluctuated significantly.

2024-10-18 17:33:36

The Symposium on High-quality Development of Liaoji Heimeng Cement Industry, sponsored by Liaoning Building Materials Industry Association and hosted by the Northeast Operating Zone of Shanshui Group, was held in Shenyang from October 12 to 13, 2024. Nearly 300 people from more than 200 cement enterprises in Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia attended the meeting. At the meeting, Li Yingke, Vice President of Liaoning Building Materials Industry Association and President of Cement Branch, delivered a welcome speech. Tan Qiang, Secretary-General of Cement Branch, presided over the meeting and briefed on the overall operation of "Three Provinces and One District" from January to September 2024.

2024-10-15 15:41:32

Recently, the domestic market demand has recovered slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall level is still significantly lower than same period in previous years, and the price of concrete before the Mid-Autumn Festival is mainly a smooth transition. From September 5th to September 11th, the national concrete price index closed at 113.17 points, and the ring ratio remained stable, with a year-on-year decline of 10.81%.

2024-09-14 19:27:38

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The market demand in East China continues to be depressed, and the concrete price is weak and stable.

2024-09-14 13:54:51

Recently, the price of raw materials has shown an upward trend again, but due to the lack of new orders in the concrete market and the fierce competition among enterprises, the focus of transactions continues to decline steadily. From August 29 to September 4, the national concrete price index closed at 113.17 points, down 0.45% annually and 11.09% year-on-year.

2024-09-06 17:22:16

The price of raw materials in the Yangtze River Delta region of East China has been rising, and the price of concrete is weak and stable.

2024-09-06 12:01:33

Most regions in China are affected by capital factors, lack of construction increment downstream, no improvement in concrete market demand, and downward pressure on local quotations. From August 22 to August 28, the national concrete price index closed at 113.68 points, down 0.42% annually and 11.12% year-on-year.

2024-08-30 17:31:27

Domestic high temperature rain weather has not yet subsided, downstream construction activity is still low, the concrete market is relatively flat, and the market price is stable. From August 15 to August 21, the national concrete price index closed at 114.16 points, down 0.28% annually and 11.40% year-on-year.

2024-08-23 17:35:52

Affected by the environment in East China, demand has not improved, and prices in some areas have fallen this week.

2024-08-23 17:17:05

Domestic construction conditions have not improved significantly, coupled with the small number of new key projects, the market demand is still relatively low, and the price of concrete has fallen more or risen less. From August 8 to August 14, the national concrete price index closed at 114.48 points, down 0.33% annually and 11.69% year-on-year.

2024-08-17 10:46:53

Demand is still weak, and concrete prices begin to decline.

2024-08-16 17:16:26

Due to the rainy weather in Zhejiang, the market demand is general, and the shipment volume is about 6-7%. In order to promote sales, some manufacturers reduce the price of cement, and try to push up the price to enhance market confidence, but the actual implementation remains to be observed. The overall market demand in Jiangsu has not improved significantly, with shipments hovering at 4-6% of normal production capacity. Manufacturers in southern Jiangsu have reduced prices for promotion, while the markets in northern and central Jiangsu are expected to face a downward trend.

2024-08-16 16:37:36

The domestic market continued to be controlled by the hot and rainy weather, the market demand was weak, the price of concrete continued to fall steadily, and the decline in Sichuan and Chongqing was relatively large. From August 1st to August 7th, the national concrete price index closed at 114.86 points, down 0.43% from the previous month.

2024-08-09 18:09:08

Due to the continuous high temperature weather in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the demand of construction industry has weakened, resulting in a general decline in cement sales, and the price of cement in some areas has dropped by 20-35 yuan/ton, among which Yangzhou, Taizhou, Huaian, Nanjing, Zhenjiang and other places in Jiangsu have been greatly affected. Due to the high temperature weather in Anhui, the construction site slowed down, the demand was weak, and the cement price in Ma'anshan, Chuzhou, Hefei and other areas was reduced by 10-20 yuan/ton. Cement prices in Zaozhuang, Linyi, Jining, Tai'an and other places fell by 10-30 yuan/ton due to cloudy weather and the resumption of clinker production in Shandong.

2024-08-09 16:18:24

In the traditional off-season, concrete demand continues to weaken..

2024-08-09 15:44:53

Domestic construction conditions have not been significantly improved, coupled with insufficient new projects in most regions, the concrete market is still flat. From July 25th to July 31st, the national concrete price index closed at 115.36 points, down 0.59% from the previous month.

2024-08-02 17:29:53

Rainy weather is frequent, concrete market demand is insufficient..

2024-08-02 16:50:42

According to the data center of China Cement Market, due to the low ex-factory prices in various regions, some regions began to resume pricing this week.

2024-08-02 16:30:32

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

Rainfall continued in many parts of the country, local typhoons invaded, downstream construction was slow, and concrete prices fell steadily. From July 18th to July 24th, the national concrete price index closed at 116.05 points, down 0.58%.

2024-07-26 20:17:51

In order to reduce inventory pressure, cement prices showed signs of a slight decline.

2024-07-26 15:37:00

We will jointly discuss and analyze the practice path of ultra-low emission in the cement industry, and promote the industry to move towards a more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly future.

2024-07-23 18:02:53

Since the 19th, some major manufacturers in Yongwentai area of Zhejiang have notified that the price of high-grade bulk cement will be raised by 30 yuan/ton, and the price of bagged and low-grade cement will be raised by 15 yuan/ton.

2024-07-23 14:44:02

Some regions in China are affected by high temperature and rain weather, coupled with insufficient new projects, the price of concrete is weakening. From July 11th to July 17th, the national concrete price index closed at 116.73 points, down 0.47% from the previous month.

2024-07-19 17:35:12

Demand is weak, raw material prices are bottoming out, and concrete prices are falling steadily..

2024-07-19 16:11:07

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, many off-peak production, in order to reduce inventory pressure, cement prices slightly declined signs.

2024-07-19 15:20:00

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the northeast region continued to implement the staggered peak kiln shutdown, clinker supply shortage, 5-10 days to push up 50-60 yuan/ton.

2024-07-12 17:29:19

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the overall market demand and sales in southwest China are weak due to the off-season market and the impact of rainy weather. The price of cement in some markets of Sichuan, Chongqing and Yunnan has been loosened and declined, ranging from 20-50 yuan/ton.

2024-07-12 17:26:00

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the price of cement in Guangdong and Guangxi markets has been stable this week, and the price in Hainan has fallen sharply. Prices in Hubei are mainly stable, while prices in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan are falling.

2024-07-12 17:23:24

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, heavy rainfall is prevalent in East China this week, with mountain torrents and floods in some areas. Many construction sites have been shut down, cement demand has plummeted, and cement prices have fallen slightly.

2024-07-12 15:40:36

Raw material prices are rising, and concrete prices are mainly stable..

2024-07-12 14:42:11

Rainwater in the south has decreased recently, but the growth rate of downstream construction demand is limited, and the price of concrete is mainly stable. From June 27th to July 3rd, the national concrete price index closed at 117.92 points, and the ring ratio remained stable.

2024-07-05 17:34:54

The terminal market demand is bleak, and the concrete price is weak and stable.

2024-07-05 16:46:41

Recently, the overall domestic demand has declined steadily, coupled with the weakening of local cost support, and the price of concrete has been stable and small. From November 14 to November 20, the national concrete price index closed at 112.35 points, down 0.13% annually and 10.08% year-on-year.