浙江降100元!水泥进入普跌模式!下半年行情怎么走?

2021-06-25 09:27:43

以浙江为例,6月以来,浙江完成三轮普降,幅度在90-100元/吨。

6月24日,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)下跌0.23%,报收148.09点。从近期市场表现来看,自6月3号以来,该指数一路下跌,16个工作日跌幅达5.6%。

水泥价格进入普跌模式浙江降幅达100元

据市场反馈,六月水泥行业进入传统淡季,各地需求趋弱,厂家库存有所走高,全国水泥价格整体呈现下行状态。以浙江为例,6月以来,浙江完成三轮普降,幅度在90-100元/吨。

浙北杭嘉湖绍地区:

6月1日起浙江杭州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴等地主要厂家通知下调各品种水泥价格30元/吨。

16日浙江地区主要企业对浙北杭州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴等地陆续通知下调各品种水泥价格30元/吨。

22日起浙江地区一些主要厂家对浙北杭州、绍兴、湖州、嘉兴地区再次通知下调各品种水泥价格30元/吨,区域其余同业预计稍晚几日跟进下调。

至此六月以来浙北杭嘉湖绍地区水泥价格已普降三轮,累计幅度达90元/吨。

浙中南及沿海地区:

6月4日浙中南金华、建德、衢州、丽水及沿海甬温台地区水泥价格下调30元/吨,部分袋装下调40元/吨。

18日起浙中南金华、建德、衢州、丽水及沿海温州、台州、宁波、舟山等多地主要厂家大幅通知下调各品种水泥价格50元/吨。

24日起浙中南金华、建德、衢州、丽水及沿海宁波、温州、台州等地主要厂家继续通知下调各品种水泥价格20元/吨。

经过三轮普降,浙中南及沿海地区累计降幅达100元/吨。

整体来看:

六月以来浙江地区水泥价格已完成三轮普降,幅度90-100元/吨,降后浙江地区P.O 42.5级水泥出厂价在400-420元/吨左右。

此外,上海、江苏、广东、福建等地不少水泥厂家近期也纷纷下调水泥价格,下调幅度不等。多重因素作用下,水泥价格进入普跌模式。(详情:骤降150元!42.5水泥价格跌破200!东北水泥南下第四轮降价开始

行业盈利极值或难突破

2016年下半年以来,随着供给侧结构性改革的持续推进,水泥行业逐步迎来持续数年的高景气行情,不仅水泥价格刷新历史极值,行业利润也连年创下新高。

在2018年水泥行业总利润达到1545亿元,盈利能力和毛利水平都创出历史新高后,2019年全年水泥行业利润更是达到1867亿元,同比增长19.6%。2020年,虽然受新冠肺炎疫情影响,水泥行业一季度处于产销停滞状态,但全年依然实现了9960亿元的营业收入和1833亿元的利润总额,再度刷新了市场对水泥盈利能力的认知。然而进入2021年后,这种不断向上突破的景气行情,是否还有望延续?

水泥大数据统计显示,2021年1-4月,全国规模以上水泥行业实现营业收入2900亿元,同比增长24.4%,利润总额365亿元,同比增速3.3%。和营收、利润总额双增加截然相反的是,2021年1-4月水泥行业利润率为12.6%,比2020年1-4月水泥行业利润率下滑2.6个百分点,较2019年前4个月下滑3.6个百分点,反映了水泥单位营业收入的盈利能力在下降。

“2020年1-3月份水泥行业受疫情影响基本是停摆状态,所以今年1-4月份这样的利润表现是大幅下滑的。今年水泥行业整体是量价下滑,成本上升的情况,企业利润空间已经压缩。”卓创分析侯林林认为,2021年水泥行业的盈利能力不会超过2020年。更重要的是,在既没有采暖需求,又没有迎峰度夏的4-5月份,煤炭价格也处于高位,今年煤炭价格一直比去年同期高出300-400元/吨,到10月份以后,煤炭采暖需求会进一步推涨煤炭价格。全年水泥盈利水平不容乐观。

不过,中银证券认为,当前水泥行业龙头企业海外战略布局稳步推进;错峰生产执行情况整体较好,行业自律水平较高;监管强化有利于进一步优化市场格局。今年仍有望迎来水泥行业大年行情,看好雨季过后的行情反弹。

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Correlation

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