停窑!老基建发力!华东水泥价格大面积上涨!

2020-08-22 13:15:53

对于未来的水泥价格走势,分析师认为,从8月份开始,价格会呈现逐步上涨的趋势,后续要看秋冬季复工生产方面会有多大的影响。

近日,随着“老基建”(传统基建)的加速回暖及部分地区停窑等因素影响,全国不少地区的水泥价格出现了上涨。

据中国水泥网行情中心消息,自长三角熟料价格第二轮回涨之后,16日-20日江苏地区苏锡常、南通、盐城、扬州、泰州等地水泥价格再次上调20-30元/吨;上海地区各品种水泥价格再次跟涨20元/吨;浙江北部及浙中南市场水泥价格先后通知上调30元/吨;安徽阜阳、淮南地区高标水泥价格上涨30元/吨。

预计长三角市场将再次普涨一轮。

湖北方面,据市场反馈,近来沿江下游市场提货量增加,加之前期水泥价格连续下跌,厂家涨价欲望较为强烈。为提升盈利,湖北武汉及鄂东地区主导企业计划于8月24日上调水泥价格30元/吨,具体情况有待跟进。

河南地区九月上旬将停窑,省内主要企业通知回涨水泥价格30元/吨,但涨前有降价情况,且需求一般落实待观察。

山东25日起计划停窑,局部水泥及熟料报价尝试回涨20-30元/吨。

《证券日报》记者从中国水泥网了解到,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)从7月31日的135.95,上涨至8月19日的138.26,涨幅约1.7%。其中,长江水泥价格指数(YRCEMPI)上涨约5.91%。

对此,行业分析师对记者表示,全国范围内的水泥价格普遍上涨是从7月底开始的。

“其中,华东地区最先开始出现了价格上调,河南等地的价格上涨要更早一些,这是由于前期价格下跌幅度比较大,生产厂家停窑之后,价格才开始上涨。按照往年的规律来说,8月中上旬这个时间点价格出现普遍反弹,是属于季节性变化。”该分析师说。

据该分析师介绍,水泥的需求领域主要集中在传统基建和房地产方面。今年以来,房地产方面的需求相对较弱,而中西部地区在传统基建方面的增长更明显,剔除一季度受疫情影响的情况来看,整体的水泥需求和去年相比是相对持平的状态,其中在5月份-7月份,需求恢复很快。

对于未来的水泥价格走势,分析师认为,从8月份开始,价格会呈现逐步上涨的趋势,后续要看秋冬季复工生产方面会有多大的影响。到三季度末和四季度,价格上涨与否还要看供需两个方面。

需求方面,入秋之后需求进入旺季,南方地区的气温不会很低,施工活动比较集中。

供给方面,水泥生产行业每年11月中旬进入冬季错峰生产期,水泥企业集中停产,出现供需缺口,这是每年年底水泥价格冲到高点的一个主要原因。但是现在对于冬季错峰,开始避免一刀切,节能减排方面控制得比较好的企业,可以豁免错峰,目前还不好判断政策走向会对供给端产生多大的影响。

太平洋证券分析师分析认为,今年5月份-7月份,基建投资单月增速分别为8.3%、6.8%、7.9%,随着基建逆周期调节不断加码,以重点工程为主的京津冀地区水泥需求将稳定增长,行业未来供需格局有望改善,区域景气度回升。

北京匀丰资产管理有限公司基金经理在接受采访时表示,下半年水泥需求会持续回升,致使行业景气度逐步提升,预计行情将会持续到明年春节前后。他认为,未来随着积压的需求持续释放,A股水泥板块投资机会也会聚集在部分龙头企业当中。

此外,中国水泥网总经理江勋日前预测下半年水泥价格将有小幅增长,市场或呈分化,优先看好华东市场行情。全国P.O42.5散装水泥,月均价格区间[440,510],四季度仍有望冲击去年最高位,全年行业利润预计可达1500亿。

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Correlation

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The Net Zero Industrial Awards recognize and celebrate outstanding innovation in industrial decarbonization, focusing on people and projects that are revolutionizing energy-intensive industries and dramatically reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Cemex 's Solar clinker project is in partnership with cleantech company Synhelion, which developed the high-temperature solar thermal technology it uses