Zhang Liqun: "Sino-US Trade War" Has Limited Impact on Domestic Fixed Asset Investment

   In recent days, the statement that "the Sino-US trade war will break out, which will stimulate the increase of investment in infrastructure and real estate in the short term" has been widely spread in the industry. Supporters take the Japanese government's policy after the Sino-Japanese trade war in the last century as an example. "In the case of export restrictions, the government will promote the construction of real estate and stimulate domestic demand."

   On March 30, at the annual meeting of China Cement Network in 2018, the reporter interviewed Zhang Liqun, a researcher in the Department of Macroeconomic Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council.

   Zhang Liqun believes that the "Sino US trade war" has limited impact on domestic fixed asset investment. Large cement demanders such as real estate and infrastructure will still maintain a relatively stable growth rate, but this has nothing to do with the impact of the trade war. "At present, many infrastructure construction in China is still in the stage of making up for shortcomings and laying a foundation, especially the promotion of urbanization rate, the acceleration of the construction of urban agglomerations and characteristic towns."

& emsp; & emsp; "The development of real estate will also maintain a high level, which is also related to the recommendation of urbanization. Although different cities are in different development periods, they are basically showing a good development trend.". The demand for improved and rigid housing is still increasing. Zhang Liqun said, "In 2017, real estate developers are still active in land acquisition, and the volume of land transactions nationwide increased by 15.8%, which is the highest point in recent years.". Real estate will not fall off a cliff.

   Zhang Liqun also believes that infrastructure investment will maintain a certain growth rate from the perspective of local government debt improvement in the past two years. "Although borrowing from banks has been restricted, the special bonds of local governments have been increased, and the central government's financial support has also increased.". If we say that the Sino US trade war has an impact on infrastructure, we should think that it is to strengthen infrastructure investment.