[原创]浙江水泥产业运行现状分析

2017-11-25 10:33:49

2016年,浙江省全省共计生产水泥1.08亿吨,全国排名第11,占全国的比重为4.49%。本文通过水泥,熟料,产能利用率和价格四个方面来分析浙江的水泥市场情况。

  1.1 浙北、浙西区域水泥产量规模大,年产量继续下降

  2016年,浙江省全省共计生产水泥1.08亿吨,全国排名第11,占全国的比重为4.49%。从浙江省2005年以来的水泥产量图上我们可以看出,浙江的水泥产量增长并不和全国趋势一致,全国水泥产量直到2015年才出现负增长,而浙江省水泥产量在2008年就已经出现了负增长,且这十多年来的增长起伏不定,从2014年开始,更是连续三年保持负增长。2017年情况似乎略有好转,截至今年6月份浙江省2017年上半年生产水泥5082.65万吨,较去年同期增长1.6%,截至2017年10月,浙江生产水泥9007.73万吨,较去年同期增长5.22%,按照目前的市场行情,今年浙江水泥产量将实现同比增长。

  2016年,全国人均水泥产量为1.74吨/人,浙江的人均水泥产量高于全国,为1.94吨/人,超出全国人均水平11.49%。从历史来看,近十多年来,浙江人均水泥产量的最高值出现在2013年,达到了2.69吨/人。浙江人均水泥产量虽然有起伏,但是总体上我们可以将2013年作为分界点,此前在不断的增长,过了2013年,人均水平开始下降。

  图1:浙江省2005-2017年水泥产量和同比增速(%)

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  从浙江水泥产量分布图上明显看得出浙江水泥生产是分区域的,总的来说是西北高,东南低。其中杭州和衢州是浙江水泥产量最高的区域。根据浙江省统计局的数据显示,2015年杭州和衢州分别生产了1798.27万吨和1652.05万吨的水泥,位列浙江省前两位。金华,嘉兴和宁波市紧随其后,产量在1500万吨上下。

  丽水,台州和温州市并没有熟料生产量,区域内只有一些粉磨厂,因此水泥产量相对也较低。舟山也没有熟料生产线,但是本地有两个小型粉磨站,供给了部分市场,但是其水泥需求主要还是依靠外来流入,海螺在当地占据了大部分市场。

  图2:浙江省2015年各地市水泥产量分布图

  数据来源:浙江统计局,中国水泥研究院

  从各地级市的供求比散点图(供求比为估计值,为产量比重与固投比重的比值,>1为输出型,<1为输入型)看,浙江水泥输出城市有衢州,湖州,金华,嘉兴和丽水这五个城市,从市场了解到的行情也显示,湖州是南方水泥在浙江区域的主要生产基地,南方水泥在衢州也有较多的生产线,湖州主要供给的是长三角市场,除浙江外,上海也是其对外输出市场,而衢州水泥除了供给台州,温州等省内市场外,还向外省江西赣东北地区输出水泥。输入型城市较为典型的是舟山,温州,台州等,舟山是浙江省输入型的最典型的代表,本地的小粉磨站完全无法满足本地水泥需求,海螺从宁波销往舟山的水泥占据了舟山主要市场。我们看到杭州虽然是水泥生产较大的城市,但是因为杭州市庞大的固投,大量的基建和房地产项目都需要水泥,本地水泥供给仍然显得供不应求。

  图3:2015年浙江各地级市水泥供需比散点图

  数据来源:浙江统计局,中国水泥研究院

  1.2 新型干法熟料产能保持平稳,无大幅度增长

  进入21世纪以来,浙江省的新型干法熟料产能变化呈现出快速增长到位的变化,在2001-2008年,浙江省的新型干法熟料产能增长异常迅速,尤其是在2001-2005年这个阶段,每年都保持超高速增长,2002年增长265%,2003年增长141%,2004年增长81%,2005年增长26%。短短的几年时间就从300万吨的产能增长到6000万吨。

  之后增长停滞了2年,到2008年再次出现13%的增长,2009年和2010年也都小幅度的增长了一些,但进入2011年以后,浙江的新型干法熟料产能增长就陷入了长期的停滞,直到2016年才再新投产一条生产线。截至目前为止,根据中国水泥网统计数据显示,浙江省总计拥有新型干法熟料生产线64条,合计产能7424.5万吨。

  图4:2002-2016年浙江省新型干法熟料产能情况

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  从生产线规模上来看,浙江省并无超过5000吨的超大型生产线。根据中国水泥网的统计数据显示,浙江省内的熟料生产线主要以2500t/d和5000t/d的生产线为主,其中又是2500t/d的生产线最多,总计有31条,占据所有生产线数量的48%,其次是5000t/d的生产线,总计有23条,2500t/d和5000t/d的生产线占据了所有生产线数量的84%。剩下的小规模生产线仍然有10条。从企业来看,这些小规模的生产线主要还是一些地区性的小企业,南方水泥,红狮水泥这些大型企业在浙江区域主要还是以2500t/d及以上的生产线为主。

  图5:浙江省新型干法熟料生产线分布情况

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  浙江一共拥有11个地级市,其中东部的舟山,台州,丽水和温州没有熟料生产线,这些城市的熟料主要依赖于从域外购买。从分布规模上来看,浙西北地区集中了浙江主要的熟料生产基地,杭州是浙江所有城市中熟料产能规模最大的,熟料产能超1700万吨/年,其次是湖州地区,湖州的熟料产能规模为1600万吨/年,衢州和金华也拥有1000多万吨的熟料产能,绍兴,嘉兴和宁波的熟料产能略低,绍兴为424万吨/年,嘉兴为155万吨/年,宁波只有宁波科环的一条生产线,产能为77.5万吨/年。

  图6:浙江省新型干法熟料产能情况分布图

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  1.3 熟料产量继续降低,产能利用率再创新低

  根据浙江省制定的《浙江省淘汰落后产能规划(2013-2017)》中提出的目标,力争累计完成淘汰落后水泥450万吨,但我们发现记录在案的仅在2015年成淘汰了一座年产能75万吨的回转窑。此外,根据中国水泥网的了解,浙江目前存在水泥窑线基本都是新型干法熟料生产线,并不存在太多落后熟料产能。

  从浙江省历年来水泥熟料的产量上来看,浙江早在2007年熟料产量就已经达到了历史高峰,当年生产水泥熟料6102.65万吨,产能利用率超过了100%。此后,浙江省的水泥熟料产量就呈现出稳步下降的状态,仅在2011年和2014年出现小幅度反弹,但是反弹幅度非常小,无法改变熟料产量总体下降的趋势。截止2016年,浙江省生产水泥熟料4796万吨,较2015年同比下降10%,这是自2008年以来降幅最大的一年。

  从熟料产能利用率的情况我们能更加清楚地看出浙江省目前水泥熟料的生产情况。在2007年浙江省新型干法熟料产能利用率达到100%后,熟料产能利用率就开始走下坡路,中间虽有起伏,但是总体下降的趋势仍然在延续。到2016年,熟料产能利用率更是跌破了70%这条线,仅维持在65%,一年内熟料产能利用率就下降了8个百分点,更是低于全国平均熟料产能利用率67%的平均线。

  图7:浙江2005-2016熟料产量和新型干法熟料产能利用率

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  1.4 水泥价格快速增长,单价突破400元大关

  从浙江近4年来的P.O 42.5等级散装水泥价格来看,我们可以看到这四年的价格趋势是一个近似U型结构。自从2013年末,浙江省水泥冲到396.66元/吨的价格后,P.O 42.5散装的价格一路狂泻,一直下降到2015年8月才到达底部。此后的近1年时间里,价格在底部呈现上下波动,虽然有上涨但是最终还是再次回到250元的底部,直到2016年8月,浙江的水泥价格才开始出现上涨的趋势。

  截止2017年11月,浙江省P.O 42.5等级散装水泥价格已经冲破了400元的价位,达到410.97元/吨,是近四年来的最高值。虽然目前浙江地区已经进入深秋,气温大幅度下降,但是还未到冬季室外停工的季节,各项工程都在抓进度赶工,需求仍然旺盛,因此浙江地区价格仍然有继续上涨的动力。

  图8:浙江2013-2017年P.O 42.5散装水泥价格(元/吨)

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

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