从长三角地区看未来水泥需求发展以及如何稳定市场

2017-07-20 09:55:11

今年,国内水泥需求表现向好,长三角地区水泥行情同样持续回暖,那么在未来水泥需行情是否还能继续保持现有态势?从长三角地区水泥市场态势,或许能够找到答案。

  长江流域水泥产量在全国占比最大,利润总额也最大,长江水路的存在使得长三角地区可以影响到长江中上游的市场,整个长江流域水泥市场可谓是牵一发而动全身。此外,长江流域市场处于全国最发达的地区,无论是从需求还是竞争格局上来讲,它都是国内其他区域可以看齐的方向。

  在“第三届中国水泥上市公司年会暨2017基建建材资本化高峰论坛”上,中国水泥网董事长邵俊就表示,长江流域将近有10亿吨水泥,对整个中国水泥未来发展很有影响。其中,长三角地区作为我国发展领先,基础设施建设较为完善的区域,更是在全国水泥市场起到了风向标的作用。

  今年,国内水泥需求表现向好,长三角地区水泥行情同样持续回暖,那么在未来水泥需行情是否还能继续保持现有态势?从长三角地区水泥市场态势,或许能够找到答案。

  在这个问题上,上海水泥协会会长匡鸿认为长三角地区还有大量基础设施建设可以做,大量的基础设施是水泥主要需求来源之一。

  首先,来自于长江三角洲城市群的建设。2016年5月11日,国务院常务会议通过《长江三角洲城市群发展规划》,提出培育更高水泥的经济增长极。到2030年,全面建成具有全球应影响力的世界级城市群。长三角城市群在上海市和江苏、浙江、安徽三省部分城市范围内,由以上海为核心、联系紧密的多个城市组成,主要分布于国家“两横三纵”城市化格局的优化开发和重点开发区域。匡鸿说,实施这个规划,有大量的基础设施要做。地上管廊的建设,棚户区的改造,对水泥的需求量都十分巨大。

  其次,是城市基础设施。上海水泥协会会长匡鸿认为,改革开放时期,大量的房子以及基础设施建设拔地而起,那时候的建筑材料的选择以及质量上都有所欠缺,如今已经到了更新换代的时候。当时的长三角地区建筑的投入非常巨大,现在已经进入了需要更新换代的时期。从这些角度看长三角的建设以及水泥需求远远还没有达到回落的情况。

  除此以外,匡鸿也谈到这与国民经济发展有关。匡鸿拿上海来举例,2016年上海GDP增速在6.5%左右。从今年1-4月份的执行情况上看,已超去年。在长江三角洲城市群规划当中,上海作为全球城市中心,城市的功能性需要完善,需要投大量的基础设施建设。此外,还有上海的轨道交通,今年,上海地铁将新增运营里程55公里。

  那么哪些举措对稳定水泥市场有好处呢?

  一是提高产能集中度。葛洲坝副总经理王学军认为,长江流域小企业太多,需要大企业进行一个重组,其中包括葛洲坝。令人表示欣慰的是,水泥行业的在此区域的产业集中度较前两年有了进一步提高,两材合并、华新拉法基均发生在长江三角洲地区,匡鸿表示。

  其次,加强行业自律自觉性。自律体现在两个方面,一是在政策的自觉执行上。葛洲坝副总经理王学军表示,在去产能、错峰生产背景下,企业应协同共进,把政策执行落实到位,才能把企业的效益提上去。再者是水泥市场的监督上。匡鸿认为,目前水泥市场还存在一些假冒名牌产品、以次充好等现象。中国水泥网董事长邵俊也谈及,拿知名品牌水泥进行二次加工的现象屡见不鲜。加强打假力度,加大社会监督能力能够有效规范市场,维护好市场秩序。

  总体来看,目前长三角地区目前水泥需求稳定,供给情况相对较好,盈利也相对较为平稳。在供给侧改革持续推进的背景下,水泥行业形势将日趋明朗化。而从全国范围来看,基建投资仍然是未来国内经济发展的重点,中国经济中高速增长态势不会改变,以此为基准,水泥作为基础建设必不可少的原材料,前景可期。

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