The Yangtze River Basin Economic Zone, which accounts for only 20% of the total area of the country, but accounts for about 40% of the total population and economy, is the mainstay of China's economic development. Similarly, the cement market along the Yangtze River has always been the core market of the cement industry, which plays an important role in stabilizing the national cement market.
Recently, the leading cement enterprises in many cities along the Yangtze River have notified to raise the price of cement. However, according to the actual market situation, the competition in the cement market in the Yangtze River Basin is very fierce and the production capacity is seriously excessive. Can this round of price increase be implemented smoothly? How long can it be stable? I'm afraid it's a big problem.
Supply exceeds
demand. The Yangtze River Basin market mainly involves Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, Sichuan and other provinces and cities. It is the core battlefield for domestic cement enterprises. Most of the top ten enterprises have set up factories along the Yangtze River. Cement enterprises gather in the region, and clinker production capacity accounts for one third of the country, about 600 million tons.
It is understood that in previous years, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration were the main support areas for cement demand in the Yangtze River Basin, with annual cement consumption of about 800 million tons. Excluding the impact of overcapacity and foreign clinker/cement, the Yangtze River Basin alone can produce about 900 million tons of cement in the whole year, which has obviously exceeded the market demand, showing a trend of oversupply.
Demand continues to decline
, and the demand for cement in the Yangtze River Basin market has not recovered as scheduled. According to the big data of China Cement Network, the ratio of cement storage capacity is generally higher than the same period in previous years, which is more than 65%.
According to the law of current market development, cement demand is likely to decline further in the future. When the cement market is doomed to a downward demand, the market competition will become more intense. Poor
market synergy When a region takes the lead in raising prices, other regions will quickly dump to the region by taking advantage of the Yangtze River water transport, and the market share of local cement enterprises will be squeezed, forcing them to compete for market share by means of price reduction, which will lead to a rapid decline in prices. Once a regional price increase fails, the surrounding areas are vulnerable to its impact, and the rising prices are difficult to maintain.
In addition, the market along the Yangtze River involves many provinces, with complex provincial conditions and great differences, and the supply and demand market is unpredictable. In addition, the current demand for cement has further declined, and the confidence of enterprises along the Yangtze River market is generally insufficient.
According to the big data of China Cement Network, the confidence index of cement market along the Yangtze River has been below 50% since this year, and the lack of confidence has a huge negative impact on the implementation of this round of price increases. The actual situation also verifies this point, it is understood that some enterprises in Chongqing along the Yangtze River, Wuhan market, Wuhu, Anhui and other places are still in a wait-and-see state.
Generally speaking, the cement market in the Yangtze River Basin "affects the whole body", and this round of price increases still needs to wait and see.
