2020, the prices of major industrial means of production in Inner Mongolia fluctuated slightly. Among them, steel and non-ferrous metal prices rebounded, chemical products and glass prices were mixed, and cement prices rose slightly. It is expected that the prices of steel and non-ferrous metals in Inner Mongolia will fluctuate in the fourth quarter.
1. Price operation of
major industrial means of production in the whole region (1) Steel prices rebounded, with average prices lower than those in the first three quarters of 2020 in the same period
last year, and steel prices rebounded in the whole region. From the point of view of monthly price level changes, with the continuous spread of the new coronavirus epidemic and the increase of uncertainties in the world economy, a series of policies and measures have been introduced in China to comprehensively promote the resumption of manufacturing production, but due to the fact that the market demand for procurement has not yet fully erupted, and the output of steel production enterprises has been rising, which also makes the market supply. From January to April, steel prices remained under pressure. In May, steel production kept rising, market demand tended to pick up, enterprises and society accelerated the pace of destocking, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coke rose significantly, and enterprise activities were basically stable. In June, under the dual demand brought by seasonal peak season and rush work, the construction site accelerated the construction progress, the start-up rate rose sharply, the steel shipment volume repeatedly reached new heights, the market demand further recovered, and the steel price fluctuated and rebounded.
From July to September, the domestic economic recovery after the epidemic continued to improve, the strong domestic demand boosted market expectations, the construction site accelerated the construction progress, the operating rate rose sharply, the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises continued to rise, and steel shipments continued to rise. Under the boost of black commodity futures, the prices of raw materials represented by iron ore and coke have repeatedly reached new heights, which has led to the upward shift of the cost focus of enterprises, thus forming a strong support for steel prices. Driven by the rising cost and the peak season effect, steel prices in Inner Mongolia continued to rise, but the overall price still did not reach the same period last year.
From January to September, the prices of construction steel in the whole region rose and fell by 0.03%, -1.40%, -2.10%, -0.91%, -0.34%, 1.45%, 0.35%, 0.71% and 0.90%, respectively. Ordinary plate prices rose or fell by 0.02%, -1.25%, -2.80%, -0.58%, 1.03%, 1.27%, 1.98%, 0.71% and 0.68% respectively, which shows that the month-on-month prices of the two categories of steel products have recovered slightly. As of September, the comprehensive average price of construction steel and ordinary plate in the whole region was 3861.81 yuan and 4271.78 yuan respectively. Compared with the beginning of the year, the price of construction steel decreased slightly by 1.39%, and the price of ordinary plate increased slightly by 0.96%.
From the perspective of overall price changes, the comprehensive average prices of construction steel and ordinary plate in the first three quarters of 2020 were 3812.38 yuan and 4160.83 yuan, respectively. Compared with the first three quarters of 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the same period), the prices of construction steel and ordinary plate decreased by 7.12% and 7.23% respectively.
(2) Prices of non-ferrous metals fluctuated and rose
in the first three quarters of 2020. Affected by the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the price of non-ferrous metals fluctuated and declined. Later, due to the implementation of positive policies such as "six stability" and "six guarantees", a large number of projects started construction, and orders in the market gradually rebounded. As the domestic epidemic situation is basically under control, the economy continues to recover, the national production and living order is accelerating to recover, driven by the peak season effect, consumption is gradually warming up, and downstream consumption such as automobiles is rebounding significantly, which plays an important role in promoting the recovery of market confidence and the boost of non-ferrous metal prices.
As of September, Copper (1 # electrolytic copper, The average selling prices of cathode copper), aluminum (AOO aluminum ingots), lead (1 # lead ingots), zinc (0 # zinc ingots), tin (1 # tin ingots) and nickel (1 #) were RMB52,841.67 per ton, RMB0.67 15231, RMB0.67 16266, RMB0.67 20866, RMB0.67 150041 and RMB1.67 12384, respectively. Compared with the beginning of the year, the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin and nickel increased slightly by 5.33%, 2.23%, 3.60%, 1.72% and 3.20% respectively, while the price of lead decreased slightly by 1.16%.
Copper (1 # electrolytic copper, Cathode copper), aluminum (AOO aluminum ingots), lead (1 # lead ingots), zinc (0 # zinc ingots), tin (1 # tin ingots) and nickel (1 #) in the first three quarters of the region were 47,775.19 yuan per ton, 86 yuan 14341, 52 yuan 15843, 11 yuan 18611, 2.04 yuan 14366, The 113711 of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and tin decreased by 2.09%, 0.42%, 11.88%, 15.60% and 3.63% respectively, while the price of nickel increased by 5.44%.
(3) Prices of chemical products were mixed. In the first three quarters of
2020, prices of chemical products were mixed. As of September, The comprehensive average prices of high-pressure polyethylene (film grade), polypropylene (wiredrawing), polyvinyl chloride (produced by calcium carbide method), ethanol (fuel ethanol), sulfuric acid (98% acid) and soda ash (industrial alkali content ≥ 98.5%) in the whole district are 88500. 00 yuan, 7291.00 yuan, 6215.00 yuan, 5600.00 Compared with the beginning of the year, the price of ethanol increased by 5.66%, the prices of high-pressure polyethylene, polypropylene and polyvinyl chloride decreased by 13.27%, 2.62% and 3.64% respectively, and the prices of sulfuric acid and soda ash were flat. The average selling prices of
high-pressure polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride, ethanol, sulfuric acid and soda ash in the first three quarters were 9170.37 yuan, 6944.26 yuan, 5981.67 yuan, 5768.52 yuan, 756.67 yuan and 1550.00 yuan per ton, respectively. The prices of ethanol, sulfuric acid and soda ash increased by 5.13%, 0.74% and 1.27% respectively, while the prices of high-pressure polyethylene, polypropylene and polyvinyl chloride decreased by 16.12%, 15.97% and 5.38% respectively.
(IV) The price of cement rose slightly and the price of glass fluctuated
slightly. In the first three quarters of 2020, the price of cement rose slightly and the price of glass fluctuated slightly. As of September, the average sales price of three kinds of Portland cement in the whole region was 357.32 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% over the price at the beginning of the year. In September, the average price of 5mm float glass and 5mm tempered glass in the whole region was 26.79 yuan and 42.03 yuan per square meter respectively. Compared with the beginning of the year, the price of 5mm float glass increased slightly by 3.22%, and the price of 5mm tempered glass decreased slightly by 2.65%. The average price of
three kinds of Portland cement in the first three quarters is 356.54 yuan/ton; the average price of 5 mm float glass and 5 mm tempered glass in the first three quarters is 26.03 yuan and 42.45 yuan per square meter respectively. Compared with the same period last year, the price of cement decreased slightly by 4.04%, the price of 5mm float glass increased slightly by 4.70%, and the price of 5mm tempered glass decreased slightly by 0.27%.
2. Forecast
of the price trend of some industrial means of production in the later period (I) Steel
With the epidemic basically under control, the domestic economy is in the stage of rapid recovery, and the economic order has basically returned to normal. Although there are some uncertainties in the steel market demand in the later period, there is still room for growth. At present, the construction industry, machinery, automobile and other manufacturing industries are recovering well, which makes the demand for steel continuously released. The growth rate of automobile sales has been maintained at more than 10% for four consecutive months. At the same time, the infrastructure is expected to perform better, and the market demand will continue to strengthen. After entering the fourth quarter, due to the impact of production restriction in the heating season, the supply side of the steel market will be tight, more stringent environmental protection policies may be introduced, and some steel mills in the surrounding areas such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will also stop production for maintenance. In addition, because the steel inventory is still at a high level, which also has a squeezing effect on production, and the price of raw materials is also at a relatively high level, the steel market will show a pattern of "weak supply and strong demand" in the later period. It is expected that steel prices in Inner Mongolia will fluctuate and rise in the fourth quarter.
(2) Non-ferrous metals
At present, the national production and living order is recovering rapidly, macroeconomic expectations are improving, consumption is gradually warming up, and downstream consumption such as automobiles has rebounded significantly, which plays an important role in promoting the recove ry of market confidence and the boost of non-ferrous metal prices. At the same time, with the gradual economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the international market demand has partially recovered, the overseas market vitality of non-ferrous metals has increased, and the import and export of manufacturing industry has further improved. In October, the new export order index and import index were 50.8% and 50.4%, respectively, 1.7 and 1.4 percentage points higher than last month, rising above the boom and bust line for the first time this year. At the same time, the recovery of key industries has accelerated, with the PMI of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries at 54.5% and 53.0%, respectively, higher than 1.7 and 0.3 percentage points last month, and the driving role of new momentum has increased. As the price rises and consumption continues to improve, the pressure on the operation of the non-ferrous metal industry will be further eased. It is expected that the price of non-ferrous metals in Inner Mongolia will rise at a low level in the fourth quarter.
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