Ed Sullivan, chief economist of the Portland Cement Association (PCA), said recently that PCA expects cement consumption in the United States to grow by 3.5% in 2017-2018 based on an analysis of data and policies that may affect the development of the cement industry. Sullivan, speaking ahead of the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, said that although the U.S. federal government has not yet proposed specific policies, the association's forecast for the future is based on more conservative benchmarks, such as infrastructure spending and tax reform.
"While fiscal stimulus will boost cement consumption, there are other economic factors that can hinder growth," Sullivan said. "Infrastructure policies also take time to implement, so you will see that it takes 11 to 22 months for a policy to really implement."
"Tax reform will affect cement consumption because it will drive consumer spending and confidence in the housing market," Sullivan said. Sullivan added: When you hire a worker, you hire a taxpayer, and the additional excise tax and spending generated will help drive modest growth in public buildings and the housing market. Generally speaking, we believe that the fundamentals supporting economic growth are positive. Of course, we will also pay attention to how the U.S. government solves the problems of inflation and immigration, but we are confident about the growth of cement consumption. At present, it seems that this growth will probably be achieved by 2018.
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