There is no doubt that Italy's constitutional referendum has failed! This is another "black swan" event in the global financial market in 2016, following the two risk events of Britain's exit from Europe and the US presidential election, and is considered by market participants to be the biggest "black swan" this year.
A defeat in the referendum would exacerbate the eruption of a crisis in Italy's banking sector, which has been under pressure because of a large number of non-performing loans and worries about whether it can be recapitalized. And in the first week of December, Italy's third largest bank in crisis, Siana Bank, will launch a project to raise 5 billion euros in cash, which may fail, triggering fears of bank failures and risks to the banking system.
Earlier, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said he would not stay in office if he lost the referendum on constitutional reform. The coming to power of populist parties will enable Italy to follow Britain's footsteps and launch a referendum on "leaving Europe". The biggest difference between Italy's referendum and Britain's exit from Europe is that Britain uses the pound, while Italy does use the euro, the currency of the European Union, so Britain is a local event to some extent, and once Italy's Eurosceptics and Brexiteers come to power, the prelude to the disintegration of the euro zone may begin at any time.
In the short term, in the foreign exchange market, the depreciation of the euro after leaving Europe will lead to the appreciation of the US dollar, which will lead to the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar. Economists say Italy's departure from the European Union could panic financial markets, lead to capital outflows from mainland China, intensify pressure on the renminbi to depreciate and challenge the central bank's monetary policy management.
The failure of the Italian referendum will also have a certain impact on China's foreign trade. The economic impact of Italy's exit from Europe on the EU may affect China's exports, especially if the EU tends to adopt trade protection policies, which will affect bilateral trade between China and Europe.
For the cement industry, the failure of the Italian referendum will undoubtedly add another haze to the overseas development of Chinese cement. With the increasing pressure of RMB devaluation, the cost of foreign investment of domestic enterprises will increase, which will hinder the pace of overseas development of Chinese enterprises.
In addition, Italy is the end of the ancient Silk Road and the intersection of Maritime Silk Road. Italy will play an important role in the construction of the "the Belt and Road" from a political, economic and geographical point of view. Italian Prime Minister Renzi also expressed the hope that the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" would strengthen the political, economic, trade, and cultural ties among Asian and European countries and contribute to the maintenance of world peace and stability. The failure of the Italian referendum and the resignation of Lunzi will bring more uncertainty to Italy's participation in the construction of the "the Belt and Road". At the same time, Italy's Five Star Movement pursues populism, opposes globalization and has an exclusive nature. The environment for Chinese enterprises to invest abroad may deteriorate, and the layout of cement enterprises along the Belt and Road may be hindered.
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