It is unknown whether the Italian referendum on December 4 will become another "black swan" event after Britain's exit from Europe and the US general election. But there is no doubt that the event has attracted the attention of the market, and the results will attract much attention from investors.
The referendum on constitutional reform in Italy is seen as a risk point for the European Union after the referendum on Britain's exit from Europe, while the dissatisfaction of the people in southern Italy with the Renzi government is the biggest risk point for the referendum. Deutsche Bank puts the probability of losing the referendum as high as 60%. Once Italy leaves Europe, the following aspects of the Chinese market will be impacted:
Impact on RMB
If Italy leaves Europe, the euro exchange rate is bound to fall sharply, although it is good for those who go to Europe to study and travel. But in the short term, in the foreign exchange market, the depreciation of the euro after leaving Europe will lead to the appreciation of the US dollar, which will lead to the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar.
Economists say Italy's departure from the European Union could panic financial markets, lead to capital outflows from mainland China, intensify pressure on the renminbi to depreciate and challenge the central bank's monetary policy management. Impact on China's Foreign Trade
Some analysts believe that the economic impact of Italy's exit from Europe on the EU may affect China's exports, especially once the EU tends to adopt trade protection policies, which will affect bilateral trade between China and Europe. The political and military impact on China
In fact, neither Britain's exit from Europe nor Italy's exit from Europe has a direct impact on China, but a series of problems caused by its exit from Europe may have a huge impact on China, the most serious of which is the disintegration of the European Union.
After the collapse of the European Union, there will be a large vacuum in the world, whether military, economic or political, and the countries that have not fallen will begin to seize these areas. As an emerging power with weak overseas projection power, China is obviously at a disadvantage in grabbing territory. A multi-polar world is good for China's development, but if the "pole" of European integration falls, the United States will probably be happy.
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