[水泥指数]:价格“磨底” 静待旺季回归

2015-08-24 14:50:12

上周,华北地区受大阅兵影响,工业企业及混凝土搅拌站将进入停产限产阶段,阅兵前赶工项目将陆续停工,需求将明显下滑,京津冀价格均出现回落,东北一带经济增长乏力,加之雨水影响,需求继续萎缩,黑、辽部分价格走低明显,而华东、西北已基本止跌,浙江出现调涨信号,新疆、青海企业也有调涨意愿,总体行情维持低稳运行,中西南部前期调涨省份涨后走稳,贵州、湖南等地仍有局部上涨。

  上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为81.66点,环比下跌0.44%,维持小幅走跌态势。周内,华北地区受大阅兵影响,工业企业及混凝土搅拌站将进入停产限产阶段,阅兵前赶工项目将陆续停工,需求将明显下滑,京津冀价格均出现回落,东北一带经济增长乏力,加之雨水影响,需求继续萎缩,黑、辽部分价格走低明显,而华东、西北已基本止跌,浙江出现调涨信号,新疆、青海企业也有调涨意愿,总体行情维持低稳运行,中西南部前期调涨省份涨后走稳,贵州、湖南等地仍有局部上涨。上周,长江流域水泥价格指数为73.89点,环比下跌0.05%,同比下跌21.13%,同比跌幅缩窄至目前为止年内最低水平。

图1:中国水泥价格指数走势图

数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥网指数中心

  分区域来看,上周,华北、东北地区水泥价格指数领跌,环比分别下跌1.45%和0.73%,西南、中南、西北也分别下跌0.4%、0.23%和0.22%,华东水泥价格指数跌幅最小,环比仅微跌0.09%,基本与上期持平。与去年同期相比,华东地区水泥价格同比下跌21.02%,同比跌幅继续呈缩窄走势,华北跌幅逼近20%,为19.16%,西南、中南、东北则分别下跌16.55%、14.95%和14.37%,西北地区同比跌幅最小,为5.79%,且较上期缩窄0.54个百分点。

表1:上周六大区域水泥价格指数变化情况

数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥网指数中心

  上周,根据中国水泥网行情数据中心反馈,东北地区降雨频繁,黑龙江西北部、吉林中南部和辽宁中部出现大雨,局部地区更有暴雨,哈尔滨销量下滑明显,部分品牌价格走低,鸡西、双鸭山个别品牌价格也有30元/吨的下调;辽宁辽阳、丹东、大连、铁岭等地水泥价格均有下挫,沈阳、大连等主要城市需求疲软,企业同比销量下降超三成,P.O42.5散装水泥价格仅220~240元/吨;吉林水泥报价相对平稳,四平需求较差,中小企业自主停产情况增加。

  华北地区将于8月28日至9月4日实行减排措施,水泥产销将受到明显限制,河北衡水、石家庄、邢台等地企业已经接到停产限产通知,随着阅兵前赶工项目的停工,水泥需求回落,市场将降至全年低点。价格方面,北京、天津主导企业水泥价格均有走跌,河北邢台为在停工前抢量,各品牌价格也有5~20元/吨的回落,其余各市价格暂稳;山西、内蒙古市场无改观,水泥价格底部徘徊。

  华东地区江西省新增工程需求不足,九江企业14~16日相继下调水泥价格20元/吨,15日赣州企业上调水泥价格20元/吨,实际成交价仅小幅上涨5~10元/吨,个别品牌仍有下跌;福建市场依然无起色,龙岩水泥、熟料库存处于高位,生产线轮流停产,价格底部运行,宁德地区水泥价格走低10~15元/吨左右,其余市场价格暂稳;山东市场需求延续低迷,库存随停窑结束后不断升高,省内企业为配合阅兵实施限产、停产,水泥需求将继续走弱,上周企业报价除极个别下跌外,总体尚稳;安徽沿江水泥价格低位走稳,熟料价格环比微幅下滑,皖江巢湖一带6~8日计划熟料限产30%,目前半数厂家停产,皖北受雨水影响,推涨计划未能实施,不过市场反馈企业有意于下一阶段推涨沿江熟料价格;上海受降雨影响,水泥销量下滑,价格低位徘徊;浙江金华、建德、衢州及丽水、温州等地企业于10~11日推涨水泥价格10元/吨,上周金华、衢州实行调涨,其余地区价格暂稳,宁波、杭州后半周因暴雨影响,短时水泥出货下滑明显;江苏南通企业为提升运营质量,于18日上调袋装低标水泥价格10元/吨,其余地区及散装水泥价格暂稳。

  中南地区河南省为配合大阅兵,部分地区进行排污控制,郑州一带部分工地及商混站陆续停工,需求减少,18~19日散装水泥价格走低5~10元/吨不等,市场主流价格为220~230元/吨,由于环境加强整治,需求受到一定程度的抑制,短期行情不乐观;广东需求变动不大,自珠三角、粤北熟料、水泥价格普涨后,仍有不少厂家实际未执行,未来或有回落,粤东一带库存处于高位,价格平稳运行;两湖、广西价格变动不大,广西南宁销量有所好转,企业有涨价意愿,但区域库存仍然较高,湖南天气较好,水泥需求略有上升,处于去库存阶段,价格未能进一步上行,湖北鄂东前期调涨袋装价格实际执行不佳,14日鄂东虽再次推涨,但上周需求恢复一般,库存仍然存压,价格运行平稳;海南天气好转,岛内需求上升,价格保持平稳。

  西南地区云南东部地区受降雨影响,需求下滑,15日德宏主要企业大幅下调32.5级水泥价格50元/吨,散装价格也下挫30元/吨,玉溪、昆明部分品牌水泥价格也有5~10元/吨的下滑;贵州天气较好,厂家出货稳定,企业报价低位平稳;川、渝天气晴好,水泥需求保持稳定,报价双双维持平稳;西藏普遍阵雨天气,但对产销影响不大,价格无明显变动。

  西北地区宁夏吴忠、中宁等地价格有所下滑,两地散装P.O42.5(R)出厂价基本在180~210元/吨左右;甘肃各地销量平平,兰州个别厂家有所走低,总体价格平稳;陕西逐渐进入多雨季节,需求无改观,关中行情表现平稳,陕北价格低位下探,榆林个别品牌价格走低20元/吨,其余地区暂稳;新疆、青海水泥企业报价平稳,新疆天气好转,阴雨天气基本结束,哈密厂家有调涨意愿,青海企业也有调涨意向,但销量环比持平,缺乏需求支撑。

  上周,全国共有4个省份的水泥价格出现上涨,其中浙江环比上涨0.85%,江苏、贵州、湖南涨幅微弱,环比涨幅不足0.2%;价格出现下跌的省份有15个,其中江西、北京、天津领跌,环比分别下跌1.76%、1.5%和1.38%,黑龙江、宁夏、辽宁环比也分别下跌0.95%、0.9%、0.84%,其余价格下跌省份环比跌幅不足0.5%。

图2:全国31省市上周P.O42.5散装水泥价格环比涨跌幅度(%)

数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  从价格出现变动的主要省份具体情况上看,浙江金华、衢州地区金圆、南方、双狮等企业推涨水泥价格10~15元/吨以提升盈利水平,杭州个别品牌也有小幅上调,不过杭州受暴雨影响,短期出货明显下滑;江西九江地区库存处于高位,周边低价水泥冲击下,14-16日南方、海螺等主导企业相继下调水泥出厂价格,幅度在20~25元/吨不等,赣州个别企业水泥价格也走低20元/吨;京、津阅兵前赶工项目临近停工,水泥需求回落,金隅、成强、大站等品牌水泥价格出现10~30元/吨的回落,由于项目停工、企业限产,京津冀地区水泥产销将降至全年冰点水平。

表2:价格出现变动的主要省份及品牌情况

数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥网行情数据中心

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Correlation

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price in Chongqing and Northeast Chongqing in the southwest region has risen by 30 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; the price in Changdu, the Xizang, has risen by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Sichuan and Yunnan maintain stable operation.

2024-11-15 17:34:42

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Chongqing in the southwest region is pushed up by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Zhaotong in Yunnan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Nanchong, Guang'an and Suining in Sichuan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Yibin and Luzhou is partially dropped.

2024-11-08 17:19:35

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, the market demand in southwest Sichuan and Chongqing continued to be weak, cement prices in some regions fell by 10-20 yuan/ton, and Yunnan-Guizhou region was mixed. The market demand continued to be weak due to the high temperature off-season in Sichuan and Chongqing, and some enterprises in Sichuan lowered the cement price to increase the shipment volume, while the original plan to raise the price in Chengdu was not implemented. The demand for cement in Chongqing is declining and the price is stable. Rainy weather in Yunnan is frequent, market demand is low, and prices in some areas have fallen after pushing up. Cement prices in Guizhou are generally stable.

2024-08-09 17:19:44

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the rebound in cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of central and southern Guangdong is not optimistic, and the Guangxi region is tepid. The market prices of the two lakes are basically stable, and there is a decline in some areas. Leading enterprises in Guangdong try to restore the price of cement, but under the influence of high temperature weather, the actual effect is not good. The rain weather in Guangxi is decreasing, the market demand is limited, the price is stable, and the local market is falling. Cement prices in Hubei are stable, and high temperatures affect demand. The Hunan area continues the high temperature, the demand is weak, the partial price falls. Affected by rainfall, the market demand in Henan is not good, and the price is stable.

2024-08-09 17:12:17

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand and sales in southwest China are sluggish, cement prices in Sichuan and Chongqing continue to fall, and some regions have fallen back to the level before the price increase in June. Some markets in the surrounding Yunnan-Guizhou region are still pushing up in the week, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-08-02 17:25:15

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the intensity of peak staggering has been increased, and the price of cement in Yunnan-Guizhou region has been raised by 30-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. Cement prices in some markets in Sichuan and Chongqing have dropped by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-07-26 16:56:03

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in Sichuan, Chongqing and parts of Yunnan fell by 20-50 yuan/ton this week, and Guizhou continued to push up by 60 yuan/ton. Whether it can be implemented remains to be seen.

2024-07-19 17:19:24

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the overall market demand and sales in southwest China are weak due to the off-season market and the impact of rainy weather. The price of cement in some markets of Sichuan, Chongqing and Yunnan has been loosened and declined, ranging from 20-50 yuan/ton.

2024-07-12 17:26:00

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cost of cement production has risen, and the price of cement in Dali and Lijiang areas of Yunnan has risen again by 30 yuan/ton. The market demand in Sichuan and Chongqing is weak, and local cement prices have fallen.

2024-06-28 17:06:31

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the price of cement in some markets in Sichuan and Chongqing has been raised by 50-130 yuan/ton, which is a large increase, and the actual implementation remains to be observed.

2024-06-14 20:06:50

On April 7, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) closed at 104.94 points, down 0.48% annually and 25.37% year-on-year.

2024-04-07 21:18:28

国内气温普遍回升,南方局部需求略有改善,但混凝土价格易跌难涨,实际成交继续稳中有降。12月25日至12月29日,全国混凝土价格指数报收124.79点,环比下跌0.26%,同比跌幅为11.58%……

2023-12-29 17:22:21

国内受强寒潮天气影响,降温幅度较大,多数区域施工活动减弱,混凝土价格稳中有降。12月18日至12月22日,全国混凝土价格指数报收125.11点,环比下跌0.12%,同比跌幅为11.38%……

2023-12-22 15:53:42

贵州水泥价格大幅上调60-100元/吨;亚泰集团拟以近10亿收购公司;四川计划2024年一季度每条熟料生产线错峰生产50-60天

2023-12-18 13:14:07

12月8日,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收113.7点,环比上涨0.15%,同比下跌23.72%。

2023-12-08 18:25:52

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,云南地区水泥企业用电负荷减少,库位有所下降,本周省内多数地区企业通知上调水泥价格30-50元/吨。重庆地区市场需求销量不足,主导企业陆续对主城市场下调水泥价格10-30元/吨不等。

2023-11-24 17:25:32

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收110.82点,环比上涨0.25%,同比下跌28.09%。

2023-11-12 12:39:47

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收106.18点,环比上涨0.15%,同比下跌30.71%……

2023-10-13 18:38:53

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收106.59点,环比上涨1.16%,同比下跌28.78%。

2023-10-01 15:08:35

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收105.37点,环比上涨0.36%,同比下跌28.05%。

2023-09-23 09:30:52

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收104.99点,环比下跌0.44%,同比下跌27.74%。

2023-09-15 18:28:51

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收108.03点,环比下跌1.55%,同比下跌26.06%。

2023-09-02 13:41:35

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收109.09点,环比下跌0.32%,同比下跌23.5%。

2023-08-19 09:10:56

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收109.83点,环比下跌0.86%,同比下跌23.11%。

2023-08-05 09:30:32

国内雨水天气影响仍较为普遍,局部出现水灾,下游施工受限,混凝土行情继续走弱。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收130.44点,环比下跌0.62%,同比跌幅为8.31%……

2023-08-04 17:19:52

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收112.87点,环比下跌2.15%,同比下跌21.1%。

2023-07-15 09:19:02

国内普遍处于高温多雨的淡季状态,下游施工强度偏低,混凝土出货量多有下滑,混凝土价格稳中有降。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收132.11点,环比下跌0.20%,同比跌幅为8.75%……

2023-07-14 17:17:52

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收115.35点,环比下跌1.92%,同比下跌19.71%。

2023-07-07 18:24:55

近期市场进入传统淡季,整体需求量弱势下滑,加之原材料支撑不足,混凝土价格稳中有跌。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收135.43点,环比下跌0.12%,同比跌幅为8.50%……

2023-06-16 16:46:24

本周全国多地受雨水天气以及中高考因素影响,施工进度放缓,混凝土需求呈现下滑趋势,局部价格仍有下调。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收135.59点,环比下跌0.46%,同比跌幅为8.59%……

2023-06-09 17:08:27

近期国内部分项目进入收尾阶段,新增项目跟进乏力,混凝土需求呈现下滑趋势,加之成本持续回落,企业报价仍然以跌为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收136.22点,环比下跌0.73%,同比跌幅为8.22%……

2023-06-02 16:40:14

本周北方局部需求略有增加,但整体仍处于偏低水平,而南方市场雨水偏多,混凝土需求稳中有降,市场价格以跌为主,本周全国混凝土价格指数报收137.22点,环比下跌0.36%,同比跌幅为7.86%……

2023-05-26 17:12:09

近期下游局部施工活动强度略有走弱,国内混凝土需求弱势运行,混凝土价格变动以跌为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收137.71点,环比下跌0.24%,同比跌幅为7.64%……

2023-05-19 16:49:59

五一节前国内局部雨水仍偏多,市场需求弱稳运行,加之原材料价格持续回落,混凝土企业报价持稳观望为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收138.73点,环比持平,同比下跌7.28%……

2023-04-28 15:39:38

近期国内局部仍有阴雨天气,混凝土市场需求整体呈现稳中有降的趋势,多数区域价格弱稳运行,东北地区跌幅较大。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收138.73点,环比下跌0.52%,同比下跌7.24%……

2023-04-21 16:56:47

近期上游原材料价格有所回落,加之多数区域需求恢复情况一般,混凝土价格走势稳中有降,尤其是东北局部降幅明显。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收139.46点,环比下跌0.61%,同比下跌6.78%……

2023-04-14 22:22:49

受降水增多以及清明假期影响,国内混凝土出货量多有小幅下滑,行情多以平稳运行为主,个别企业报价仍有小幅上调。上周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.31点,环比上涨0.02%,同比下跌6.61%……

2023-04-10 09:20:45

近期南方多地受雨水天气影响,需求略有下滑,国内价格多以稳定为主,局部在成本支撑下略有上调。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.28点,环比上涨0.06%,同比下跌6.75%……

2023-03-31 17:01:41

上周南方雨水偏多,混凝土需求恢复有所延缓,国内混凝土价格以稳为主,广东局部有所上调。上周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.20点,环比上涨0.11%,同比下跌7.04%……

2023-03-27 15:47:47

本周东北地区受季节性因素影响,项目开工率普遍不高,市场水泥需求恢复总体缓慢,厂家出货量较少。

2023-03-24 17:18:44

近期长三角、珠三角市场混凝土需求恢复情况较好,加之原材料价格持续上涨,行情稳中偏强运行。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.04点,环比上涨0.20%,同比下跌7.47%……

2023-03-17 17:18:22

近期国内天气晴好,气温明显回升,施工条件良好。广东以及长三角地区需求恢复较好,但受资金等因素影响,其余大部分区域需求恢复仍不及预期,混凝土价格上行动力不足。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收139.76点,环比上周持平,同比下跌7.77%……

2023-03-10 16:58:38

本周国内混凝土市场需求仍有回升,但整体增长放缓,加之原材料涨幅落实情况仍有待观察,混凝土企业报价稳定为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收139.76点,环比上周持平,同比下跌8.08%……

2023-03-03 17:01:09

近期南方天气好转,施工活跃度较前期有所提升,加之上游水泥价格出现推涨,局部混凝土企业存在跟涨情绪,但北方市场恢复仍较为缓慢,南北市场分化明显。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收139.76点,环比上涨0.01%,同比下跌8.89%……

2023-02-24 16:44:17

国内水泥企业涨价意愿较强,但目前市场需求仍处在恢复阶段,混凝土市场跟进缓慢,观望心态较为明显,实际报价有涨有跌。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收139.74点,环比下跌0.19%,同比下跌9.45%……

2023-02-17 17:21:54

本周北方大部分地区尚未复工,南方市场混凝土需求有所恢复,但出货量仍偏低,市场大体保持稳定为主,局部松动下行。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.01点,环比下跌0.06%,同比下跌9.27%……

2023-02-10 16:45:43

春节后国内大多数城市尚未完全复工,混凝土市场行情仍较为低迷,尽管局部上游水泥熟料价格有所调整,但混凝土企业报价暂时保持稳定为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.09点,相较于春节前持平,同比下跌9.39%……

2023-02-03 17:15:14

临近春节,下游多地赶工情况接近结束,混凝土出货量仍有明显下滑,国内混凝土价格延续下行趋势。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.09点,环比下跌0.38%,同比下跌10.53%……

2023-01-13 17:46:39

本周国内部分施工项目进度放缓,混凝土市场需求延续下滑趋势,多数地区混凝土价格保持稳定,局部松动下行。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收141.18点,环比下跌0.49%,同比下跌11.17%……

2022-12-16 17:15:11

Recently, the overall domestic demand has declined steadily, coupled with the weakening of local cost support, and the price of concrete has been stable and small. From November 14 to November 20, the national concrete price index closed at 112.35 points, down 0.13% annually and 10.08% year-on-year.