[原创]埃塞俄比亚水泥工业存巨大发展空间

2015-06-12 14:45:06

埃塞俄比亚是非洲较富裕的国家之一,但2014年水泥消费量为人均62千克,国内水泥企业产能利用率不足50%,即使产能完全发挥,全国水泥消费量为人均135千克,远低于国际水平。埃国已制定水泥工业发展战略,计划至2020年市场需求达1222万。未来水泥产能将由现在的1120万吨增至1715万吨,产能利用率也将升至75%及以上。

  据尼日利亚媒体报道,仅仅在Dangote水泥埃塞俄比亚新工厂Mugher点火生产一周后,公司就宣布计划产能增加一倍,项目升级工作将在2015年底开始。

  此举多少意味着埃塞俄比亚水泥工业的发展潜力。目前,埃塞俄比亚拥有约9000万人口。据世界水泥大全2015数据显示,在新的Dangote年产250万吨水泥厂上线以前,埃塞俄比亚的水泥年产能为970万吨。即使将Dangote新工厂包括在内,甚至产能100%完全发挥,全国水泥消费量为人均135千克。这属于很低的国际消费水平,因此新产能持续增长。近年来,埃塞俄比亚传闻且酝酿了大批项目,然而诸多有过消息的项目并未建设。

  工业部长Mebrahtu Meles提到在2015年4月Addis Ababa举行的第7届非洲水泥峰会上有18家从事水泥生产的企业。Meles说,国内已有水泥年产能1120万吨(含Dangote工厂在内),未来预计将增至1715万吨。然而,目前这些水泥厂的产能利用率在50%以下,合计年水泥产量仅547万吨。此产能利用率远低于60%及以上的国际水平。2014年水泥消费量为人均62千克。

  对于该事件,工信部透露,他们正在制定2015-2025年全国水泥工业发展战略。该战略将解决诸如本地生产的包装材料短缺、运输落后、生产成本高企及市场有限等问题。主要战略目标包括:促进水泥需求,通过混凝土道路建设提升水泥需求,至2020年需求达1222万;提升产能利用率,至2017年为75%,2025年为80%。

  在埃塞俄比亚,Dangote并不是唯一增加新产能的企业。Habesha 水泥在Addis Ababa附近年产140万吨的水泥厂将于2016年投产。Habesha水泥也具有国际视野,在该项目陷入财务困难后,南非水泥生产商PPC于2014年秋收购Habesha水泥50%的股权。

  新的Dangote工厂居先于国家新的水泥工业战略,但升级项目显示了市场和政府的信心。为实现战略目标,国家需要提升水泥企业的产能利用率及增加更多的产能。虽然先前的声明减弱,当前的达成目标依赖于Habesha水泥建设的水泥厂和其产能利用率从50%提升到至少75%。

  南非周报M&GAfrica描述了非洲基础设施的“种族隔离”,非洲58个国家中的44个仅共享25%的非洲基础设施。由于基础设施投资不足,导致非洲的建造成本较高,也由此造成水泥产能利用难以发挥。从GDP来看,埃塞俄比亚是非洲较富裕的国家之一,但也存在同样的问题。总体来看,要实现水泥工业的目标难度较大。

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