[周评]华东:江西水泥熟料价格现涨势

2015-05-18 10:58:01

上周华东地区水泥需求整体较弱,福建部分区域虽有好转,但水泥价格暂无明显波动。其余地区如浙江、江苏、安徽、上海、山东需求表现均显疲软,水泥价格跌跌不休。仅江西部分地区水泥价格有所上涨。

  上周华东地区水泥需求整体较弱,福建部分区域虽有好转,但水泥价格暂无明显波动。其余地区如浙江江苏安徽上海山东需求表现均显疲软,水泥价格跌跌不休。仅江西部分地区水泥价格有所上涨。

近期华东地区水泥价格指数走势

近期华东地区水泥价格指数走势

  江西、福建、山东:产销情况略有好转,江西区域水泥价格现涨势。11日起,赣西萍乡、宜春、新余、吉安等地南方、红狮、万年青、海螺等主导企业上调32.5级水泥出厂价20元/吨,42.5级水泥出厂价30元/吨,熟料报价也同步上涨,目前部分中小企业也有所调整。

  四月闽南天气晴好,水泥产销情况环比好转,中旬主要企业上调水泥价格15元/吨左右,但是鉴于需求支撑不足,部分厂家并未实际跟涨,近期部分涨后价格也有小幅回落表现。五月后,当地整体价格大稳小动,现福建龙岩大厂P.O42.5散装水泥外销出厂价为225-230元/吨,三明则在210-225元/吨。此外,本月沿海福州、宁德一带价格也无明显波动,仅福州长乐一海螺中转库因经销商变更,五月开始发货,拉低市场单价5元/吨。目前福州地区P.O42.5散装水泥主流出库价为275-280元/吨。

  近期阴雨影响,山东需求恢复略有趋弱表现。据了解,当地计划自6月15日至7月15日,省内所有旋窑企业统一开展夏季停窑错峰生产工作。

  江浙皖沪:需求依旧疲软,水泥价格跌跌不休。

  近期浙江市场需求仍显疲软,尤其房地产工程启动不足,加上近期海螺、南方水泥等主要企业下调影响,5月中旬以来浙江湖州、杭州、台州42.5级散装水泥出厂价走低10元/吨左右。目前来看,外围沿江水泥熟料价格继续下调,而金建兰地区主要企业对于市场价格调整暂未有统一意见,市场压力有增无减。

  五月以来江苏市场需求仍较低迷,区域产销矛盾增大,加之其余厂家下调影响。中旬以来苏南价格有继续走低表现,其中就主要厂家而言,无锡天山水泥、南京中国水泥厂42.5级散装水泥价格走低10元/吨,杨湾海螺、张家港海螺42.5级散装水泥挂牌价下调20-40元/吨。苏北方面,近期价格行情也显疲软,宿迁、淮安等地水泥价格下滑10-20元/吨,尤其42.5级散装水泥价格竞争较为激烈。目前淮安地区大厂P.O42.5散装水泥实际出厂价也仅在210元/吨左右。而近日山东地区限价稳市,苏北市场压力或略有缓解。

  近期安徽地区工程市场依旧疲软,阴雨频繁,加上皖南价格走低影响。近日皖北淮南、阜阳、亳州地区海螺、中联等主要厂家也相继下调不同规格水泥价格价格10-20元/吨,其余厂家不同幅度跟调。调后目前皖北水泥出厂价基本为P.C32.5袋装水泥价格215-255元/吨,P.O42.5散装水泥价格245-275元/吨。皖南方面,五月以来各地市场水泥价格纷纷下调,除滁州地区厂家低标价格大幅下调30-45元/吨外,各地42.5级水泥价格平均走低20元/吨。此外,由于苏南价格走低,近日巢湖地区部分大厂熟料价格再度微幅走低5元/吨,离岸价跌至175元/吨左右。截止目前,五月安徽地区自南而北完成一轮价格下调。

  四月上海地区工程逐步启动,市场需求环比小幅增长,但受库存压力区域价格继续走低。进入五月,需求方面维持四月势头,但价格下调空间缩小变动不大,沿江水泥熟料价格继续走低,上海市场下行势头并未减缓。

  总体来看,安徽地区水泥价格五月以来自南而北进行了一轮下调,尤其42.5级散泥价格平均下浮20元/吨。且不仅安徽,近期华东地区江浙沪皖行情也是跌跌不休的趋势。目前来看,海螺基本全面下调,南方水泥则局部市场不同阶段跟降,其余厂家也有不同幅度调整。未来短期华东市场形势严峻,受梅雨季节及六月高考等因素影响,需求还将下滑。当前市场价格虽未达到历史最低点,但需求低迷程度接近年中最低点,近期价格逆市上调可能极小,若要实现大幅回涨,金九银十或可期待。

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Correlation

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