Wind data show that as of May 13, the total amount of local bonds issued this year has broken through the 4 trillion yuan barrier, reaching 4035.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8% compared with 3752 billion yuan in the same period in 2025.
This year's Report on the Work of the Government proposes to arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, focusing on supporting the construction of major projects, replacing implicit debts and digesting government arrears. "The rhythm is obviously forward and forward, which reflects the clear orientation of the more active fiscal policy of" early development and quick use ". Song Xiangqing, vice president of China Business Economics Association, commented.
For the cement industry, the figure of 4.4 trillion yuan has its own stimulant effect-infrastructure has always been the first engine of cement demand, and large-scale issuance of special bonds seems to indicate that a new round of cement demand is on the way. But before getting excited, it is necessary to see the real whereabouts of the money.
Money is divided into three ways, only one of the three major uses of 4.4 trillion yuan of cement
special bonds, "replacement of implicit debt" and "digestion of government arrears", which are basically unrelated to the physical demand for cement. The essence of
replacing implicit debt is to replace high-interest short-term debt with low-interest long-term bonds, and to circulate funds in the financial system without forming new construction projects. Digesting government arrears solves the problem of local government's historical arrears to enterprises, which improves the balance sheet and cash flow after entering enterprise accounts, and will not directly generate new demand for cement. The only way to
really stimulate cement consumption is to "support the construction of major projects". Major projects are divided into two categories: one is traditional infrastructure (highway, railway, water conservancy, etc.), with high cement density and direct pull; the other is new infrastructure (5G base station, data center, etc.), with low cement consumption. In the actual allocation of special debt funds, the proportion of major projects and the proportion of traditional infrastructure are the figures that the cement industry should really care about. Of the 4 trillion yuan that has been issued since the
beginning of the year, Wind's statistics are not complete, but a reference indicator is that of the 6.2 trillion yuan of local bonds issued in 2025, the scale marked as "new special bonds" (mainly for project construction) is about 3.9 trillion yuan, accounting for less than 63%. According to this calculation, of the 4.4 trillion yuan of special debt in 2026, the part that can form physical workload is between 2.5 trillion and 2.8 trillion yuan, while the rest of the funds are concentrated in the areas of debt conversion and debt clearance.
Demand funnel effect: how far
is it from "special debt" to "cement consumption"? Even if the funds fall to the level of infrastructure projects, they have to go through several layers of "funnel" filtration before reaching cement enterprises.
The first level is the project structure. At present, structural changes in infrastructure investment are taking place: the growth rate of traditional cement high-consumption projects such as highways and railways has slowed down, while the proportion of new infrastructure projects such as water conservancy, new energy and urban renewal has increased. Although cement is also used in water conservancy projects, the consumption of cement per unit investment is significantly lower than that of highways; the consumption of cement for photovoltaic and wind power bases is more limited.
The second layer is the construction rhythm. When special debt funds are allocated to project accounts, there is usually a lag of 3 to 6 months from the formation of physical workload. In the first four months of this year, the rhythm of bond issuance is ahead, and the corresponding construction peak will be in the third quarter at the earliest, so the demand for cement in the first half of this year is extremely limited.
The third layer is regional mismatch. There is no one-to-one correspondence between the allocation of local special debt and the demand for cement. The large economic provinces in the east have a large amount of special debt and many projects; the production capacity in the central and western regions is in demand, but the scale of special debt and the density of projects are far less than those in the east. This structural mismatch between regions makes the growth of special debt at the national level significantly different from the pulling effect on local markets.
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