On January 23, Asia Cement issued a performance forecast for 2025, with a net profit of about 85.6 million yuan, compared with a loss of 263.7 million yuan in the same period last year. Prior to this, on January 14, Jinyu Jidong issued a 2025 annual performance forecast, predicting a net return of 180 million yuan to 260 million yuan, a loss of 991 million yuan last year, also turning losses into profits.
In 2025, the total profit of the domestic cement industry recovered significantly.
According to the forecast of China Cement Network, the total profit of pure cement business in domestic cement industry in 2025 will be about 18-20 billion yuan (excluding non-cement business such as aggregates and overseas cement profits), which will increase by 12.5% -25% compared with 2024. In 2025, the total profit of the whole cement industry will be 28-30 billion yuan.
However, contrary to the bright performance of listed companies and the apparent recovery of industry profits, in 2025, the domestic cement industry generally felt cold.
1. The truth about profit recovery. In 2025, the recovery of the profit of the cement industry is mainly due to the high price at the beginning of the year, coupled with the decline in coal costs, which has little to do with the supply and demand issues that directly affect the development trend of the industry. According to the data of
China Cement Network, the price of cement in early 2025 is about 50 yuan/ton higher than that in the same period in previous years. In terms of coal price, in the first half of 2025, the overall price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, and the production cost pressure of cement enterprises was reduced. By the end of June, the average spot price of thermal coal was 625 yuan/ton, down 27.2% from the same period last year.
From the perspective of enterprise performance, Tianshan shares said in the semi-annual report that the cost-side operating cost was 29.310 billion yuan, down 16.71% from the previous year, and the cost was 7.371 billion yuan, down 9.76% from the previous year.
In terms of total industry profits, China Cement Network data show that the total profit of the cement industry in the first half of 2025 is about 13-14 billion yuan, compared with a loss of 1.1 billion yuan in the same period in previous years.
2, cement price trend "all the way down", the industry ushered in the "worst peak season". Although the price was higher at the beginning of the year, the domestic cement price trend in 2025 almost showed a downward trend, until the fourth quarter of the national market still pushed up the fatigue, which can be called the "worst peak season" of the cement industry for many years. The national cement price index of
China Cement Network fell from a high of 388.71 at the beginning of the year to 303.34 at the end of the year, down 85.37 points. At the end of the year, the average price of cement in China dropped by about 85 yuan/ton compared with the high point at the beginning of the year.
3. The contradiction between supply and demand is still severe, and the supplementary production behavior aggravates the industry's worries. On the demand side, the cement market demand is still in the downward channel, the lowest level since 2010. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2025, the national cement output was 1.693 billion tons, with a year-on-year decline of 6.9%. The total domestic demand for cement fell below 1.7 billion tons, and the downward trend of future demand is difficult to resist. It is expected that by 2030, it will be reduced to 1.0-1.2 billion tons. The contradiction between supply and demand will continue to intensify, and a large number of cement enterprises will withdraw from the market. On
the supply side, although the industry has accelerated the replenishment of production capacity and nominally digested some backward production capacity, it is actually difficult to alleviate the excess pressure, and even because of various problems in the process of replenishment, the problem of excess capacity in the regional market has been aggravated, and the original market structure has been broken, which has aggravated the industry's worries about the market in 2026.
4. The effect of off-peak production continued to decrease, further undermining the confidence of the industry. It has been ten years since the implementation of off-peak production in the domestic cement industry, which has played an important role in alleviating the imbalance between supply and demand. However, the effect of off-peak production in 2025 is continuing to decline.
In 2025, the failure of off-peak production has been quite obvious, and cement prices around the country continue to rise, but it is difficult to implement. As the "traditional peak season" in the three or four quarters, it has become the low point of the whole year's price. Some markets also have news from time to time, and the implementation of peak staggering production is becoming more and more difficult. The core foundation for the implementation
of off-peak production lies in the relatively good market demand. Once demand continues to decline sharply, it is necessary to continuously extend the number of off-peak days, and even so, due to poor demand, price stability is still very difficult, and off-peak production is gradually losing its basis for effective implementation.
Generally speaking, the recovery of industry benefits in 2025 is due to the high price starting point at the beginning of the year and the decline in coal costs. This profit improvement is more "cost dividend" than "demand dividend", and its foundation is extremely fragile. At the same time, the contradiction between supply and demand, which has a deep impact on the industry situation, is intensifying, which leads to many challenges, such as the weakening of peak staggering production effect and the change of market competition pattern.
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