Liaoning cement market has recently seen a price rebound signal. Early prices continued to decline, enterprises in the province generally suffered deep losses, and cost pressures pushed leading enterprises to form a synergistic price increase-the ex-factory price was raised by 50 yuan/ton from May 20. However, the current regional demand is still light, whether this round of substantial price increases can be effectively landed, there is still greater uncertainty, the market has entered a game deadlock of "strong willingness to raise prices, weak demand support".
Cost-driven, the bottom triggers the price increase window
. The direct reason for this round of price increase is that the cement price in Liaoning has experienced a continuous decline in the early stage, the loss of enterprises has continued to expand, and the demand for profit repair has become the strongest driving force for the collective voice of leading enterprises in the province. The single price increase of 50 yuan/ton is relatively large, which reflects the urgent mentality of enterprises on the one hand, and on the other hand, it also has the meaning of "shouting high and rising low" and "stopping falling by rising", which reflects the lack of confidence of enterprises in raising prices.
Demand is light, and the implementation rate is facing discount
constraints. The core variable of this round of price increase is the continued weakness of the demand side. The new construction of real estate in Northeast China continues to be depressed, the pace of capital arrival for infrastructure projects is slow, the characteristics of construction peak season are not obvious, the downstream purchasers are in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the tolerance for substantial price increases is limited. In the absence of obvious active contraction on the supply side, the chips in the hands of enterprises mainly come from the will of synergy, rather than strong support of supply and demand fundamentals. Even if this round of price increases is implemented, it may also be discounted.
Next, whether the construction of key projects can be speeded up to drive the cement consumption to rise, whether the enterprises in the whole province can maintain the price discipline and avoid individual enterprises taking the lead in breaking the price is the key to the stability of the market. If demand continues to fail to improve and the will of enterprises is loosened, there is a risk of price increase. This round of price increase window has been opened, but the actual implementation effect remains to be observed, the real recovery of Liaoning market still needs to wait for the substantial improvement of the demand side.
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