January 15, Applying Malthus's theory to the economic field means that the scale of the industry is getting bigger and bigger, the number of enterprises is getting larger and larger, and the production capacity is getting higher and higher, but the growth rate of resources and markets is not so fast, so it is more and more difficult for enterprises to operate. Eventually , the bodies were scattered and bleeding . Last year, under the call of anti-involution, the photovoltaic industry is in the predicament of the "First World War". Why World War I? The two sides invested huge forces and repeatedly seesawed on the narrow front. The commander of World War I, whose tactical thinking was still in the 19th century, believed in the tactics of infantry phalanx and cavalry charge. However, the fruits of the industrial revolution have been translated into the battlefield. The Maxim machine gun can pour hundreds of bullets every minute, bringing down whole rows of soldiers. The heavy artillery can also plough up the earth, turning flesh and blood into powder. Two battles are particularly typical: one is the Battle of Verdun. In February 1916, Germany and France committed millions of troops and suffered nearly a million casualties in less than a year. In the end, the battle line was hardly moved and millions of lives were lost for nothing. The other was the Battle of the Somme. Also in June 1916, after a long period of preparation, the Anglo-French Allied Forces launched a fierce attack on the German Army in the Somme River area, with nearly 60,000 casualties on the first day. The whole campaign lasted for five months, and the two sides lost more than one million yuan in total, in exchange for only a few kilometers of advance. Countless blood and resources, but can not be exchanged for the realization of any strategic objectives, this sad charge and trench warfare, there is no winner. Look at today's photovoltaic and energy storage industries: although we have passed the "arms race" stage of crazy expansion of production capacity, the price war is still "bayonet red", and the gross profit margin is as thin as a cicada's wing, or even negative-just like the emperor's new clothes. Does it look like a soldier fighting for every inch of position in a muddy trench? This is not a "struggle for innovation" or "struggle for value", but a pure "struggle for blood" - to see whose cash flow is thicker, whose endurance is stronger, and who can survive to the end . This kind of "fighting for blood" is a tactic in the short run and a strategic disaster in the long run. It makes the whole industry fall into the " prisoner's dilemma ": it is obvious that cooperation can be win-win, but they choose to fight each other; it is obvious that they can have an open and honest discussion, but they have to set a trap and make a stumbling block . It consumes not only the profits of enterprises, but also the health of the industry, the confidence of investment and the future of sustainable development. When the whole industry chain is struggling to "survive", what spare power do we have to climb the peak of the next generation of technology? To open up truly valuable global markets? To build a stable and predictable supply chain system? How did the First World War finally end? This gives us photovoltaic people a crucial revelation: only by jumping out of the "trench" can we win the war. Therefore, we must shift from the "trench thinking of World War I" to the "win-win thinking for the future." First, we must shift from the "arms race" to the "extension development.". The real moat is not capacity scale, nor book cash, but technological innovation, product differentiation, brand value, new business and new growth curve. Instead of trying to occupy a position in the crowded track, it is better to go farther and broader to the market, to find new business opportunities, to open up "new continents, new markets", to find "the sea of stars". This is not only a response to the industry's anti-involution call, but also a "big killer" to break through the current deadlock. Second, from "zero-sum game" to "symbiotic ecology". The upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain is a community of destiny, not a relationship between colonization and colonization. Vertical integration is only effective when the industry is in short supply. If we judge that in the next 5 to 10 years, in most parts of the world and in most products, surplus will become the norm , then specialization is the better choice . Atlas has always adopted an inverted pyramid hybrid supply chain model. Stable price expectations, reasonable profit distribution and deep collaborative innovation can make the giant ship more stable and far-reaching than squeezing each other and transferring risks. Atlas is also one of the first companies in the industry to point out the problem of involution. We support industry self-discipline and anti-involution policies, but these policies should be the key to help us break the dilemma of involution, not the open plan to grab the remaining part of the profits in the industrial chain. With the gradual development of photovoltaic industry in the past 20 years, it has become a business card made in China. The industry chain should not be a vicious competition of "zero-sum game", but should cooperate with each other, compete benignly and respect the spirit of contract, so as to create a high-quality industry symbiotic ecology. Third, entrepreneurs need "strategic determination" and "retreat wisdom". In World War I, wise commanders knew how to preserve effective strength under adverse circumstances. I spent my primary school in the Cultural Revolution. At that time, the biggest entertainment on weekends was watching open-air movies in the school playground in summer. The films that never move are the "old three wars": "Mine War", "Tunnel War" and "North and South War". There is a classic line in "North and South War", "We are striding back today for the sake of striding forward tomorrow." In the overcrowded sector of the industry, active adjustment, rational contraction, and even graceful turnaround are not failures, but highly responsible to shareholders, employees, and the industry. This also requires courage and foresight to transcend immediate gains and losses. Some people will say, General Manager Qu, you always tell others to retreat, why don't you retreat yourself? The photovoltaic industry should not be a "dark forest", let alone a "Verdun meat grinder". We are carrying the " If there is no retreat, how can we achieve anti-involution? For example, according to recent online media reports, some photovoltaic companies intend to work overtime during the Spring Festival to grab the wave before the export tax rebate on April 1. I am here to solemnly tell you: Atlas does not rob, in addition to the single crystal workshop that can not stop the furnace, the employees of other factories have a holiday during the Spring Festival. May we all be the thinkers and actors who end the "First World War of the Photovoltaic Industry" and pull our feet out of the quagmire of the war of attrition.
浙公网安备33010802003254号