The Same Downhill Road, Two Ways to Fall: Which Is More Painful, Cement or Commercial Mix?

2026-09-08 15:46:37

The cement industry is waiting for the possibility of supply-side liquidation and "re-pricing" in the general loss, while the commercial mixed industry is speeding up shuffling in the shrinking income and the deterioration of repayment. Who can survive this round depends no longer on production capacity, but on capital and account books.

In the first half

of 2026, the two upstream and downstream industries of cement and commercial concrete handed in the second half of the same answer sheet almost at the same time-both volume and price fell and profits collapsed. But put the two cement net reports side by side, and we can see that in this round of downward, their respective "pain methods" are not exactly the same. (For details, please refer to "Comparative Analysis on the Operation and Development of Commercial Mixed Business of Listed Companies in the First Half of 2026" and " Analysis on the Operation of Cement Market in the First Half of 2026 and Outlook for the Future Market")

Profit: Loss of the whole industry. Business mix "carry down" but not resist the fall. In terms of cement, "the whole industry is in a loss predicament". Coal prices fluctuated and rose, forming a scissors gap with cement prices all the way down, squeezing both the cost side and the income side, and directly breaking through the break-even line of industry profits. Commercial mixed plate seems to be slightly better, but the essence is "boiled frog in warm water": the total commercial mixed income of 23 listed companies is 24.928 billion yuan, down 17.43% year-on-year, an increase of nearly 11 percentage points over the same period in 2025. What is more difficult is the repayment-the proportion of accounts receivable to revenue and the actual days of repayment of commercial mixed listed companies are still increasing, and the risk of credit impairment in the industry is more prominent. The profits of commercial mixing are being swallowed up a little bit by "selling out and not getting back".

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only demand: real estate and infrastructure double negative, drag is common. Behind the cement and commercial mix is the same demand curve: the decline in real estate investment has expanded, infrastructure investment has turned negative, and the two core downstream have stalled at the same time. The national cement output decreased by 8% year-on-year, the lowest in the same period in the past 17 years. As the "downstream processing link" of cement, the demand of commercial mixing is directly under pressure, which leads to the tragic differentiation of nearly 80% of enterprises'income declining, Zhixin Group plunging 86.47% and Shandong Road and Bridge plunging 41%.

Prices: all down, but the business mix more than a "return discount.". The price of cement has been declining all the way, which is caused by the imbalance between supply and demand; the commercial mix is superimposed with the chronic illness of weak bargaining power in the industrial chain-as a link sandwiched between the cement plant and the construction site, the volume and price are under pressure at both ends, and it also bears the account period of advance capital all the year round. It is one thing for the price to fall, but it is another thing for the price to fall and the money can not be recovered. The

real point of view is differentiation and concentration. There are structural bright colors hidden in the pessimistic industry: the mixed business income of the top five enterprises totaled 21.701 billion yuan, accounting for 87.05% of the total of 23 listed companies, accounting for a further increase of about 0.59 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the concentration is still rising. What is more interesting is the contrarian: in the context of the decline in the income of nearly 80% of enterprises, the mixed income of Conch Cement still increased by 1.79%, and Shanshui Cement increased by 26.37% against the trend. Yunnan Jiantou Concrete and Shangfeng Materials also maintained positive growth. While most enterprises are still losing ground in the contraction of demand, the leading enterprises with scale and regional advantages are already using their share to rearrange their seats for the next cycle. When the

two reports are read together, there is only one conclusion: this is a long-term downward trend on the demand side, not a short-term price fluctuation. The cement industry is waiting for the possibility of supply-side liquidation and "re-pricing" in the general loss, while the commercial mixed industry is speeding up shuffling in the shrinking income and the deterioration of repayment. Who can survive this round depends no longer on production capacity, but on capital and account books.

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Correlation

The cement industry is waiting for the possibility of supply-side liquidation and "re-pricing" in the general loss, while the commercial mixed industry is speeding up shuffling in the shrinking income and the deterioration of repayment. Who can survive this round depends no longer on production capacity, but on capital and account books.

2026-09-08 15:46:37

The cement industry is waiting for the possibility of supply-side liquidation and "re-pricing" in the general loss, while the commercial mixed industry is speeding up shuffling in the shrinking income and the deterioration of repayment. Who can survive this round depends no longer on production capacity, but on capital and account books.