Since 2026, under the dual suppression of weak demand and overcapacity in the domestic cement industry, the performance of listed companies in the first quarter has been under overall pressure, and the wave of price increases in mid-March has quickly returned to silence. According to the big data of China Cement Network, as of May Day, the domestic cement price index has been at its lowest point this year.
As of the beginning of May, the first quarterly reports of major cement listed companies in A-share and Hong Kong stocks ( except Tianrui Cement ) were disclosed. According to the 18 companies with public data, the total operating income is about 53.594 billion yuan, and the total net profit loss attributable to the parent company is about 1.452 billion yuan. The industry profit situation is extremely grim: 6 companies are profitable, 12 companies are losing money, and the industry loss pattern is basically finalized.
Overall, the profits of cement listed companies in the first quarter were highly concentrated, with the net profits of Conch Cement (1.468 billion) and Huaxin Building Materials (630 million) totaling more than 2.1 billion yuan, far ahead of other enterprises. At the same time, there is a wide range of losses, 12 of the 18 enterprises are losing money, Shanshui Cement (-716 million) and Tianshan Material (-1.495 billion) have the largest losses, and Jinyu Jidong and Asia Cement have turned from profit to loss. In addition, revenue almost all negative growth, in addition to Huaxin building materials, Xizang Tianlu, Qingsong Jianhua and other enterprises, the vast majority of enterprises revenue fell year-on-year, Ningxia building materials fell the largest (-47.44%), Shanshui cement, Tianshan materials fell more than 27%.
Cement listed companies have almost gathered the best enterprises in the cement industry, and the listed companies have fallen into overall losses, indicating that the current situation of the cement industry is worrying and the survival of enterprises in the industry is difficult.
Capacity compliance production is difficult to save the current market
, China Cement Network big data show that from the beginning of this year to early March, domestic cement prices are in an overall stable state. In mid-March, enterprises in the industry began to push up cement prices on a large scale, but now the average domestic cement price has fallen below the level before the price increase. The rapid narrowing of the traditional peak season window is a direct reflection of the continuous weakening of demand support.
In view of the current situation, some enterprises in the industry hope to increase the intensity of peak staggering and compress the supply side in order to promote the cement market warming up, but this original intention may be difficult to achieve.
First, the "disappearance" of the traditional peak season is due to the increasing difficulty of market coordination. On the one hand, in mid-March, domestic cement prices rose in a wide range, and soon fell back rapidly and below the original level; On the other hand, the core markets in China, including Henan, the market along the Yangtze River, the Pearl River Delta, the central region and so on, are not smooth in the process of pushing up, often just after the price rises, the price falls rapidly, which just shows that the actual binding force of the current supply-side synergy is declining, and the realistic impulse of enterprises to catch up with the share is intensifying, especially in the background that many enterprises are losing money and eager to withdraw cash.
Second, the demand side does not match the bottom conditions of the price rebound. New real estate construction continued to grow negatively, capital construction funds were in place slowly, and the willingness of terminal construction was low. Without substantial improvement on the demand side, any price rebound brought about by supply constraints will be a flash in the pan.
Third, "willingness to repair profits" is not equal to "ability to repair profits". In the overcapacity market, whoever reduces production first will lose market share first, which is a typical prisoner's dilemma. It is easy to collectively call out "repair willingness", but when it comes to behavior, the actual choice of most enterprises is still to reduce prices and maintain cash flow.
Fourth, demand continues to decline, and capacity compliance production is difficult to solve the problem of overcapacity. On the one hand, the domestic demand for cement continued to decline, with the cement output falling by 7.1% in the first quarter of this year, including a sharp fall of 21% in March; on the other hand, during the implementation of compliance supplementary production, there were cross-regional transfer of production capacity, revival of zombie production capacity, replacement of "large construction of small" production capacity and substantial increase in production capacity, which had little effect on resolving overcapacity. The bottom of the
industry has not yet appeared, and capacity reduction is the only way out
. From the current fundamentals, the real stabilization of cement prices still needs at least one of the following two conditions to be established: First, there is a substantial turning point on the demand side, including the stabilization of new real estate construction or the substantial acceleration of the physical volume of infrastructure projects; The two is to realize the real withdrawal of production capacity on the supply side, rather than through replacement. At present, neither of them appears. What needs to be
more vigilant is that the spread of pessimism in the industry as a whole may itself form a new "lock-in" situation. When enterprises generally expect prices to continue to decline, they often do not withdraw voluntarily, nor really reduce production, but rely on inertia to maintain their share, which makes the bottom of the industry longer and deeper than expected. The
real bottom of the price will not be called out by synergy, but can only be built by substantial clearance of production capacity. It is suggested that the regulatory authorities should promote the over-production identification mechanism based on the total annual output, and allow the transfer of clinker from other provinces to accelerate the natural withdrawal of inefficient production capacity by means of policies, so as to form a real rebalancing of supply and demand. In the first quarter
of 2026, there is no dispute about the fundamentals of "falling volume and price, overall pressure on profits" in the cement industry, and the low price of cement is the most direct judgment of the market on the contradiction between supply and demand. De-capacity is not a choice question waiting for the opportunity, but an imminent survival question.
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