The domestic cement industry has implemented peak-shifting production for ten years, from the winter peak-shifting in 15 provinces in the north to the whole country, and even the Xizang has been included in the peak-shifting system; the time dimension is extended to the whole year, not only covering the heating season, busy farming season, holidays and other traditional periods, but also following the peak-shifting requirements in peacetime.
Undoubtedly, under the background of serious overcapacity in the cement industry, peak staggering production effectively reduces the market supply, which plays an important role in effectively alleviating the pressure of imbalance between supply and demand, stabilizing the cement market and improving the efficiency of the industry.
Especially in the golden period of the industry from 2016 to 2022, peak staggering production provides a key support for the cement industry to achieve high profits. Even after 2023, the domestic cement market demand has entered a downward cycle, the industry situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse, the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent, and peak staggering production has always been the biggest reliance for the industry to try to stabilize the market situation.
However, as the saying goes, "success is also Xiao He, failure is also Xiao He". The development of things always has two sides, especially the off-peak production, which is not only the biggest reliance of the cement industry, but also the biggest risk of the cement industry.
1. Long-term reliance on off-peak production to limit supply has created the prosperity of "water injection" for the cement industry. Taking the highest profit in history in 2019 as an example, the total profit of the industry in that year was 186.7 billion yuan, the total revenue was 10126 500 million yuan, and the profit margin was as high as 18.44%, which was unique in the industrial field. Taking steel with high "building material attribute" as an example, the profit of steel industry in 2019 is basically the same as that of cement industry, which is 188.994 billion yuan, but the revenue is as high as 4.27 trillion yuan, and the profit margin is only 4.43%, which is 14 percentage points lower than that of cement industry.
High profits not only attract a large number of social capital to enter, but also increase the scale and enthusiasm of capacity investment in the industry. As a result, the domestic cement clinker production capacity once increased instead of decreasing, which continued to aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.
2. Staggered peak production objectively delayed the clearance process of backward production capacity. Thanks to the "prosperity" brought about by peak staggering production, in those years, almost as long as there was a line, they could "lie down and make money", which led to the same economic benefits of backward production capacity, which not only weakened the motive force of withdrawal, but also caused backward enterprises to reserve a large amount of funds, so that some of the relatively backward production capacity "ammunition" reserves were sufficient. Nowadays, "the tail is too big to drop".
In addition, some backward production capacity, with the help of profits in previous years, upgraded the production line to achieve "shotgun replacement", which actually aggravated the problem of overcapacity and laid the groundwork for the fierce price war in the future.
3. Staggered production solidifies the path dependence of the industry and neglects the root cause of overcapacity. Off-peak production has brought a false impression to some enterprises in the industry, it seems that as long as we insist on off-peak production, we can ignore the market rules and maintain industry profits.
When the industry is accustomed to balancing the market through supply regulation, it gradually loses the motive force to actively solve the root cause of overcapacity, even selectively avoids the core contradictions such as imbalance between supply and demand, and is unwilling to promote the substantive work of capacity removal. Once the role of off-peak production is weakened or ineffective, the impact on the cement industry will be unprecedented cruel.
Today, the reliance on off-peak production is on the verge of collapse. The core foundation for the implementation
of off-peak production lies in the relatively good market demand. Through appropriate kiln shutdown and production restriction, the superior enterprises can obtain better profits, the market competition and cooperation relationship is relatively strong, and the implementation of peak staggering production is relatively easy. Once the demand continues to decline sharply, it is necessary to continuously extend the number of off-peak days, and even so, due to poor demand, price stability is still very difficult, coupled with the expected sharp decline in cement demand in the future, the dominant enterprises focus on market share, under the influence of multiple factors, off-peak production will gradually lose its basis for effective implementation.
In 2025, the failure of off-peak production has been quite obvious, cement prices around the country continue to push up, but it is difficult to implement, as the "traditional peak season" in the third and fourth quarters, has become the low price of the whole year. Some domestic markets also have news from time to time, and the implementation of peak staggering production is becoming more and more difficult.
In 2026, with the decline of demand, the effect of peak staggering production is further weakened, the weaker the effect, the more difficult the implementation, and after the completion of production capacity, the inherent pattern of the cement industry formed over the years has been changed. The internal thinking of the industry is confused , the mutual trust of enterprises is reduced, the difficulty of competition and cooperation is increased, and the market competition will become more intense.
2026 may be the worst and most difficult year for the cement industry to implement peak staggering production, and it may also be the year when the cement industry begins to break the superstition of "peak staggering production".
So, in the past ten years, in the face of the growing contradiction between supply and demand, the cement industry has chosen to "block but not dredge", and now it is about to face the industry risk of years of off-peak production backlog, are you really ready?
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