In 2026, the largest "urban renewal project" in the world and even in human history was officially launched. The Outline of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan clearly put forward the idea of "promoting urban renewal with high quality", and the National Development and Reform Commission immediately announced that at least 15 trillion yuan could be invested in urban renewal in the next five years.
At the same time, the cement industry has been in the quagmire of overcapacity for many years. In 2025, the national cement output fell below 1.7 billion tons and continued to decline by 6.9%. The utilization rate of clinker production capacity in many provinces was only about 50%, and even less than 40% in some provinces and cities. The
severe supply and demand situation brings fierce market competition. In 2025, the price of domestic cement declined almost all the way throughout the year, with the average price at the end of the year falling by about 100 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the year, and the price of cement in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other popular regions entering the "one word". Is the
15 trillion yuan investment in urban renewal the "key to breaking the situation" of the cement industry or the "distant water is difficult to quench the present thirst"? How can cement enterprises seize this historical opportunity and reshape the competition pattern in the new wave of urban construction? Over
capacity: the historical dilemma
of the cement industry The root cause of the overcapacity of the cement industry lies in the large-scale capacity investment generated by the rapid urbanization and the real estate boom in the historical period. The deep contradictions with the current downward demand:
1. Shrinking demand side: the real estate market has been deeply adjusted, and the investment in real estate development has continued to grow negatively, which has been the "main engine" driving the demand for cement for a long time. Although the investment in infrastructure has been supported by policies, the growth rate has slowed down and the marginal effect has decreased.
2. Supply-side rigidity: restricted by local financial dependence, employment pressure and other factors, the exit mechanism of backward production capacity is not smooth, and "zombie production capacity" occupies market space for a long time.
3. Anomie of competition order: Overcapacity forced enterprises to exchange price for quantity, and low price became more and more intense, which further disrupted the market order.
In 2025, the six departments jointly issued the Work Plan for Steady Growth of Building Materials Industry (2025-2026), which clearly promotes the reduction of about 10% of low-efficiency clinker production capacity; "anti-involution" capacity integration has become the consensus of the industry. However, it is difficult to fundamentally change the industry dilemma only by supply-side contraction-the ballast stone on the demand side is also the key variable to determine the fate of the industry. The quantitative target of urban renewal in the 15th Five-Year Plan covers many dimensions, which
helps cement demand change from "free fall" to "controlled downward"
. See the following table for details:
Pulling mechanism for cement: Three paths
Path 1: Underground pipe network-the most direct cement consumption scenario
The renovation of the 770,000 km pipe network. It covers the whole process of trench excavation, pipeline laying, trench backfilling and pavement repair, and each link requires a large amount of cement. With reference to the construction of municipal pipeline network in typical cities, the cement consumption per kilometer of pipeline network reconstruction project is calculated as 400-600 tons. According to the calculation of 770000 kilometers, only the transformation of underground pipeline network in five years can theoretically increase the demand for cement by about 300 million to 460 million tons, which will significantly increase the intensity of cement consumption.
Path 2: Renovation of old residential areas and dilapidated houses-Renovation of 115,000 old residential areas and 500,000 dilapidated houses with wide coverage and stable demand
. It involves building reinforcement, exterior wall repair, roof renovation, hardening of internal roads in residential areas, laying of underground rain and sewage diversion pipe network and other construction contents, and has the following characteristics:
1. Wide coverage: 115,000 residential areas are distributed in large, medium and small cities across the country, and the construction period is long;
2. Strong demand stability: Different from the "pulse" demand of real estate development, the transformation of old residential areas forms continuous, decentralized and predictable cement consumption, which helps to smooth the cyclical fluctuations of the industry;
3. Standard upgrading drive: The cement consumption of high-standard reconstruction projects such as the installation of elevator foundation and the construction of underground parking lot is far more than that of foundation reconstruction.
Path 3: Block and Factory Renewal-Multiplier Effect
of Continuous Development The transformation of 1500 old blocks and factories is an important symbol of urban renewal from "single renovation" to "continuous renewal". This kind of project is usually accompanied by large-scale civil construction such as foundation treatment, underground space development, municipal road reconstruction, etc. The cement consumption of a single project is much higher than that of the old residential area renovation, and often drives the synchronous renewal of the surrounding supporting facilities, forming an obvious multiplier effect. The pull of
urban renewal on cement demand is a "slow-release shot in the arm" rather than replicating the "pulse outbreak" of the real estate era. The investment distribution of 15 trillion yuan has gradually landed in five years, with an average annual landing of about 3 trillion yuan, which can offset part of the demand gap caused by the downturn of real estate, but it is difficult to fill it completely. The
15 trillion investment in urban renewal will not bring the cement industry back to the era of high-speed growth, but it can and is changing the coordinate system of the industry: from "free fall" to "supported downward", from "volume involution" to "structural opportunities", from "single market" to the two-wheel drive of "domestic urban renewal + overseas increment". As far
as cement enterprises are concerned, this is a window period of transformation that requires strategic determination-not to lie flat in the illusion of policy dividends, nor to sink into the anxiety of overcapacity, but to accurately meet the real needs of urban renewal, and to find their own new coordinates in the era of stock competition with the triple initiative of product innovation, structural adjustment and market layout.
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