Previous In the last article, a colleague left a message that made me laugh with tears: Following the voice of the peers in the circle, I talked about the reality that is becoming more and more obvious in the industry, but few people have broken through: In recent years, Along the Xijiang River, a large number of old cement and " traders are becoming fewer and fewer, and it is not just the poor market. The real root is that there is a long and uncontrollable time lag in Xijiang water transportation, and that we can not predict the time and extent of price adjustment in Guangdong, and the other side can accurately grasp our cost bottom line. Under the double pressure, upstream traders and export manufacturers are all trapped in the passive dilemma of losing money when they buy goods. First, when you leave the factory and lock the goods on board, your cards have already been exposed . In the past few years, most of the traders in Guangxi were in the traditional mode of taking the goods out of the factory: locking in the source of goods, ordering in full, and shipping to the downstream. Cement clinker is shipped from the upstream of Guangxi, passing through the major gates, and the whole water transport cycle depends entirely on the sky, the channel and the dispatch. In the dry season, the ship is blocked, and the longest detention is more than 20 days. Even if the navigation is smooth in the wet season, the transportation cycle is about a week, your money has been paid, and the goods have drifted on the river, but your "landed cost" is almost clear in the eyes of Guangdong: how much is the ex-factory price, how much is the shipping cost, how much is the capital occupation, and how much is the risk of detention-the Guangdong market clearly calculates these. The most fatal two points: one is that we can not predict when Guangdong will adjust the price and how much the price will be reduced; the other is that the other party has accurately calculated the total cost of your shipment, and directly depresses the local price below your cost line when your cargo has not landed or even passed the gate. The day when the goods arrive is the time of loss. The long water transport cycle, the unpredictable rhythm of price adjustment and the completely transparent cost structure are the biggest and most insoluble risk gaps for all Guangxi water transport traders. Second, manufacturers fully implement the price in place to save themselves, but also put themselves in the bull's eye . In the early years, manufacturers basically only made the factory price, which would leave enough profit space for middlemen. Over the past few years, Guangxi's production capacity has been released, and the pressure of export has increased dramatically. Jinxiang, Nanfang, Jinglan, and other major export factories have not only promoted direct sales at the price in place in Guangdong, but also laid out their own transit warehouses in the Pearl River Delta, opened up direct supply channels for landing at wharfs, reached the terminal directly in the whole process, completely skipped traders, and pushed the living space of middlemen to the extreme. The profit of traders is getting thinner and thinner, the fault tolerance rate is very low, and there is no profit or even loss if there is a slight fluctuation-this is the core reason why a large number of old traders turn to exit. However, this mode of in-place price + pre-layout of self-operated transit warehouse seems to be a strong channel, but in fact, it puts Guangxi manufacturers themselves on the target. In the past two years, the same script has been repeatedly staged: manufacturers, according to the current market, arrange production in large quantities, ship, and send goods to Guangdong at the right price. The goods went down the river, stuck in the water transportation cycle of 7 – 20 days. Often during this period of time when the goods are on the way, the Guangdong market suddenly reduces the price-how much? The result is that a large number of goods on the river are unsalable and ships are stranded. The original locked price is directly higher than market price in Guangdong, and it is not a little bit higher, but it just makes you pay for every ton you sell. The loss of price difference, the cost of ship detention, the cost of port pressure and the cost of capital occupation are all borne by the manufacturers themselves. Many people only see the strength of factory direct sales and self-built transit warehousing channels, but they do not see that the big factories in Guangxi that export prices in place have been badly hurt by Guangdong's "accurate cost calculation and precise knife" in the past two years. Today, no matter traders, distributors, or direct terminal manufacturers, everyone is firmly locked by the rhythm of Xijiang water transport and the precise price reduction in Guangdong. It is also from the beginning of these two years that the industry has really widened the gap: whether you can predict when the price of the other party will be adjusted and how much it will be lowered, and whether you can set aside enough cost safety cushion in the water transport cycle will directly determine whether you will make a profit or lose money this year. Market prediction is no longer the icing on the cake, but the basic survival skills of Guangxi export enterprises and traders. Third, the Xijiang River is a golden waterway and a "transparent ceiling" 
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