Today, it is said that the core of suppressing the price of Guangdong for so many years is not the supply of goods in Guangxi, but the disorder and unpredictability of the supply.
Guangdong and Guangxi cement market for so many years, I summed up a very real rule:
the market sporadic tentative price increases, most difficult to stand. The price increase that Guangdong can really land and sustain steadily has always been deeply bound with the dry season of the Xijiang River. There is no fixed time node for the
market to start.
Early years can be started at the end of September and in the middle and late October; late years, like last year, have been delayed until late November, and the price has really stabilized. Whether
the market comes early or late, it never depends on the month, but on the actual conditions.
Influenced by the precipitation of the year, the scheduling of the Tateng Gorge and the Changchou Junction, and the efficiency of navigation through the ship lock, if the dry season comes early, the price will rise early, and if the dry season is delayed, the market will also be delayed.
First, the most painful truth of Guangdong cement circle: not afraid of Guangxi arrival, most afraid of "disorderly arrival"
for a long time. Guangxi Cement , Guangdong practitioners know in their hearts that the inflow of Guangxi goods is normal, and we are not afraid of Guangxi goods entering the local market.". Everyone knows the
production capacity, output and circulation scale, and the normal arrival volume can be fully digested, predicted and played by the market.
Guangdong's real headache is disorder.
You can't predict how many goods will pour into the river tomorrow, and there is no bottom number of the arrival quantity.
The wet season is precisely the concentrated outbreak period of this disorderly supply. In
the wet season, the water level is sufficient, the ship lock passes smoothly, and there is no navigation restriction. Guangxi cement and clinker can flood into Guangdong in large quantities. There is no upper limit for supply, and the rhythm is completely out of control.
Faced with such a disorderly supply shock, even if the local enterprises in Guangdong have a strong willingness to stand up and do well in coordination, it is difficult to maintain the price increase.
This is also the fundamental reason why in recent years, most of the price increases in the wet season are short-lived and fail repeatedly.
Second, in the dry season, the Xijiang River forms a huge water reservoir
. After entering the dry season, the water level drops, the channel conditions are limited, the efficiency of the ship lock decreases, and there will be a large-scale backlog of ships along the Xijiang River.
Combined with the first-line field observation:
in the peak stage of the dry season, there are about 3500 ships waiting for navigation at the gates of the Xijiang River.
According to the conservative estimation of the long-term circulation structure of the industry,
when the ship is blocked, the ships transporting cement and clinker account for about 1/4 of the fleet waiting for navigation;
the draught is limited in the dry season, and the average load of a single ship is about 2000 tons.
Comprehensive calculation:
during the peak period of the Xijiang River, about 1.7 million tons of cement + clinker can be detained.
These more than 1.7 million tons of goods are equivalent to being transferred from the factory warehouse in Guangxi to the river surface as a whole, forming a huge water reservoir.
For Guangxi manufacturers, the inventory in the factory area has been transferred and released, and the inventory pressure has dropped, so there is no urgent motivation to clear the inventory at a low price, and it is easier for the region to form a consensus on the price.
For the Guangdong market, the ship lock will be released quantitatively every day, the supply of goods will be discharged in an orderly manner, and the arrival quantity will become controllable and can be assessed in advance. It is
no longer a blind box arrival, so the market has the basis of price, price increase and price stabilization.
(Note: This batch of cement and clinker has not disappeared, and the total amount has not decreased.
Only from the factory warehouse, temporarily stranded on the river, only changed the rhythm of arrival downstream.
The core meaning of the "water reservoir" of the Xijiang River is to transform the uncontrolled concentrated pouring in the wet season into the uniform transportation in batches in the dry season.
This can also explain everyone's doubts: Why in the past two years, even in the dry season, it is more and more difficult for Guangdong to raise prices? There is often a backlog of millions of tons of goods on the
river, the reservoir is fully stored, the supply constraints are strong, the success rate of price increase in Guangdong is very high, and there is a positive relationship between the scale of storage on the river and the success rate of price increase.
However, in recent years, the joint operation of the Xijiang River Basin has been continuously optimized, and the navigation efficiency has been greatly improved.
It is also in the dry season:
the number of ships waiting for the lock at the peak is decreasing year by year, the detention time of ships is shortening, and the volume of goods that can be locked on the river is decreasing year by year.
The reservoir is not full and can not be locked, and the supply constraints are obviously weakened.
Even in the dry season, the supply of goods in Guangxi can still be transported downstream continuously and rapidly.
The disorderly supply shock still exists, which is the deep reason why the price increase in the dry season is also easy to fail.
Third, the superposition of three conditions will lead to the birth of a truly sustainable and stable market
. 1. The supply constraints brought about by the current restriction of the ship lock (the core)
can only weaken the impact of the disorderly supply of low-price goods in Guangxi by delaying goods on a large scale in the dry season and lengthening the circulation cycle.
However, with the continuous improvement of navigation efficiency, the effectiveness of this most powerful logic of price stabilization is weakening year by year.
2. Downstream demand in the fourth quarter underpinned
the rainfall in South China in the fourth quarter, construction sites concentrated on rush work, and the actual demand for mixing stations rose on a month-on-month basis. Only
when there is real demand to undertake, can there be a chassis; without the support of demand, any price increase is a castle in the air.
3. The demand
of enterprises to repair profits at the end of this year " By the end of this year, the demands of enterprises in Guangdong and Guangxi tend to be the same, hoping to seize the window period to repair the market and make up for the losses of the whole year. The situation of mutual bargaining will be significantly reduced.
Four, manufacturers and traders how to grasp the market
to make market judgments, do not rigidly stare at the calendar and month. Whether
the price rises or not depends on the water level of the Xijiang River, the situation of ship blockage at the gate, and the overall storage volume on the river. If the
dry season comes early, the market will start early; if the dry season is pushed back, the market will be delayed.
Last year, the market was delayed until late November, and the essence was that the dry season came late.
Cognition also needs to be updated:
the ship lock is passing more and more smoothly, and the natural market adjustment ability of the Xijiang River is gradually weakening.
In the future, there will be no simple market that "prices will inevitably rise in the dry season". Most of the price increases during the
wet season are just tests; only when the Xijiang Reservoir really locks up the goods and straightens out the rhythm of circulation can price increases in Guangdong really stand firm.
浙公网安备33010802003254号