Frankly speaking, I dare not start writing this article.
On the pattern, Guangdong and Guangxi chaos; on the market, Guangdong and Guangxi volume; on the game, Guangdong and Guangxi miscellaneous.
Over the years, I have been familiar with the rhythm of rise and fall, channel routines and inventory cycle of Guangdong and Guangxi.
Only Hainan, as far as I am concerned, is always strange, distant and dare not make arbitrary decisions.
In order to write through this island market, I have no subjective conjecture and no experience to apply during this period. Do
only two things: consult senior peers in the industry who are deeply engaged in Hainan, and consult the real production capacity and demand account.
Calm down, sink down, dig up the data and listen to the front line.
It was not until I had sorted out all the details that I found
that Hainan was the simplest, most transparent and best understood cement market in South China, and there was nothing to talk about.
No chaos, no involution, no complex factions.
A sea separates heaven and earth, forming a pattern of its own.
It coincides with the completion of the Pinglu Canal, the connection of rivers and seas, and the remodeling of logistics.
On the one hand, the industry in Guangxi is full of expectations for the canal dividend, and many people are sure to be able to seize the supply of goods in Hainan on a large scale; on the other hand, local practitioners in Hainan have long been alert, calling "the wolf is coming". But the reality is between the two extreme expectations, and the dividends brought by the canal are far from exaggerated. There is a heated discussion
in the industry:
the waterway is open, the freight is reduced, Hainan." It is a closed-loop building materials market gently protected by the blue sea. The island has a
permanent population of 10.55 million. At its peak, with the large-scale infrastructure construction of the free trade port, the annual demand for cement in the island was once close to 20 million tons.
With the fading of the infrastructure boom and the end of the speculation market, the market has returned to normal demand, and now the annual stable demand for cement has fallen back to 13 million tons. The self-sufficiency rate of the whole
island is extremely high, only 15% of the cement is imported from outside the island, and most of the supply comes from Guangdong and Guangxi across the river.
Large and small production lines are matched step by step, which is suitable for the whole island's large and small infrastructure and civil engineering, and the production capacity structure is very healthy. The
four production lines account for 60% of Hainan's total production capacity, and the actual market share of the terminal is stable at 50%. The rise and fall of
prices, the temperature of the market and the rhythm of production and marketing in the island are basically dominated by Tianya Cement, which is the absolute vane of the local market.
In addition to the local leader, the two national cement giants have a clear layout and steady positioning in Hainan.
Follow the market, not malicious bargaining; stabilize the price and guarantee the offer, not disorderly involution.
There is no chaotic situation of cross-regional goods, close combat and monthly price adjustment in Guangdong and Guangxi.
It is also because of this stability that " all along, the export of cement from Guangdong and Guangxi has only been a stage of filling the gap in the Hainan market. It is not the mainstream supply. The high cost
of cross-sea logistics is a natural barrier.
Foreign sources of goods can only enter the island sporadically and fill the gap in stages, which can not penetrate the local mature channels and shake the local basic market. The navigation of
the Pinglu Canal completely changed the situation that before the navigation of the Gui " Canal, cement was transported from factories along the Zuojiang River. It is completely transported to Qinzhou Port by highway. The cost of automobile
transportation is superimposed on the miscellaneous expenses of the wharf, and the transfer is cumbersome and the cost remains high. After the
canal opened the river-sea passage, inland river shipping completely replaced the traditional highway transportation.
The goods go straight through the river to Qinzhou Port, and then through the port professional cement transit storage tank to complete the inversion and storage operations.
Combined with the first-line peer feedback and real account accounting:
the mainstream plant area in the Zuojiang River Basin, through the Pinglu Canal to the sea, the cost of integrated logistics per ton can be steadily saved by 15-20 yuan. The freight dividend saved by the
canal will eventually be slightly transmitted to the island market. The industry predicts that in the long run, there is room for Hainan's local cement price to be reduced by about 15 yuan per ton, but only this small fluctuation is not enough to completely break through the local price system and subvert the original market share.
This is the most realistic and hard-core real dividend for the export of building materials in southwestern Guangxi after the opening of the canal.
Freight has really dropped, and the market has generally formed an inherent judgment:
the cost advantage of cement in Guangxi has been enlarged, which is bound to go south on a large scale and impact the inherent market structure of Hainan.
But most people only see the sweetness of inland river cost reduction, but do not understand the real cost structure of the complete cross-sea link. The 15 to 20 yuan saved by the
canal only optimizes the short-distance freight from the Guangxi factory to Qinzhou Port.
Complete calculation of the total account of the whole link:
before the opening of the canal, the goods are delivered from the Guangxi factory area, through land transportation, sea transportation, wharf warehousing, and only transported to the Hainan wharf transit warehouse, the cost will be close to 100 yuan/ton.
The cost split is very clear:
the freight from the factory to Qinzhou Port is more than 50 yuan,
the sea freight from Qiongzhou Strait is more than 20 yuan, and
the landing and warehousing fee from Hainan Wharf is more than 20 yuan. The
three rigid costs are superimposed, which is directly close to the cost of 100 yuan.
This is only the price to the transit warehouse, if sent to the terminal site, the cost will be even higher. After the cost reduction of the
canal landed, the goods arrived at the transfer depot of Hainan wharf, and the comprehensive cost was still as high as 80-85 yuan/ton.
For cement, which is a heavy commodity with ultra-low gross profit, the price difference of more than ten or twenty yuan does not constitute a crushing price advantage at all. The cost reduction dividend of
inland rivers, which crosses the sea, passes through transit and is shared layer by layer, has already been greatly diluted in the competitiveness of Hainan's terminal market.
More core is: Hainan's market barrier, never is the freight.
One is the brand premium and channel barriers of local leaders.
Tianya Cement has been rooted in Hainan for decades, deeply cultivating local infrastructure, municipal and township channels, and the dealer system and customer relationship are deeply rooted.
In the Hainan market, the local source of goods has its own premium capacity. Under the
same conditions, engineering parties and distributors prefer Tianya.
Even if foreign cement is cheaper by more than a dozen yuan per ton, it is difficult to take away the fixed share.
Long-term accumulated trust and channel discourse power can not be subverted by freight price reduction.
Secondly, it is a natural geographical closed-loop barrier.
The island's production capacity is completely self-sufficient, the local distribution network covers the whole island, and the short-distance allocation is flexible and responsive.
Foreign cross-sea cargo sources, fixed shipping schedule, delayed arrival and clumsy transfer of goods can not completely adapt to the scattered and high-frequency rigid demand market in Hainan.
Thirdly, it is the rigid upper limit brought by the transit facilities of the two ports.
Not only are there problems of special berths and storage capacity for bulk cement on the Hainan side, but also the construction of cement transfer depots, loading and unloading berths and bulk transfer facilities on the Qinzhou Port side has failed to keep up with the demand for outward transportation. At this stage, the available resources are very limited, and there are shortcomings in two-way matching, which directly locks up the volume of large-scale centralized landing and distribution of Guangxi cement.
Fourthly, it is the ecological barrier of supply and demand that has been solidified for many years. From the beginning to the end,
Guangdong and Guangxi cement is a complementary source of goods.
It only enters the island in a small amount when there is a local shortage and short-term market fluctuations. The pricing system, stock rhythm and purchasing habits of the whole
island have already been finalized and are very stable.
Pinglu Canal is indeed a major upgrade of Southwest Logistics.
It really lowers the threshold for cement to go to sea in Southwest Guangxi and slightly improves its export competitiveness.
But the river is surging, and it is difficult to change the pattern of the sea. The inland river dividend of 15-20 yuan
per ton is more lively than vigorous.
It can not break down the natural barrier built by the sea, nor can it shake the Hainan cement market besieged by Tianya Cement, which has been deeply cultivated for many years and is highly stable.
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