In July, the profit account book of the cement industry became more and more ugly. In July, the average price of cement in China fell by 7.5 yuan in a single month, while the cost of coal per ton of cement fell by 1.3 yuan from 82.83 yuan to 81.55 yuan, according to
China Cement Network. Cement slowdown is nearly six times the "savings" of coal, the scissors gap has not narrowed, but has been reversed, the cement industry in the second half of 2026 ushered in a black start.
In July, the domestic coal price dropped significantly-5500 kcal steam coal dropped from 846 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 833 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the whole month dropped by 13 yuan. But there are two truths behind the "seemingly price reduction".
First, the coal price first fell and then rose: it began to rebound after falling to a stage low of 805 yuan/ton on July 9, and had basically recovered most of the decline by the end of the month. This round of coal price decline is more like a stage callback than a downward trend. Secondly, the fluctuation of coal price has little impact on the cost of coal per ton of cement-the coal price has been reduced by 13 yuan, the cost of coal per ton of cement has been saved by only 1.3 yuan, and the transmission efficiency is only about 10%. The reason is that the conversion coefficient of coal cost per ton of cement to coal price is about 0.098 (the coefficient of standard coal is added to the coal consumption level), and the fluctuation of coal price usually needs to be 50 yuan/ton to significantly affect the cost per ton of cement. The current decline of 13 yuan is not enough to bring substantial benefits to the cost side.
More noteworthy is that coal prices began to rebound in mid-July, climbing from 805 yuan/ton on July 9 to 833 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 28 yuan. If the coal price continues to rebound or even break through 850 yuan/ton in August, the cost saving of 1.3 yuan will not only be wiped out in an instant, but also the cost of coal per ton of cement will rise again. At that time, the cement industry will not only bear the continuous downward trend of the price side, but also face the reverse pressure of the cost side. Reverse expansion of the
scissors gap: industry profits lost another 6.2 yuan
in July. If the "false fall" of coal prices is the appearance, then the continued downward trend of cement prices is the real driving force behind the erosion of industry profits. The trend of price difference
in July revealed this cruel logic: on June 30, the price difference between cement and coal was 162.54 yuan, which once expanded to a monthly high of 164.82 yuan on July 6. However, this short-term stabilization was quickly broken, and the price difference immediately turned downward, which had shrunk to 157.35 yuan by the end of the month, and the price difference for the whole month narrowed by 5.19 yuan. The narrowing of the price gap means that the downward range of cement prices has outperformed the downward range of coal prices-the profit margin of the industry per ton of cement has been eroded by more than 5 yuan in reverse. The nibbling effect is even more dazzling when the
perspective is put into a longer time dimension. Since
the beginning of the year, the national average price of cement has dropped by more than 30 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the year, and dropped by more than 35 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year; although the cost of coal per ton of cement fluctuated in the same period, it remained stable as a whole, and did not follow the price down synchronously. This means that the cumulative profit pressure on the industry in the first half of 2026 is much more intense than 6.2 yuan shown in the July data.
In addition, the ex-factory price of cement in some areas has fallen to the edge of the cost line of 150 yuan/ton, the bottom of the profit of the cement industry may not yet come, and the reverse expansion of the scissors gap is pushing the bottom deeper and deeper.
Cement is falling, coal prices are "falling", scissors gap is expanding in reverse-6.2 yuan profit loss in July, which casts a shadow on the industry's profit trend throughout the year.
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