Recently, Zeng Yi, vice president of Trina Solar, made comments on industry trends on his personal social media, which triggered a heated debate in the industry. In the
video, Zeng Yi bluntly said that the spring of photovoltaic is coming. Based on the emergence of multiple signals such as the introduction of compulsory national standards such as polysilicon to speed up clearance and the release of new demand from the pilot projects of rural microgrids, he judged that " next year, the leading enterprises will be able to make profits, and the spring of shareholders will come in the third and fourth quarters of this year."
Zeng Yi's prediction has stirred up a lot of waves in the photovoltaic industry. Some people agree that photovoltaics can see the hope of the future, but others question that the brightness is still weak from the current situation.
Up to now, the cold winter period of the photovoltaic industry has lasted for nearly three years. Since entering the downward cycle, the photovoltaic industry has implemented multiple "self-help" measures from top to bottom, but now the results seem unsatisfactory.
On July 22, the National Energy Administration released the national electricity statistics from January to June this year. In the first half of this year, China's newly installed PV capacity was 72. Among them, the newly installed PV capacity in June was 12.48 GW , down 13 from the same period last year.
Under the conservative/neutral/optimistic assumption, the newly installed capacity of PV in China in 2026 will be 155/190/230GW, with a year-on-year increase of -51%/-40%/-27% . Bloomberg predicts that China's new installed capacity this year will be about 255 GW, down about 19% year-on-year. The downturn in
market demand makes the photovoltaic market continue to bottom.
Thanks to the vigorous promotion of the "anti-involution" action in the second half of 2025, the price of the photovoltaic industry chain has been restored in stages. However, the continued downturn in terminal market demand has caused the price of photovoltaic industry chain to collapse again. Entering 2026, "stall decline" has once again become the keynote of the main chain product price.
According to the tracking statistics of digital new energy DataBM. Com, since 2026, the average transaction price of all kinds of polysilicon has dropped to 31-32000 yuan/ton . Compared with the beginning of the year, the decline was more than 44% ; the average transaction price of silicon wafers has fallen to 0.8 yuan/piece ; By July, even some enterprises reported 0.
The continued low price of the industrial chain also led to the continuous "blood loss" of photovoltaic enterprises.
According to the statistics of Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, 37 A-share listed photovoltaic main chain enterprises lost about 1281 yuan
in the first quarter of 2024 to 2026. The total loss of 24 main industrial chain enterprises is up to 20 billion yuan .
Although the sluggish market demand is the main reason why the photovoltaic industry has not got rid of the downward cycle dilemma, it is not the only reason.
As to why the large-scale liquidation of the industry has been delayed, many photovoltaic enterprises gave their own answers at the "Seminar on the Review of the Development of the Photovoltaic Industry in the First Half of 2026 and the Prospect of the Situation in the Second Half of 2026" in late July.
At the same time, Jiang Jianfeng also said: All parties are too optimistic about the future prospects of PV, which is also one of the reasons why the industry cycle can not end as soon as possible. Xu Zhenyu , chief marketing officer
of Xiexin Technologies, believes that in addition to the serious imbalance between supply and demand, another part of the reason for the slow pace of capacity clearance is related to the rapid development of the industry before. From 2021 to 2024, the development of photovoltaic industry has entered a high boom stage, during which many photovoltaic enterprises have gained a lot of excess profits, which also leads to the relatively strong business resilience of each enterprise, and is unlikely to collapse quickly. At the same time, enterprises have optimistic expectations for the future development of the photovoltaic industry, so it is difficult to clear quickly in a short time. Zhou Chengjun, general manager
of Zhengtai Electric Appliances, added from the technical aspect: "In recent years, technology iteration is too fast, and a new technology is even difficult to maintain a dividend period of two or three years, which leads to a new round of iteration before the investment of new projects is recovered, thus inhibiting the industry's path of survival of the fittest through technological innovation." Can China's photovoltaic industry come out
in 2026? Entering the end of the second quarter, the signal of industry reversal is more and more clear. Since June
alone, China has issued a number of favorable policies from both ends of supply and demand to help the photovoltaic industry quickly return to the track of rational development. On the
supply side, China has introduced the "new national standards for photovoltaics"- "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades for Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Modules and Inverters", "Energy Consumption Limits for Silicon Single Crystal Unit Products" and "Energy Consumption Limits for Silicon Polycrystalline and Germanium Unit Products", which will be implemented in January next year. The elimination of backward and low-quality production capacity that does not meet the standards has become a fixed number, which has greatly stimulated the industry's confidence in the market. Wang Shuai, vice president
of Aixu Co., Ltd., judged at the semi-annual meeting of the association: "It is expected that about 20% of the production capacity will not be upgraded to the market by the end of this year." On
the demand side, China has launched a new edition of "Guidelines for Assessing the Capacity of Distributed Generation Access to Power Systems", "Measures for Implementing the Minimum Proportion Target of Renewable Energy Consumption and the Weight System of Responsibility for Renewable Energy Power Consumption", "Pilot Work for Deeply Promoting Rural Energy Revolution and Developing Micro-energy Network Construction in Villages and Towns" and other policies. Stimulate the release of photovoltaic installation demand.
At the same time, the intensive appearance of multiple major favorable signals of the " has given the photovoltaic industry a whiff of spring and a firm confidence in better development.
At present, the industry generally believes that 2026 will be the turning point of the photovoltaic industry. Many industry leaders even made a clear judgment that the photovoltaic industry is about to usher in spring.
"In the first half of the year, the output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components in China's photovoltaic industry chain declined year on year, but this just means that the turning point of reversal is approaching." Liu Yiyang , executive Secretary-General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said at the semi-annual meeting of the association. Chen Gang , chairman
of Aixu Co., Ltd., said at the SNEC meeting in June this year: "I personally believe that this round of photovoltaic cycle has come to an end, and some enterprises have reversed, but the external perception will be slightly slower." Jiang Dongyu, vice president
of Longji Green Energy, also said at a recent media conference that he was optimistic about the prospect of capacity clearance in the industry next year.
In addition, Longji Green Energy, Trina Solar Energy, Jingao Science and Technology and other leading enterprises will anchor 2026 as the node of turning net profit into profit. Yao Yao
of Sinolink Securities said: At present, the price and profit bottom of the industrial chain has been basically consolidated. With the promotion of less silver and high efficiency, the leading enterprises are expected to show a turning point in the second half of the year.
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