Don't deify the Pinglu Canal! Talking about the opportunities and unknowns of cement export in Guangxi

During this period, many friends in the background sent me private messages, asking me to have a good chat about the Pinglu Canal . Navigation

is coming soon, and the whole network is full of praise: the project of the century, rewriting the pattern, and opening up the southwest sea passage.

But the problem that everyone is most concerned about, and that no one has explained, is

actually this canal. Can we change Guangxi cement ? to understand the Pinglu Canal, Understand the underlying logic first: how Guangxi cement was sold before the canal appeared .

For thousands of years, the Xijiang River system has been the only lifeline for all cement and clinker transportation in Guangxi, and there is no second choice.

are gathered together at Guiping Junction and Changzhou Lock.".

Perennial ship blockage, low water load, unstable water level and fluctuation of freight rate are the pain points that our industry has never been able to avoid for more than ten years. It

is also because there are too many bottlenecks in the traditional waterway, so the expectations of the whole network for the Pinglu Canal are directly pulled to full marks.

However, I would like to say the truth of the industry today:

the Pinglu Canal can make up for the shortcomings, but it will not subvert the Xijiang River; it can make increments, but it cannot replace the basic plate of eastward Guangdong.

One or two channels, It's two completely different markets

. this is the biggest mistake.".

Traditional Xijiang waterway: eastward, serving the inland river market in the Pearl River Delta. The

docking is the mixing station along the Yangtze River in Guangdong, the inland infrastructure, and the construction sites just needed in urban and rural areas.

This is the largest, most stable and most mature basic plate of cement trade in Guangxi, which is irreplaceable. Channel

of Pinglu Canal: to the south, take the river-sea intermodal transport, and go out of Beibu Gulf . It forks

from the Pingtang River Estuary of the Yujiang River to Qinzhou Port and is transported by sea. The

docking is the coastal market of Hainan, the Beibu Gulf Port Industrial Zone and the foreign trade demand of Southeast Asia.

To put it more bluntly:

do inland rigid demand, do stock business, and always go to Xijiang. Only

by doing coastal foreign trade and incremental business can we use the Pinglu Canal. The relationship between the two

is complementary, not alternative. There

is no one to kill, which will only give Guangxi production capacity one more way out.

Second, those who really get dividends, Only the area along the Yangtze River in western Guangxi has production capacity

Fusui Conch, Chongzuo South, Chongzuo Red Lion, Denggao Cement, eastward: the whole long line flows eastward, passing through the lock layer by layer, blocking ships, consuming time and high cost;";

Go to the south: there is no water transport channel, only high-priced land transport to Qinzhou Port, there is no price competitiveness. After the opening of

the Pinglu Canal, the situation changed completely. The supply of goods

in western Guangxi can go directly from Yujiang River to Qinzhou Port,

greatly shortening the voyage, avoiding the congestion of Changzhou Gate and the problem of low water load.

This is the most solid, visible and landing logistics optimization.

The most important significance is that

for the first time, the production capacity in western Guangxi has an alternative way of "not relying on the Guangdong market".

Once the Guangdong market is fierce, the price is upside down and unprofitable,

the manufacturers in western Guangxi can switch the track, develop Hainan and foreign trade incremental orders southward, and greatly enhance their ability to resist risks.

Three, never deify! Ccement. Com/news/2607/richtext/IMG/6a62c075322018084653.

However, people who are deeply engaged in bulk water transportation all know that theoretical advantages are not equal to actual dividends.

1. Hydrological regulation in dry season is the biggest unknown risk

. The Pinglu Canal diverts water from the Yujiang River.

In the dry season of autumn and winter every year, the water level of the Xijiang River is tense and the load limit is normalized. Will the long-term southward diversion of the

canal further lower the water level of the downstream Yujiang and Xijiang rivers?

Hydrological impact, no one dares to draw a conclusion now, must go through a complete cycle of high and low water to verify.

2. The ship type barrier is extremely high, and ordinary inland river ships cannot run by sea

. At present, the mainstream transport ships on the Xijiang River in Guangxi are all ordinary inland river ships of 1000 – 2000 tons.

This kind of ship cannot go into the sea or enter the Beibu Gulf . There are only two ways

to take the Pinglu Canal to the sea:

either to replace the special river-sea direct ship at a high price,

or to go to Qinzhou Port for the second transit loading and unloading.

Transit means: superimposed loading and unloading costs, losses, time costs. The freight profits saved by

many channels are directly returned to zero after a round of transit.

3. The supporting facilities of bulk cement in Qinzhou Port are not yet mature

. The strengths of Qinzhou Port are: containers, ore, bulk cargo and energy materials. Specialized berths, storage and transportation facilities

specially suitable for bulk cement and clinker are not sufficient. Large-scale outward transportation of

bulk building materials depends not on a river, but on the supporting facilities, storage capacity and loading and unloading efficiency of the wharf.

Supporting facilities can not keep up, and the waterway can not undertake large-scale cargo flow.

4. Overseas market competition is extremely cruel

, and the opening of the channel does not mean that orders come to the door automatically.

Vietnam is a big exporter of clinker in the world, with sufficient production capacity, extremely low cost and fierce price;

Hainan's market volume is limited, with strong fluctuation and obvious periodicity. Whether

Guangxi goods can gain a firm foothold in the open sea,

the ultimate battle is the factory cost, logistics cost, price advantage,

not a canal can lie down to make money.

4. Final pattern: Guangxi Cement has officially entered the "dual-channel era".

From the perspective of industry practitioners, the future pattern is very clear:

1. The basic situation of Guangxi → Guangdong inland rivers will not be shaken.

The Pearl River Delta just needs, inland construction sites, mature channels and long-term inertial trade

are still the absolute main force of cement sales in Guangxi, and the status of Xijiang artery is irreplaceable.

2. Move eastward to protect the basic plate and move southward to make incremental plates. The greatest value of

the Pinglu Canal:

Guangxi's production capacity will no longer be bound to the Guangdong market alone, and

will no longer be locked in the price war between Guangdong and Guangxi.

It will have one more export, one more confidence, and one more layer of anti-cyclical ability.

, it makes up for the weakness of Guangxi in going south to the sea."

It will not subvert the pattern of inland river trade in Guangdong and Guangxi, which has been precipitated for decades.

After a round of wet season and dry season, and

seeing the real freight rate, the real shipping flow and the real cargo flow,

we will come to an objective conclusion:

how much real dividend can this Century Canal bring to the cement industry in Guangxi.