Recently, Jinyu Jidong released its annual report for 2025, pointing out that the cement industry is entering a historical node of profound change and pattern remodeling based on the current and long-term perspective. With the transformation of macro-economy, the increasingly stringent industrial policies, the continuous evolution of market demand and the breakthrough of technological revolution, the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" will become a critical period for the survival and development of enterprises.
1. At the macro level, the national strategic transformation anchors the new coordinates for the development of the industry. The country is in a critical period of transforming the mode of development, optimizing the economic structure and transforming the driving force of growth. The strategy of expanding domestic demand is organically combined with the deepening of supply-side structural reform, the construction of a modern industrial system in traditional industries, and the goal of "double carbon" has become a national strategy, which means that the cement industry should more firmly turn to the path of high-quality development of innovation and efficiency.
2. At the demand level, total contraction and structural differentiation will become the trend. Although the peak of cement demand has passed, the decline in demand is not linear and balanced, and will show a slowdown and structural differentiation: on the one hand, the demand for stock upgrading represented by urban renewal and underground transportation network upgrading will continue to be released; on the other hand, a new round of infrastructure investment represented by "dual" construction will form structural support such as key projects. Cement demand is extensive and irreplaceable, but the change of demand structure will force the supply system to upgrade, and enterprises with stronger industrial chain, alienated product development capabilities and market service capabilities will have greater development space.
3. At the supply level, the two-wheel drive of capacity reduction and structural optimization has accelerated the increase of industry concentration. Supply-side structural reform is still the main line of the cement industry. Under the guidance of environmental protection, energy consumption, carbon emissions, quality, safety and other policies, the cost gap between advanced enterprises and backward enterprises will be further widened. Overlapping the overall contradiction between supply and demand will force the withdrawal of inefficient production capacity to accelerate. In the future, industry mergers and reorganizations may accelerate, and production capacity will accelerate to concentrate on leading enterprises with technology, capital, resources and brand advantages.
4. At the technical level, green low-carbon and digital intelligence have become the twin engines of industry transformation and upgrading. In terms of green and low-carbon, the cement industry, as a key carbon emission industry, must accelerate the realization of deep emission reduction. In terms of digital intelligence, the new generation of information technology represented by artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and big data is deeply integrated with manufacturing industry. "Artificial intelligence + building materials" promotes the automation of production process, intelligent management decision-making and efficient supply chain collaboration, which has become the future trend of manufacturing enterprises.
5. At the level of market structure, the industry ecology is continuously optimized. With the deepening implementation of the policy of "anti-involution", vicious price competition will be effectively curbed, but the long-term trend of reduction, differentiation and integration will not change the internal and external advantages of the leading enterprises in the region, such as mine resource guarantee, better production cost control and customer service ability. Promote a more stable and orderly market competition pattern, and gradually return to a reasonable and more optimized industry ecology.
6. At the international level, overseas markets have become an important growth pole. Emerging economies and developing countries in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Africa are in the stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization, and the demand for infrastructure is strong, which creates opportunities for Chinese enterprises to invest overseas. The demand for green building materials is also rising in the global response to climate change. Increasing the overseas market layout is expected to provide a new "growth curve"
for the domestic cement industry, including production capacity and products going to sea. To sum up, as far as the cement industry is concerned, the total contraction can not be changed, but the structural mechanism exists: the policy guidance continues to be strengthened, which opens up a new development space for the green low-carbon and digital transformation; the market competition is becoming increasingly fierce. However, the improvement of industry concentration and the change of competition order provide a historical opportunity for leading enterprises to become bigger and stronger.
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