of the development of the global PV industry in 2025 In 2025, there was a significant differentiation in the scale expansion of the global PV manufacturing sector. The production capacity of polysilicon and
In 2025, the global photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 580 GW, reaching a new record high, with a cumulative installed capacity of 2656 GW. Among them, China added 316.57 GW and India added 36.6GW, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 49.4%. Overview
of the development of China's PV industry
in 2025 In 2025, due to the mismatch of supply and demand in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, price fluctuations in the supply chain and the complex and severe external environment, the output of China's PV manufacturing industry experienced a phased correction. The output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, modules and other links has declined to varying degrees, among which the decline of polysilicon and modules is more obvious. The market share of N-type silicon wafers has fully replaced that of p-type silicon wafers and become the absolute mainstream; the conversion efficiency of the mainstream battery technologies in mass production has been steadily improved.
In 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China reached 316.57 GW, an increase of 14.05% over the same period last year, exceeding the total newly installed capacity in the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Influenced by the distributed management measures and the No.136 document policy, the phenomenon of "rush to install" appeared in the first half of the year, with an increase of 92.92 GW in May. After the policy window period, the installed capacity declined sharply for many consecutive months, and gradually rebounded after September. In terms of installed capacity structure, the centralized system accounted for 51.7%, which continued to occupy the dominant position; the industrial and commercial distributed system accounted for 33.8%, which increased steadily for three consecutive years; the household distributed system accounted for 14.5%, which increased significantly compared with the previous year. In terms of the export of
photovoltaic products, the total export volume in 2025 was about 29.356 billion US dollars, down about 8% from the previous year, and the decline was narrower than that of the previous year. The export volume of silicon wafers, batteries and components all increased year on year, especially the export volume of batteries. Exports of components have reached a record high for nine consecutive years. Export markets tend to be diversified, traditional markets and emerging markets work together, and the dependence on a single market is reduced. In terms of industrial chain prices, 2025 showed a trend of low volatility in the first half of the year and stabilization and recovery in the second half of the year, and the prices of polysilicon and other sectors rose considerably year on year. As of December, the price index of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components rose by 42.9%, 1.4%, 13.4% and 2.1% respectively.
While making achievements, the photovoltaic industry is still facing the challenge of deep adjustment in 2025. The output of each link at the manufacturing end decreased significantly year on year, and the profit margin of enterprises continued to be under pressure. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are facing operational difficulties, and industry shuffling is accelerating. The asset-liability ratio of the main industrial chain is still at a high level. It is suggested that enterprises strengthen cash flow management, accelerate technological innovation to build a moat, optimize the layout of overseas production capacity to disperse risks, and actively expand the "photovoltaic +" integration application scenario to cultivate the second growth curve.
(3) Prospects for
future development trends According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 80% of the world's new clean energy installed capacity will come from solar energy by 2030. According to the forecast of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual new installed capacity of photovoltaic in the world is about 725 – 870 GW, and the average annual new installed capacity in China is about 238 – 287 GW. During
the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the photovoltaic industry needs to shift from the extensive mode of "scale and price competition" to the high-quality development track of "value competition". In terms of technological innovation, the industry will accelerate the mass production of silver-free/low-silver technology, accelerate the industrialization of perovskite and tandem batteries, and optimize the production process through AI quality inspection, digital twins and other digital means. In the aspect of greening, the key energy-using links will realize "green to green", and the evaluation criteria of photovoltaic products will introduce the dimension of green value. In terms of integration, we will actively expand the coupling application of photovoltaic and hydrogen ammonia production, computing power center and other fields.
At present, the global trade environment is becoming increasingly complex. After the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was completely abolished in April 2026, the industry has entered a new stage of market-driven. Enterprises need to pay more attention to strategy and flexibility in overseas layout: first, closely integrate with national diplomatic strategies such as "the Belt and Road"; second, adopt diversified operation modes to promote standards, testing and certification services to go to sea; third, effectively prevent the risk of core technology loss through decentralized capacity layout and the combination of sole proprietorship, joint venture and OEM.
浙公网安备33010802003254号