first half of 2026, the cement industry has a clear understanding of the scale of losses and the decline in production. But there is another number that many people may not have noticed-three. In the first half of the year, only three cement clinker production lines were ignited and put into operation in China.
They are Shandong Lianhe Wangqi Cement 4000t/d Technical Transformation Project, Jiaxian Zhonglian Tianguang Cement Co., Ltd. 4500t/d Technical Transformation Project and Anhui Guangde Nanfang Cement 7500t/d Clinker Project. This is all the new production line projects of the whole industry through capacity replacement in the first half of the year.
Compare a set of numbers to see what this means. There are 26 new ignition clinker lines in 2020, 21 in 2021, 19 in 2022, 16 in 2023, 11 in 2024 and 5 in 2025. In six years, it dropped from 26 to 5. Up to the first half of this year, 3 . In the second half of the year, it is expected that there will be three to five to be put into production, but even if all of them are realized, there will be only seven or eight in the whole year-five years ago, there is still a gap from the volume of half a year. It's not a cliff-like slide, but a slide along the cliff to the end. On the
other hand, in the first half of the year, four clinker lines announced that they would no longer promote construction, with a total capacity of 6.82 million tons. Three projects have been put into operation and four projects have been suspended-the number of projects put into operation is still being reduced, while the number of projects suspended is solid, and the production capacity is no longer upgraded to maintain the status quo . Lengthen the time to see more eye-catching: In the whole year of 2025, a total of 31 clinker lines were announced to be no longer under construction, with a total capacity of 47.46 million tons. In more than a year, 35 lines announced that they would no longer upgrade . This is not a simple shift, but a fundamental reversal of industry logic.
In the cement industry, investment in production lines used to be accounted for. In the 20 years since the urbanization rate rose from 36% to 66%, the general trend of demand has been upward, and the market has risen and fallen, but eventually there is a bottom-the trough period has passed. But now it's different. According to the statistics of Cement Big Data Research Institute, there are still nearly 30 clinker lines in the preparatory stage, hanging in the air, in a dilemma: the account calculated at the beginning of the project, the anchored market demand, price expectations, and the return cycle, each of which is no longer valid. The logic behind
this is actually very simple: in 2025, the utilization rate of the national clinker production capacity has been less than half, and the demand probability will decline year by year. Upgrading and building lines is not to create value, but to make oneself unhappy .
From rushing to upgrade and build new lines in the past to taking the initiative to shelve and maintain the status quo ; With funds and indicators, they have made every effort to upgrade and build new lines , and few new lines have been put into operation throughout the year. The three production lines in the first half of 2026 are not half-year report cards, but the end of an era. The era of China Cement's large-scale construction of new lines through capacity replacement and upgrading has officially come to an end.
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