Cement Net Comments: Why Does Phosphogypsum Acid Co-production of Cement Clinker Cause "Panic" in the Industry? -Breaking the current price maintenance logic

Since the beginning of this year, Hubei phosphogypsum projects have intensively landed: Huiyang, Bangpuyihua, Dongsheng, Xingfa, Dingrun, Yuntu.. A batch of production lines in the name of "phosphogypsum acid co-production of cement clinker " have successively announced capacity replacement schemes, and the capacity of co-production lines in Hubei Province alone has exceeded 10 million tons. The basic logic

of phosphogypsum acid co-production of cement clinker is that phosphorus chemical enterprises produce clinker "conveniently" for "acid production cost + solid waste consumption", and clinker is only a by-product. The reason why it makes the cement market along the Yangtze River "panic" is not only because of the large quantity, but also because it breaks through the adjustment logic of "falling price → reducing production → warming up" formed by the cement industry in recent years, and these projects are just stuck at the source of the Yangtze River, the main artery of cement logistics.

1. Do not participate in peak staggering and jump out of the rules of the game.

Staggering exemption is a knife to the heart of the industry. The phosphogypsum co-production line breaks away from the iron law of peak shifting by virtue of three identities: firstly, the ownership is misplaced, which belongs to the chemical supporting clinker line and is explicitly excluded; secondly, the solid waste is exempted, and the consumption of phosphogypsum falls into the clause of "solid waste disposal can not shift the peak"; thirdly, the decision is driven by the profit of sulfuric acid, and the shutdown of the kiln increases the cost of environmental protection. The chemical line is fully loaded throughout the year, and the results of peak staggering are seriously diluted. What is more terrible is the collapse of trust, the opponent "does not obey the rules", the anti-involution tool of peak staggering will fail as a whole, and the foundation of the industry will be loosened.

2. Decision-making logic is completely different-it does not participate in the "anti-involution" game.

Traditional enterprises are willing to participate in peak staggering because they agree with the "loss of production reduction when prices fall". Loss of continued production. Phosphogypsum companies, on the other hand, depend on whether sulfuric acid is profitable and whether phosphogypsum has a place to go, rather than price of cement. On the contrary, the shutdown of production makes phosphogypsum return to solid waste and increases the cost of environmental protection. Therefore, the logic of shutdown is totally different, even if the price of cement falls through the cost line, it is also "irrelevant".

3. Periodicity is stripped-the impact is continuous and structural.

Traditional supply will shrink with the cement cycle, while phosphogypsum clinker "cycle does not follow the market". The two industries essentially belong to two industries . Even if a large number of traditional cement enterprises withdraw from the market with the rapid decline of cement demand in the future, it will not have much impact on the co-production of cement clinker with phosphogypsum. On the contrary, the phosphogypsum project just dilutes the achievements of the cement industry in capacity reduction. In short, the probability of future cement production capacity withdrawal is also traditional cement enterprises rather than phosphogypsum clinker enterprises .

4. The special location along the Yangtze River magnifies the threat

that the Yangtze River is the main artery of cement clinker "down the river" into the core demand areas of the Yangtze River Delta (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui), while the phosphogypsum enrichment areas-Yichang and Dangyang in Western Hubei are just upstream. Once these co-production clinker goes downstream, it will directly hedge the supply contraction brought about by peak staggering in the Yangtze River Delta, and completely overhead the price support of "peak staggering price increase".

5. Completely different cost logic. The economy of

the co-production clinker plant is borne by sulfuric acid. When the price of sulfuric acid is high, clinker is a by-product of "free delivery", and when the price of sulfuric acid is low, it is an auxiliary means to balance the profits and losses of enterprises. Clinker is essentially a "by-product" of enterprises, and saves the cost of limestone mining and gets the income of solid waste disposal, which is totally different from the rigid cost logic of "limestone + coal + electricity" in traditional cement plants. What we

really need to be vigilant about is not the quantity, but

the real difficulty for the cement market along the Yangtze River to cope with. It has never been the current replacement of clinker production capacity. After all, it is a 1:1 replacement, which brings very limited increments, but it opens up a supply channel that is not constrained by supply and demand and does not fluctuate with the cement cycle.

For the traditional cement industry, this is no longer a cost dispute, but a rule dispute. When "by-products" can be dissociated from the existing "play method" of the industry, and when peak staggering only takes effect on the cement industry itself, any self-repair of the industry will become empty talk, and it is inevitable to break the current pattern.

In order to help cement enterprises cross the cycle and make green transformation, China Cement Network is scheduled to hold the 16th China Cement Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference and the 1st Solid Waste Comprehensive Utilization and Fluidized Solidified Soil Development Conference in Wuhan, Hubei Province, from December 3 to 4, 2026. The conference will focus on the production process of phosphogypsum acid co-production clinker, and discuss its impact on the cement industry with the industry.