cement industry? A group of shocking data is revealing the survival dilemma of this industry. Since the beginning of
this century, with the rise of the real estate market and the construction of a large number of national projects, China's cement output has increased from 600 million tons in 2000 to 2.1 billion tons in 2022 after more than 20 years of development, while the production capacity has also leaped from 700 million tons to 3.6 billion tons in 2022, and the surplus rate has risen from 14% to 42%. In 2022, the demand for cement began to decline, and the contradiction of excess capacity became more and more serious, with the excess rate reaching 48% in 2024. In the past three years, the industry's internal volume has been extremely serious, vicious competition has intensified, and industry profits have fallen from a high of 180 billion yuan in 2019 to 26 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 85%. What is more worrying is that in August 2025, the average price of cement in Guangdong dropped from 810 yuan/ton in 2021 to 220 yuan/ton, and the price of cement in the Yangtze River Delta region also dropped from 750 yuan/ton to below 200 yuan/ton. Most enterprises are losing money or close to losing money, the industry situation is extremely grim, and "anti-involution" is imminent.
It is noteworthy that since this century, China's cement price has been in the global depression, and the cement industry has been striving to achieve the return of industry value. Before 2022, the cement industry is in a period of rapid expansion and plateau, and the ups and downs of the price trend are basically in line with the world (see Figure 1). However, after 2022, China's cement industry has entered a downward period (the investment bank optimistically predicts that the sales volume of cement in 2030 will be about 1.2 billion tons in 2022), and is facing the aggravation of the serious contradiction of excess capacity, especially in 2024, when the excess capacity is nearly half, the vicious competition of cement is becoming more and more intense. In 2024, the industry profit margin fell to the lowest level since this century (Figure 2), and the cement price was less than 1/3 of that in Europe and the United States, and only 1/10 of that in Greenland.
Figure 1 China/Europe/US Cement Price Comparison
Figure 2 China's Cement Industry Overcapacity and Profit Margin Trend
Over the past decade, although the state and provinces have issued a series of policies, due to some local protectionist reasons and the excessive pursuit of short-term interests by individual enterprises. The serious contradiction of excess capacity in the cement industry has not been substantially alleviated. Moreover, after 2022, with the sharp shrinkage of cement demand, the industry has entered a period of rapid decline. In 2024, the overcapacity of the cement industry has approached 50%, the industry is seriously involved, the vicious competition is still intensifying, and the cement price has fallen continuously, even below the cost line.
At present, the cement industry has reached the most dangerous time, and it is urgent for the cement industry to "reverse involution", resolve the serious contradiction of excess capacity, get out of the price depression and restore the reasonable profits of the industry.
China Cement Network will hold the 15th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony in Hangzhou on April 9-10. At the same time, the " Cement Economy Fifty People Forum (C50) " was held. The Summit will build a platform for the docking of supply and demand and the collision of ideas, explore the path of green transformation and intelligent upgrading from the dimensions of macroeconomic insight, industrial chain synergy and technological innovation breakthroughs, plan a layout for the "15th Five-Year Plan" green development of the industry, and work together to create a new chapter of high-quality development!
浙公网安备33010802003254号