With the deep linkage of the global economy and the high resonance of the financial cycle, the asset bubble generated by the current AI super cycle in the United States is in the stage of high volatility, and there is a risk that the bubble will burst soon. Leading semiconductor stocks in South Korea and Taiwan have experienced a sharp correction, reflecting the divergence of market expectations for AI capital expenditure and earnings in advance. Once the AI bubble enters the burst stage, it will trigger a chain reaction through financial credit, interest rate exchange rate, market confidence and other channels, relying on the butterfly effect to form a global transmission that affects the whole body. This paper analyzes the differential impact of this event on the two major real estate markets in the United States and China, and settles on the cement industry to study the opportunities, risks and medium and long-term investment strategies of the industry.
First, the impact
of AI bubble bursting on the real estate market in the United States. The core driving force of this round of real estate boom in the United States is not the rigid demand for housing, but the capital dividend and industrial increment generated by AI bubble, which are deeply bound and highly resonated, and the market resilience is weak.
Previously, the global AI industry continued to expand fanatically, with massive capital pouring into the fields of AI concept stocks, computing power projects and semiconductor infrastructure, which pushed up the valuation of American technology companies, lowered financing costs and greatly expanded capital expenditure. On the one hand, in Silicon Valley, Seattle and other core cities of science and technology, the rising salaries and equity returns of science and technology practitioners directly stimulate the demand for high-end residential purchases and boost regional housing prices; On the other hand, large-scale data centers, computing power industrial parks and supporting power grid infrastructure have been centralized, which has led to the outbreak of non-residential construction investment in the United States, revitalized the upstream and downstream building materials, engineering and rental markets, and formed a positive cycle of "AI boom-real estate boom". At the same time, the long-term US bond yield continues to be supported by the capital demand in the AI field, and the optimistic expectations are superimposed, which further consolidates the high pattern of US real estate.
However, there are obvious shortcomings in this prosperity system, which is highly dependent on the AI capital cycle and just needs insufficient basic support. At present, real estate in the United States has shown signs of weakness: new housing starts continue to fall, existing housing contracts weaken, builder confidence declines, high mortgage interest rates continue to suppress the willingness to buy houses, and it is already at the fragile node of the downward cycle.
If the subsequent AI bubble bursts, it will trigger a full range of negative chain cycles: First, the collapse of AI enterprise valuation, the tightening of financing channels, the lowering of earnings expectations, the suspension or termination of a large number of long-term computing infrastructure projects, the direct removal of the incremental support of non-residential real estate, and the rapid shrinkage of demand for commercial real estate and industrial supporting housing; Second, the technology industry layoffs, salary shrinkage, equity asset depreciation, the wealth effect of residents faded, the demand for high-end housing in technology-intensive cities declined, and housing prices entered the adjustment channel. Third, the impairment of AI assets forced financial institutions to tighten risk control, raise the credit threshold, and the development loans of real estate enterprises and the mortgage of residents contracted synchronously, which suppressed the real estate market from both supply and demand; Fourth, the spread of panic and the flight of investment purchase funds further magnify the downward pressure on housing prices.
Overall, this round of real estate boom in the United States belongs to the subsidiary market of AI bubble, lacking long-term support and limited policy space. Once the AI bubble is cleared, the real estate in the United States will usher in a round of deep adjustment.
Second, the impact of the imminent bursting of the AI bubble on China's real estate market: organic in crisis and favorable
against the trend are totally different from the high real estate pattern in the United States. China's real estate industry has undergone years of deep adjustment and is at the bottom of the cycle. The fundamentals, policy logic and the US market are significantly separated. AI bubble burst will not form a new downward pressure on domestic housing prices, but will become an important catalytic factor for the stabilization and recovery of real estate.
(I) Current situation of China's real estate market: continuous downward trend and real estate enterprises entering the deep water
area Over the past few years, the domestic real estate industry has completely bid farewell to the stage of rapid growth and entered the cycle of stock adjustment and risk clearance. The imbalance between supply and demand accumulated by long-term rapid expansion continues to be exposed, the total housing surplus, the slowdown of urbanization growth, the weak expectation of residents to buy houses, and the market continues to decline. In the process of
industry adjustment, small and medium-sized housing enterprises continued to clear, large-scale housing enterprises orderly risk mitigation, the old development model of high leverage and high turnover ended, and the industry completed a systematic shuffle. Housing prices are weak as a whole, most of the third and fourth-tier cities continue to adjust, and only a few core cities remain resilient. After several rounds of adjustment, the current domestic real estate risk has been fully released, the bubble is basically cleared, housing prices, industry valuation, residents'debt level is at a historic low, and the downward space is limited.
(2) Continuous introduction of domestic real estate support policies
In the face of downward pressure on the market, China adhered to the regulatory direction of "stabilizing real estate, preventing risks and promoting transformation", and continued to introduce relief policies to keep the bottom line. From the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions, the reduction of down payment ratio, the decline of mortgage interest rate, to the landing of special loans, relief funds for housing enterprises, transaction tax and fee relief and other tools, systemic risks have been resolved and the basic market has been stabilized. However, the previous policy is mainly to maintain stability, the stimulus is moderate, the market recovery momentum is insufficient, and a stronger policy mix is still needed to restore residents'confidence and improve the balance sheet.
(3) Changes in the external environment will open the window
for domestic real estate policy. The global fluctuations brought about by the collapse of the AI bubble in the United States will not impact the domestic real estate at the bottom, but will create a window period for domestic policy easing. The implementation of the policy is expected to be carried out in four steps:
the first step (already implemented): targeted mortgage interest discount
for newly needed housing is implemented for the first suite of less than 150 square meters with a total price of less than 1.2 million, targeted support for newly needed housing, and stabilize the demand for basic housing.
The second step (expected implementation) is to expand the discount to all new houses
, break through the restrictions of house type and total price, cover all new commercial houses with discount, lower the threshold of home ownership, stimulate the transaction of new houses, and help real estate enterprises to reduce inventory.
The third step (expected implementation) is to extend the discount to the stock mortgage
. In view of the pain point of the high pressure on the monthly supply of the stock mortgage, the discount policy will cover the stock mortgage, substantially reduce the debt burden of residents and restore the consumption capacity. Step
4: Further easing
of domestic monetary policy After the AI bubble burst, the US economy will be under pressure, the Federal Reserve will quickly start the interest rate reduction cycle, the global interest rate environment will turn loose, opening up the domestic interest rate reduction space, the domestic has the conditions to continue to cut interest rates, and even close to zero interest rates in extreme scenarios. The low cost of capital will benefit the financing of housing enterprises and the mortgage of residents, and provide liquidity support for the recovery of real estate.
(4) Long-term pattern: Structural differentiation is the main line
of policy easing and cyclical warming, which can not change the long-term fundamentals of domestic housing surplus. The era of general inflation is completely over, and structural differentiation will become a long-term feature. In the future, the market will focus on the core cities with continuous population inflow and solid industrial foundation, represented by more than ten cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Hangzhou and Hefei, which have the momentum of continuous recovery; most of the third and fourth tier cities, restricted by population outflow and high inventory, can only follow the general trend to stabilize slightly, and it is difficult to get out of the rising market.
(5) Macro Value: Repairing the Balance Sheet of Residents and Activating Domestic Demand
The greatest significance of this round of policy easing is not to stimulate the scale of real estate to increase again, but to repair the balance sheet of middle-class households. In the past few years, housing prices have declined, and some buyers have fallen into negative equity, suppressing the willingness to consume. With the stabilization and recovery of housing prices in core cities, this part of household assets has returned to positive value, and wealth confidence has been restored, which has led to the recovery of consumption in the whole society, forming a positive cycle of "real estate stabilization-asset repair-consumption recovery-steady economic growth". Impact
on the cement industry, opportunities and investment strategies
Real estate is the most important chassis of cement demand. The weak recovery of real estate and the shift of global AI cycle bring domestic integration opportunities and overseas investment risks to the cement industry, which need to be dealt with differently.
(I) Domestic: Seize the weak recovery window of real estate and accelerate the joint restructuring
of the industry The domestic cement industry has long been facing the problems of overcapacity, homogenization and large profit fluctuations. In the window period of this round of marginal weak recovery of real estate, the industry should take the initiative to promote joint restructuring and regional integration, improve market concentration, control supply in an orderly manner, stabilize regional prices, take this opportunity to improve the overall efficiency of the industry, and get rid of the old mode of simple cost competition and low price competition. Although the demand increment brought by the weak recovery of
real estate is limited, it is a rare positive window at the bottom stage of demand. Leading enterprises can complete the regional capacity combing, equity integration and market synergy, pave the way for the follow-up cycle and enhance the anti-cycle ability.
(II) Overseas investment: Be alert to the cyclical risk
of blindly launching new projects. At present, many cement enterprises are located in overseas markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa and South Asia, and need to be highly alert to external cyclical shocks. If we blindly build new cement production lines at this stage, once the AI bubble in the United States formally bursts, global capital contraction, overseas real estate and infrastructure investment rapidly cools down, it is easy to encounter demand cliffs, a large number of overseas projects appear capital rupture, construction stagnation, and eventually form uncompleted assets.
Now is not a good time for new overseas projects. A truly rational investment strategy is to wait patiently for this round of AI bubble to be fully cleared; wait until AI technology precipitates, robots, intelligent manufacturing and other real landing application scenarios start the second round of upward cycle, and after overseas demand picks up again, then choose the opportunity to acquire cement projects that have failed and the valuation has shrunk dramatically.
At this point of acquisition, asset prices are lower, risks are fully released, and there is no need to carry the downward trough alone, so as to avoid falling into the cold winter of demand immediately after the project is put into operation and suffering a long and painful loss cycle.
(3) The medium and long-term direction
of the industry is that cement is a strong cyclical variety, and the demand is bound to the three main lines of real estate, infrastructure and overseas investment. The domestic main line relies on integration and efficiency improvement, solid waste recycling, special cement and other high value-added tracks to hedge the downward trend of traditional demand; the core of overseas investment is timing, avoiding the impact of demand after the bubble burst, waiting for the opportunity of mergers and acquisitions after the cycle is cleared.
Fourth, the industry cycle enlightenment: the establishment of counter-cyclical regulation thinking
, this round of AI, real estate, building materials cycle linkage, confirms that all industries are cyclical. At the level of macroeconomic management, we should respect the law of the cycle: in the upward boom stage of the industry, we should not over-stimulate or add fuel to the fire to prevent the bubble from continuing to expand; at the high point of the cycle, we should introduce moderate cooling policies in advance to actively mitigate risks; after entering the bottom of the cycle, we should timely support the bottom and precisely relax to avoid deep depression. Through the counter-cyclical adjustment of upward bubble control, high risk prevention and bottom stable expectation, the sharp fluctuation of the industry can be ironed out and the smooth operation of the macro-economy can be guaranteed.
Conclusion
The AI bubble in the United States is at a high level of volatility, and there is a risk that it is about to burst. The leading semiconductor companies in South Korea and Taiwan, China, have pulled back sharply. The bursting of the bubble is obviously bad for the real estate in the United States, which will bring about the adjustment of housing prices and construction demand; for the real estate in China, which is already at the bottom, it will open up the space for policy easing and bring structural repair opportunities. Transmission to the cement industry, China should seize the weak recovery window of real estate to promote joint restructuring and improve the profitability of the industry; overseas investment should not blindly build new projects, avoid the impact of global demand caused by the burst of AI bubble, wait patiently for the bubble to clear and the outbreak of AI real application scenarios, and then choose the opportunity to acquire low-priced uncompleted cement assets, which is a more stable cycle investment idea.
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