February 2026, the supply side of the global lithium market has been continuously disturbed, and the core event is the intensive adjustment of the mining policy of Zimbabwe, the fourth largest lithium producer in the world. This change, combined with the strong recovery of downstream demand, has pushed the price of lithium carbonate to rise strongly. It also triggered extensive discussions on the supply and demand pattern and long-term trend of the global lithium market.
On February 25, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports (including in-transit goods) in order to strengthen mineral supervision and accountability. In the future, only enterprises with valid mining rights and approved concentrators will be qualified for export, and agents and third-party traders will be prohibited from exporting. When applying, the enterprise shall submit a letter of advice from the provincial mining office on mineral processing capacity and compliance, and declare the mineral composition. Violators (such as renewal of expired pending) will revoke export licenses and even mining rights.
As an important participant in the global supply of lithium resources, Zimbabwe has recently introduced a series of export control measures for lithium ore, which has become the core variable stirring up the global lithium market. On February 17, the Ministry of Mines took the lead in announcing the adjustment of the export process of all minerals and refined minerals, which directly led to temporary delays in the processing and issuance of export licenses for mining companies, and required all units applying for new export licenses and renewal of existing licenses to submit applications at least one month in advance. Relevant departments should simultaneously promote the development of export license management system to strengthen the standardized supervision of mineral exports.
Only eight days later, on February 25, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines further upgraded its control.
According to the policy rules, in the future, only enterprises with valid mining rights and approved concentrators will be qualified to export lithium ore, and agents and third-party traders will be prohibited from participating in export business; When applying for an export license, an enterprise shall submit a letter of advice from the provincial mining office on the mineral processing capacity and compliance, and truthfully declare the mineral composition. Violators will face severe penalties for the revocation of the export license and even the mining right. According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network, the country plans to ban export of concentrates in 2027 in principle. At present, only enterprises with local production capacity of lithium salt or lithium sulfate can apply for export licenses for lithium concentrates, and lithium sulfate is still allowed to be exported. According to the latest data from
the US Geological Survey, Zimbabwe's lithium production is expected to reach 28000 tons (in terms of lithium content) in 2025, second only to Argentina, China and Chile, accounting for about 10% of global production, while 19% of China's imported lithium concentrates come from the country, and its share of global lithium production is expected to increase to 12% in 2026. Industry analysts pointed out that the intensive tightening of Zimbabwe's export policy has not affected the normal production of local mines, and related enterprises are actively applying for export licenses, but in the short term, it will inevitably lead to delays in the delivery of lithium concentrates, further exacerbating the supply shortage in the global lithium market, especially for the Chinese market, which is highly dependent on the import of lithium ore from the country, The short-term supply pressure will be more prominent.
In fact, Zimbabwe's policy change is not an isolated event, and the global supply side of lithium carbonate is facing multiple constraints. Industry analysis shows that the construction cycle of lithium mine projects is generally as long as 4 to 6 years, and the environmental protection approval is becoming more and more stringent, the release rhythm of new production capacity is slow, and the overall increment of the supply side is limited due to the factors such as routine maintenance of some lithium salt enterprises during the Spring Festival, while the early clearance of high-cost production capacity further reduces the elastic space of effective production capacity. In this context, UBS and other institutions have already predicted in the research report of February 5 that the global lithium carbonate market will be in short supply in 2026, and the lithium market may usher in the third price cycle, and the price of lithium carbonate in 2026 is expected to be raised to 26000 US dollars/ton (converted to 180000 yuan/ton at the exchange rate at that time). The short-term disturbance on the
supply side resonates with the outbreak of downstream demand and becomes the core driving force for the price rise of lithium carbonate. From the demand side, the rapid rise of the energy storage industry has become a key engine for the growth of lithium demand. In the short term, it is affected by the adjustment of the US tariff policy (the cancellation of some additional tariffs and the reduction of the comprehensive tariff cost by about 5%), and the expectation of the adjustment of the domestic lithium export tax rebate policy from April 1 is superimposed. The trend of "grabbing exports" in the energy storage industry is obvious, which further boosts the demand for lithium carbonate. Industry insiders said that the importance of lithium demand in the field of energy storage is increasing. Energy storage is expected to account for 42% of global lithium demand in 2035, compared with 8% in 2020. In 2026, the new increase in lithium demand for energy storage is expected to exceed that of power batteries for the first time, becoming the largest source of demand for lithium carbonate. More noteworthy is that for energy storage systems , the cost of raw materials has less impact than cost of modules and batteries, which also provides a stable support for the sustained growth of lithium demand.
On the whole, the high growth trend of global lithium demand has become a consensus. According to UBS's forecast, global lithium demand will grow by 14% in 2026 and 16% in 2027. The long-term outlook is optimistic. Global lithium demand will double to 3.4 million tons in 2030 from 1.7 million tons in 2025. By 2035, the annual compound growth rate of the market will reach 13%. In addition, after the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises resumed production in an orderly manner, and the production schedule in March is expected to be good, which is expected to return to full production and further release the demand potential. The effect of resonance between
supply and demand has been directly reflected in the price trend of lithium carbonate. After the Spring Festival, the lithium carbonate market ushered in a "good start" with a strong rise. On February 24, the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the main contract of lithium carbonate soared 11.69%, the biggest one-day increase since its listing, closing at 164120 yuan/ton; On February 25, directly stimulated by the change of Zimbabwe's export policy, the main contract rose by 6.48%, touching a high of 171440 yuan/ton, closing at 166,480 yuan/ton on the same day, with a cumulative increase of nearly 17% in two trading days; As of 11:25 on February 26, the main contract price of lithium carbonate rose further to 178366 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.57%, reaching a maximum of 187700 yuan/ton. According to the data of Shanghai Steel Union and Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network, the price range of high-quality battery-grade lithium carbonate market on February 24 is 147200-162400 yuan/ton, and the price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 144000-159500 yuan/ton, which is about 9250 yuan higher than previous trading day. Industry insiders are generally optimistic about the future trend of lithium
carbonate market, but they also suggest that attention should be paid to potential risks. Institutional analysts believe that the lithium price center is expected to enter a rising trend stage, UBS has raised the domestic average price of lithium carbonate including tax by 26% to 170000 yuan/ton in 2026, and is expected to rise to 200000 yuan/ton in 2027. In the long run, under the background of global energy structure transformation, the "two-wheel drive" of new energy vehicles and energy storage will continue to promote the growth of lithium demand, while the constraints on the supply side are difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the tight balance between supply and demand may be maintained for a long time. However, the industry also reminds us that we need to focus on the price fluctuation risk brought by the recovery rhythm of demand, the change of overseas lithium export policy, geopolitics and other factors. At the same time, the gradual release of renewable lithium production capacity and the innovation breakthrough of lithium extraction technology may become an important support to alleviate the long-term supply pressure and promote the industry to achieve high-quality development.
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