[编译]马来西亚水泥价格暴涨40%的真相竟是?

2019-06-27 11:18:18

2019年6月中旬,马来西亚水泥和混凝土突然宣布涨价40%,引起市场恐慌。政府已介入……

  近期,马来西亚竞争委员会(Malaysia Competition Commission)表示将格外关注水泥行业。委员会表示,已注意到水泥和混凝土生产商最近的价格上涨,并且已经和贸易和消费者事务部(Ministry of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs)合作。另外,委员会还表示,它很清楚最近YTL和拉法基的合并,这导致市场在上游和下游更加集中。

  发生这种状况的背景是,2019年6月中旬,至少有一家未具名的水泥生产商宣布涨价40%,导致终端用户惊慌失措,当地媒体报道了此事。马来西亚水泥混凝土协会在被问询此事时,曾为价格上涨进行了辩护,原因是各种各样的投入成本不断上升。公平地说,马来西亚竞争委员会在2017年发布的一份报告中承认,由于投入成本该行业面临价格压力。

  目前,政府已经参与其中,贸易和消费者事务的负责人表示,生产商已经同意不提价,任何未来的计划价格调整都将首先与监管层面“讨论”,让局势稳定了下来。随后,马来西亚财政部长林冠英呼吁对马来西亚东部的价格开展调查,以确定是否类似卡特尔的行为导致砂劳越水泥价格上涨。他指出,该州的价格“明显”高于马来西亚半岛。作为回应,CMS水泥首席执行官苏莱曼直接回击了这一说法,他指责马来西亚半岛的行业并购,并表示公司近期没有涨价计划。苏莱曼提到,对马来西亚半岛和砂劳越之间价格差异的任何潜在调查,都将表明这家水泥生产商自2016年初以来没有提价。“我们欢迎调查有两个原因,首先这将表明,价格差异纯粹是由于最近激烈的价格战,这也导致了在马来西亚半岛的行业并购”,苏莱曼说,“其次,这种性质的调查也将一劳永逸地表明,砂劳越不是,也从未是水泥行业的垄断者。”

  正如马来西亚竞争委员会善意指出的那样,在拉法基豪瑞将其在当地的子公司剥离给YTL大约一个月后,整个风波就发生了。该委员会同意YTL收购马来西亚拉法基,它清楚YTL将拥有马来西亚逾一半的产能。考虑到这一点,委员会在面对哪怕是一点点市场不当行为时,想表现得强硬一点不管这种行为是否真实存在,并不令人意外。

  正如马来西亚竞争委员会在其声明中所暗示的那样,当地水泥行业产能过剩。此外,自2015年以来,国内需求一直在萎缩。根据最新数据,马来西亚全国拥有11家综合水泥厂,产能达2710万吨/年。2015年产量达到2470万吨的高点,2017年下降至1880万吨。马来西亚水泥和混凝土协会的数据展示了一个更坏的局面,如果将综合粉磨能力考虑进去,2016年的行业产能利用率仅为59%。2018年底,拉法基马来西亚收入下降,税前亏损9770万美元。不久之后,拉法基宣布将退出该国以及邻国新加坡的水泥市场。

  理论上,YTL的收购本应能解决马来西亚产能过剩问题,因为它要么通过合并两家公司获得协同效应,要么关闭部分工厂。当然,这一体系似乎在一定程度上发挥了作用,因为拟议的40%的价格上涨并没有发生。然而,如果政府是对选民而不是市场做出反应,它可能无限期地延长产能和需求缺口。在这种情况下,拉法基退出东南亚的决定可能是有先见之明的。

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