Subtractive Economy of Cement in Stock Time

First, why does the consumption of cement drop dramatically? There is a serious excess of housing stock

in urban and rural areas, and the incremental demand for housing has completely peaked. With the end of urban-rural dual economic structure and the end of urbanization, the total nominal per capita housing area in urban and rural areas exceeds 100 square meters, while the per capita area of reasonable and livable society is only 40-50 square meters. Nearly half of the domestic housing stock is inefficient redundant assets, which will be phased out in the future, and the incremental demand for large-scale new real estate construction will be completely terminated. The deep aging of the

population has completely changed the logic of housing demand. With the decline of the proportion of young population and the continuous growth of the elderly population, the elderly are unable to afford the cleaning, maintenance and operation costs of large-sized houses. The demand for housing has shifted from large-sized houses to small-sized, lightweight and low-maintenance houses, and the demand for incremental housing construction in the whole society has continued to shrink.

The national population mobility has declined, and the new demand for infrastructure and housing has contracted. After the reform and opening up, the dividend of the inland population flowing to the southeast coast has subsided, the floating population has gradually settled down or retired and returned home, and the cross-regional population flow has been greatly reduced. The redundant houses of families are gradually cleared, and they no longer hold multiple houses for a long time; the supporting facilities in the city are becoming more and more perfect, the rental housing is popular, the population lives nearby, the large-scale infrastructure expansion cycle in the city is over, and the focus of construction is shifted to partial renewal.

The social economy has entered a steady low growth cycle, and the driving force of traditional construction has disappeared. Farewell to high-speed economic growth, rising welfare demands of residents, rising proportion of retired population, continuous consumption of economic growth by social welfare, long-term downward shift of economic growth center, and complete end of the incremental construction mode driven by large-scale real estate, new areas and infrastructure.

Industry demand has turned to stock renewal in an all-round way, and the volume of construction has shrunk dramatically. In the future, the demand for cement will only rely on urban renewal, rural reconstruction, old roads and infrastructure repair, without the support of large-scale new construction projects. According to the reasonable renewal cycle, the annual consumption of cement and cementitious materials in China will continue to decline, and will be close to the 700 million tons center in the long run.

The material technology was upgraded iteratively, and the cement consumption per unit project continued to decrease. Continuous optimization of cement clinker grade and production process, maturity and popularization of various industrial solid waste micro-powder and active waste residue stimulation technologies, continuous optimization of concrete mix proportion, continuous reduction of engineering clinker and pure cement consumption per cubic meter, large-scale replacement of cement by solid waste powder, further compression of the overall demand for cement. The new process of clinker production from

solid waste has been put into operation on a large scale, and the traditional limestone cement market has been extremely squeezed. At present, solid waste recycling production lines such as phosphogypsum acid co-production of cement clinker and carbide slag production of cement clinker continue to be centralized and put into operation, replacing limestone raw materials with industrial solid waste to produce qualified clinker, occupying the market share of traditional limestone-based cement clinker and ordinary cement on a large scale, and reducing the production and marketing space of conventional cement. It is expected that the total market capacity of cement and cementitious materials in China will be reduced to 700 million tons in ten years, of which the cement produced with traditional limestone as the main raw material will be reduced to 400 million to 500 million tons, and the corresponding production capacity of limestone-based cement clinker will be reduced to 300 million tons. The supply and demand pattern of the traditional cement industry will face an extremely severe situation of reduction and liquidation.

Two, how to do a good job of cement subtraction economy in the stock era? The top cement groups in the

country must be fully aware of the seriousness of the future situation. Only by recognizing this seriousness can we attach great importance to it ideologically and really do a good job in the subtraction economy.

The head group can not rely on the free competition mode to achieve its own safe landing. Under the extreme shrinkage of the market, the process of clearing the competitors by competition is likely to drag itself down first; the reasonable path is to accelerate the merger, reorganization and combination of the industry, so as to form a comprehensive control of the national cement production capacity by several major groups. On this basis, each major group rationally speeds up its own production capacity, including the active liquidation of advanced production capacity; for example, 95% of the national cement clinker production capacity is controlled within three to five enterprise groups, and each group shuts down 10% -15% of the clinker production lines annually according to the proportion, and finally only retains 20% -30% of the clinker production capacity; At the same time, the implementation of regional division of labor, the major groups to give priority to the distribution of production capacity to their own comparative advantage areas, from the weak areas to withdraw voluntarily, do not cross-regional price, mutual restraint, otherwise it will only hurt each other and lead to common destruction.

In the process of integration and contraction of production lines, we should rely on employees to stop recruiting after retirement, continue to optimize the combination of personnel, and use natural retirement to achieve staff reduction, rather than being forced to reduce staff by violence in the end, so as to avoid the impact on social stability.

Major groups should actively communicate with the relevant ministries and commissions of the state to change industry awareness: to make the regulatory level clear, traditional industries must be guided to improve the direction of concentration, encourage enterprises to concentrate moderately, change the inherent view that "concentration is equal to monopoly", and strive for policy support for orderly industry integration and active capacity reduction. Smooth completion of the subtractive economy.

Moderately participate in the international market and rationally promote "going out". After the increasing pressure of competition in the domestic industry, many enterprises want to turn to overseas development, but they must grasp the rhythm and keep moderate. If we rush headlong into mass action, five to ten years later, the overseas cement market will also be disrupted by excessive investment and fall into serious overcapacity, which will lead to vicious competition and collapse of international cement prices . China's cement industry will therefore bear negative evaluation and even become an international public enemy, which must be clearly recognized. The existing clinker production lines along the Yangtze River and coastal areas should be given priority to the construction of grinding stations overseas, export surplus domestic clinker to local grinding and processing, and do not blindly build new clinker production lines overseas. From a practical point of view, it is very difficult to obtain support for new cement production lines in developed countries; to build factories in underdeveloped areas such as Africa, historical experience shows that it is difficult to cultivate the local market, the actual flow is less than expected, and the overall risk is very high. The old road of domestic overcapacity and vicious competition should not be copied to the international market.

Actively invest in innovative industries and promote the transformation of the group. The domestic cement industry must speed up the integration and restore the market price to about 60% -80% of the average price in the international market, so that the cement industry can obtain better benefits. In addition to improving employee welfare and paying taxes according to law, these benefits should be actively invested in innovative industries and gradually transform major groups into investment-oriented industrial groups. It is necessary to minimize direct manipulation and personal involvement in the operation of innovative industries, because there are significant differences between the traditional genes of the cement industry and the genes of innovative industries, and the direct operation is inefficient and risky. After the transformation into an investment group, the future industry should be appropriately distributed; at the same time, the future industry also has a cycle, which can be distributed at the low point of the industry and held for a long time, so as to prolong the life of the enterprise.

Large groups should avoid taking actions that sound beautiful but are actually ineffective. One is to blindly extend the industrial chain, from aggregate to cement and then to concrete, which will lead to serious overcapacity of aggregate and concrete; even if the industrial chain is extended, it should be based on industrial integration, rather than blindly expanding production capacity. Second, simply rely on the continuous improvement of environmental protection, emissions, comprehensive utilization of resources to gain competitive advantage; if you do this, others will do the same, this kind of homogenization of advanced, the more advanced, the greater the harm to each other, has no real significance. The third is to use the advantage of capital to consume for a long time with the intention of consuming the opponent to death. This is of little significance. If the opponent is not able to take advantage of the situation after consuming the opponent, the opponent will easily be taken over by others and come back to life, and the enterprise will continue to invest capital to consume the opponent. Therefore, in the era of subtraction economy, we must conform to the objective law of the era of stock economy, adapt to market changes, and learn from foreign advanced enterprises. We need to reflect deeply on why the scale of a single domestic enterprise has exceeded the scale of the world's largest group, but the benefits of others are very good, and our benefits are very poor. We must be brave after shame, abandon the wrong thinking logic, adopt the correct method, concentrate on good, and work together for win-win results. Zhuge Wenda

of

Zhejiang Enterprise Federation (General Chamber of Commerce), Chairman of Century Xinfeng Science and Technology Group